Drought in Texas, July 1 to 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
01/06Z TAFs. For most of the forecast period, VFR conditions
should exist. Shallow ground fog cannot be ruled out entirely
across central Oklahoma up toward KPNC terminals due to todays
rain and light wind, but confidence low enough not to include with
this issuance. There will be the chance for TSRA first 6 to 9
hours of forecast across northern Oklahoma and again tomorrow
afternoon farther south as weak cold front moves into the region
and stalls. Lack of any substantial cap and plenty of moisture
will yield potential for scattered storms near front and outflows.
Mainly MVFR in and near TSRA. Less wind this forecast cycle with
northerly wind shift over all but southwest Oklahoma and KSPS
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018/

AVIATION...
01/00Z TAFs. Primarily VFR conditions expected through the
period. Current complex of TSRA will continue to move north and
east and out of terminal areas. Weak frontal boundary will move
through at least northern one-half of Oklahoma tomorrow, and along
with a north-northeast wind shift, additional storms possible
near and north of this front. MVFR conditions likely with any
storm along with strong wind gusts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Update...

Small cluster of storms over southwest/central Oklahoma will
continue north and northeast through the early evening.  Main
hazard will be damaging winds with some hail. Storms may move
north and east of the FA by early evening with other storms
moving into northern/western Oklahoma during the late evening
and overnight.

A remnant area of precipitation over western Texas will aid the
development of at least widely scattered, deep convection this
afternoon and evening. Strong heating may also result in other
isolated storms. Initial development has already occurred over
western north Texas early this afternoon. Additional storms will
continue to form north and east of a small cluster west of
Wichita Falls. Deep layer shear will not be too strong, but
moderate instability will support the potential for strong
damaging winds and some hail. Some of the storms will also produce
locally heavy rainfall.

Additional storms will be possible overnight, as a shortwave
trough moves across the central and northern Plains. Better
coverage will likely be over Kansas, but enough storm
organization may allow storms to move into at least northern and
perhaps central Oklahoma with a strengthening low level jet. An
outflow boundary/weak cold front should bring a brief return of
north to northeast winds as far south as Interstate 40 (perhaps
farther south 12z NAM12).

Thunderstorms may linger through mid to late Sunday morning, with
additional storms possible during peak heating in southern and
central Oklahoma.

With the exception of an isolated afternoon/early evening thunderstorms,
most of Monday and Tuesday should be hot and dry. An easterly
wave may increase chances on Wednesday, but the majority of
showers and storms should be across eastern and southern Texas.

The "dominant ridge" wording may be required by the end of next week
with a 599 dam high centered over the central plains. Storm
chances with this pattern will be confined to southern Oklahoma
and northern Texas.

With the potential of slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday and
an outflow boundary, the Heat Advisory will not be extended into
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  72  90  74 /  80  30  40  20
Hobart OK         96  74  95  74 /  50  30  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  98  78  97  75 /  30  20  30  20
Gage OK           92  70  87  71 /  20  50  20  20
Ponca City OK     95  71  89  73 /  70  70  40  20
Durant OK         95  76  94  76 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

03/12/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe storms from just north of Lawton
and Ardmore, northward through most of central Oklahoma into
north-central Oklahoma.

Location...
This risk area covers Weatherford, Pauls Valley, the OKC metro,
Enid, Stillwater, and Ponca City.

Timing...
Through 8 PM. The threat will decrease from south to north through
the afternoon and evening hours as storms move north and
northeast.

Impacts... The primary severe weather
concern will be wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, but hail up to the
size of golfballs will also be possible.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk area should prepare for severe weather operations this
evening.

.Heat...
Heat index values from 100 to 106 degrees are expected across
the eastern half of Oklahoma into the evening. If outdoors, limit
strenuous activities, take frequent breaks and stay hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Heat...
Heat index values from 100 to 106 degrees are forecast for
much of Oklahoma. If outdoors, limit strenuous activities, take
frequent breaks, and stay hydrated.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and Sunday evening, and
again Wednesday and Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
703 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELMORE CITY             34.62N 97.40W
06/30/2018                   GARVIN             OK   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES DAMAGED, LARGE TREE BLOWN OVER

&&

OUN