The remnant circulation from Hurricane Bud shifted northward through Baja California and into the desert southwest on June 16, 2018. An area of light to moderate rain moved northeast across New Mexico during the early morning hours of the 16th with widespread amounts between one quarter and one half inch reported.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
The remnant circulation from Hurricane Bud shifted northward through Baja California and into the desert southwest on June 16, 2018. An area of light to moderate rain moved northeast across New Mexico during the early morning hours of the 16th with widespread amounts between one quarter and one half inch reported. Enough instability was present over the area by the afternoon to allow scattered thunderstorms to develop across central and eastern New Mexico. An additional one quarter to one half inch of rain with gusty outflow winds occurred with this second round of precipitation. The strongest storm impacted the area around Roswell where strong downburst winds downed a few power lines. Fortunately no flooding was reported on burn scars across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 16, 10:52 AM MST, 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1152 AM MDT Sat Jun 16 2018 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A rather wet pattern will remain over New Mexico through tonight with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Many central to western areas of the state will observe occasional MVFR conditions in moderate rainfall through at least the evening, while thunderstorms will be possible in the late afternoon. In eastern New Mexico, thunderstorms will be most likely in the early afternoon as a north- south oriented line of convection drifts toward TX. Any storms will be capable of gusty downburst winds with some stronger cells capable of producing large hail in eastern New Mexico. Precipitation will decrease in coverage through the late night hours, with generally isolated to scattered storms expected into Sunday. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT Sat Jun 16 2018... .SYNOPSIS... Subtropical moisture from the remnants of tropical system Bud being transported northward across the western and central New Mexico this morning will expand eastward this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms today through this evening will generally produce one quarter to one half an inch of much needed rainfall across the region, though higher amounts will be possible, especially across the east central and northeast plains. As a trough of upper low pressure moves across Arizona and northern New Mexico Sunday, deeper layer moisture will move east into Texas with lingering showers and thunderstorms across portions of the eastern plains and northern portions of the state. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday evening across the eastern plains. Weak upper level disturbances and a moist southeast low level flow will bring chances of afternoon and evening showers to areas east of the central mountains in the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Flow of subtropical moisture from the remnants of tropical system Bud between an upper level high pressure center over the southern Mississippi Valley and an upper level trough over southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula is producing light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms across western NM and portions of central NM in the predawn hours this morning. Radar is showing the strongest radar returns moving from north central MX into southwest NM at 09Z. Models are projecting increasing showers and thunderstorm activity across western and central NM this morning through this evening, expanding eastward across the eastern plains this afternoon and evening. Models are generally indicating rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.50 inches across much of northern and central NM with locally higher amounts. A flash flood watch is in effect through 00Z Sunday for portions of the western highlands, where burn scars from the Bluewater and Diener Canyon Wildfires and the Buzzard Wildfire will be especially vulnerable. A flash flood watch is also in effect for the East Slopes of the Sangre de Cristos and the far Northeast Highlands from 12Z this morning through 03Z this evening with the Ute Park burn scars presenting areas of heightened risk. The timing of the arrival of deeper layer moisture across the eastern plains this afternoon and evening should allow for stronger surface heating and higher instability to develop. This should allow thunderstorms to become stronger across the eastern plains with higher chances of heavier rainfall. The models are pointing toward rainfall totals of one inch or greater across portions of the eastern plains with the greatest likelihood in the east central and northeast plains. Increasing clouds and widespread rainfall today will result in much cooler than normal temperatures across the area. High temperatures today are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal in eastern NM and 10 to 20 degrees below normal across central and western NM. The upper level trough to the west will move across eastern AZ and northern NM Sunday. This system will bring a drier southwest to west-southwest flow of air to the region. Dynamics ahead of the trough and lingering moisture will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of northern NM and the eastern plains. The trough will also keep a pool of cooler air aloft which will result in high temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal despite increasing sunshine. Temperatures will moderate to near to slightly below normal Monday, as weak high pressure aloft builds over NM. Weak south to southeast low level flow Monday will bring an increase in moisture to the eastern plains, where slight chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected late Monday afternoon through evening. The base of a large upper level trough will move across northern AZ on Tuesday and northern NM on Wednesday. This system will produce southeast flow east of the central mountains with increasing low level moisture and chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms both days. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be slightly below normal. Northwest flow aloft over NM is shown by both the GFS and ECMWF Thursday and Friday with temperatures near to slightly below normal. Weak disturbances in the upper level northwest flow will have the potential to produce showers and thunderstorms across the northeast and east central plains Thursday and Friday during the afternoon and evening. 28 && .FIRE WEATHER... A widespread wetting rain event is underway as tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bud streams north into Arizona and New Mexico ahead of an approaching Pacific low, which is in the process of opening up into a shortwave trough. Flash flooding on/near fresh burn scars (i.e. Buzzard, Diener Canyon, Ute Park, etc.) is likely today into tonight. Look for a significant downtrend in storm coverage and wetting rain Sunday as drier air filters in behind the departing shortwave trough. A warming/drying trend will ensue Monday as an upper level low slowly meanders across the Great Basin, allowing drying associated with the westerlies to work further east into central New Mexico. A hot, dry and unstable airmass will then prevail across western New Mexico going into the middle of next week, with storms and wetting rain likely confined to the eastern plains. The 00Z medium range model solutions diverge from mid to late next week with the placement and eastward extent of the eastern Pacific upper high and the progression of troughs moving southeast from the Pacific Northwest. Lower forecast confidence for late next week, but daytime temperatures look to be near normal and wetting rain should continue to be limited to eastern New Mexico. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones... NMZ515-528. Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ506-508-509. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 349 AM MDT Sat Jun 16 2018 NMZ501>540-171100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 349 AM MDT Sat Jun 16 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Subtropical moisture from the remnants of tropical system Bud will move across the region today through this evening with areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall expected. There will be a risk of flash flooding across portions of the western highlands and northeast highlands, especially in areas with burn scars caused by the Buzzard, Ute Park, Bluewater and Diener Canyon wildfires. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Low level southeast flow will bring increasing moisture to the eastern plains Tuesday and Wednesday, while an upper level trough moves across northern AZ and NM. This environment will have the potential to produce isolated severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains in the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. The main storm threats will be strong to damaging winds and large hail. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. 28
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2018
NMZ538-161800-
Chaves County Plains-
1134 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL NOON
MDT...
At 1132 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 9 miles west northwest of Roswell to 8
miles northwest of Cottonwood. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Roswell, Dexter, Hagerman, Lake Arthur, Bitter Lake Wildlife Refuge,
Bottomless Lakes State Park, Greenfield, Roswell Correctional
Facility and Midway.
This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 79 and 118.
&&
LAT...LON 3340 10480 3360 10435 3301 10397 3296 10434
3296 10452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 251DEG 28KT 3336 10470 3302 10448
44Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1207 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2018 NMZ537-538-161830- Chaves County Plains-De Baca County- 1207 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHAVES AND SOUTH CENTRAL DE BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM MDT... At 1206 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles south of Mesa to near Dexter. Movement was northeast at 30 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms. Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Eastern Roswell, Bitter Lake Wildlife Refuge, Bottomless Lakes State Park and Midway. This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 98 and 147. && LAT...LON 3408 10438 3331 10411 3324 10448 3386 10470 TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 242DEG 15KT 3383 10460 3324 10441 44
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1210 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2018 NMZ538-161845- Chaves County Plains- 1210 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM MDT... At 1208 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Dexter to 6 miles south of Artesia. Movement was northeast at 30 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms. Heavy rain, strong downburst winds, and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Dexter, Hagerman, Lake Arthur and Greenfield. This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 79 and 97. && LAT...LON 3324 10448 3331 10411 3297 10411 3296 10448 TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 205DEG 25KT 3321 10442 3276 10440 24
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 151 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:13 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Power lines reported down in and around Roswell. Damage amounts are a very rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, June 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 751203.