Drought in Texas, July 24 to 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across deep
south Texas early this morning. Some passing high level clouds are
possible at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the next
24 hours courtesy of high pressure at the surface and aloft. South-
southeast winds will continue around 10 knots overnight with winds
becoming moderate to breezy by mid-morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Solid VFR is expected through the next 24 hours
courtesy of high pressure at the surface and in the middle layers
of the atmosphere. Moderate to breezy winds are anticipated with
clear skies.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): A large H5 ridge
centered over New Mexico and extending on one side into the
northwest Gulf will provide subsidence and will result in some of
the hottest temperatures of the year across deep south Texas
today. Mostly clear skies and light winds will prevail tonight,
with overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Little
change is expected on Tuesday, with more hot and dry weather in
the short term forecast, though a weak front will push south into
Texas, and the upper ridge will fade a bit to the west. Indeed,
afternoon high temperatures will reach or top the century mark for
most inland areas. High temperature records will be well within
reach on Tuesday, with the record high at BRO 98 degs, at HRL 102,
and at MFE 105. Heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees will be
attained without much effort, with a few locations briefly topping
the 110 mark. A few high clouds will be possible, with otherwise
expect mostly sunny skies and light to moderate southeast to south
winds.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): The ridge of infinite heat
continues to wobble across the western US, centered on the Four
Corners region, while a large-scale trough remains in place
across the Eastern US. With the ridge in that position, flow aloft
remains from the north, holding most atmospheric moisture
offshore and to the south. Models have been picking up on a very
weak shortwave diving southward around the periphery of the ridge
early Wednesday. Models have backed off of rain chances, as
moisture remains limited, and the fact we're in a strong dry
spell. Have kept 20 PoPs for the coastal areas, but this may even
be generous. The ridge remains dominant into at least the weekend,
and lack of a significant weather system moving off the Gulf
makes me pessimistic for any precipitation through the weekend as
well. Overall confidence on rain at any point in the long term
remains very low. With the ridge centering farther away to the
west, temperatures may nudge downward a degree or two for the
latter half of the week. But heat index reading will remain in the
108-112 range each afternoon into the weekend.

MARINE:
Now through Tuesday night: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
will interact with lower pressure inland to produce moderate to
strong southeast to south winds and moderate seas through this
evening. Small craft should exercise caution conditions will be
headlined through this evening. A weaker gradient will prevail on
Tuesday, as high pressure over the southern Plains pushes south
and equalizes surface pressure differences, with light to moderate
winds and low to moderate seas. A few showers may develop over the
off shore waters Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday: The latter half of the week sees neither
high pressure or low pressure exerting influence over the
northwest Gulf. This will keep winds light through the period,
with seas remaining 2 feet or less into the weekend.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
328 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

TXZ248>257-351-353-242030-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
328 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Heat index values of 105 to 109 through around 9 pm can be
expected otherwise, No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat index will peak on Tuesday and could range from 108 to 113
in general across the region. Values will slip back to 105 to 110
Wednesday through Friday. A heat advisory may be needed for some
areas on Tuesday for potentially dangerous heat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-242030-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
328 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.