Damaging Wind in Texas, June 16, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
345 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The word of the week looks to be wet. There is an upper level low
descending into the Pacific NW and the low that is moving up from
the Baja that is the remnants of Bud. We are already seeing
showers and thunderstorms from Bud in New Mexico along the border,
creeping into Oldham and Hartley counties. Expect these storms to
continue shifting easterly into our area over the afternoon and
evening hours. CAMs indicate the storms will be linear and hold
together until around 10PM, and then as the line continues to push
east, it will break apart. Soundings show PWAT values to be 1.2
to 1.3 which is near the max for this time of year. Storms could
dump quite a bit of rain and cause localized flooding issues. As
Bud gets pulled into the main flow, the area will see a bit of a
break so to speak with slighter chances on storms to begin the
workweek.

Monday and Tuesday will see the upper low in the northwest start
to slide east. This will allow for a series of shortwaves to bring
vort maxes over the area. Combine these with deep gulf moisture
pumping up to the Panhandles will bring many chances for precip
over the entire area. Long range models show another upper level
low attempting to descend but ride along the northern border with
Canada late in the week. The models have held off on the frontal
passage from the beginning of the week until more towards Thursday
or Friday. The front looks to spur on more storms at the end of
the week. Through the week, most of the indications for storms are
that they should generally remain below severe levels; however,
Wed and Thurs appear to have the best chances for storms to become
supercellular. Heavy rain will be the biggest threat all week with
all the storms.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  87  67  89  66 /  60  40  20  20  30
Beaver OK                  74  90  72  94  70 /  50  40  20  20  30
Boise City OK              65  86  64  90  65 /  90  10  10   5  20
Borger TX                  73  89  70  92  69 /  60  40  20  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              69  88  67  91  67 /  70  30  20  10  20
Canyon TX                  68  87  67  90  66 /  50  40  20  20  30
Clarendon TX               73  88  70  91  69 /  40  40  20  20  40
Dalhart TX                 67  83  64  91  66 /  80  20  10   5  20
Guymon OK                  70  87  68  93  68 /  70  20  20  10  20
Hereford TX                65  85  65  89  66 /  60  30  20  10  20
Lipscomb TX                76  91  72  92  70 /  30  30  20  20  40
Pampa TX                   70  87  68  89  66 /  50  40  30  20  30
Shamrock TX                75  93  73  92  71 /  30  30  20  20  40
Wellington TX              75  94  74  93  71 /  30  30  20  20  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

14/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
230 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-170900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
230 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to begin this
afternoon across the western one-third of the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. Thunderstorm chances will increase tonight and
spread east to include all of the area. No severe thunderstorms
are expected. Heavy rains will be possible with some of the
storms, possibly leading to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are expected each day across the Panhandles. Strong
storms will be possible and severe storms cannot be ruled out,
but the main thunderstorm hazard will likely be the potential for
heavy rainfall, possibly leading to localized flooding or flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Beat