Drought in Texas, July 1 to 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1241 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.AVIATION...
The small complex of convection that was approaching KLBB and KPVW
has diminished over the past hour, leaving nothing but a few
sprinkles, passing mid/high clouds and erratic but relatively
light winds. VFR is expected to prevail through the overnight
with light southerly breezes becoming established. Attention then
turns north to a cold front currently moving into far northeast
NM and the OK Panhandle. This front will lose momentum as it
continues southward, but should pass through the northern
terminals around or shortly after daybreak and KLBB by 14-15Z.
Post-frontal northeasterly winds will gradually veer easterly
during the afternoon. The moist upslope flow and daytime heating
will fuel isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon, with convection persisting into the evening hours.
Gusty and erratic winds and reduced visibility in locally heavy
downpours will be possible, but uncertainty in the timing and
location of the convection preclude an explicit mention in the
TAFs. Outside of storm impacts VFR will be the rule.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018/

DISCUSSION...

A plume of mid level moisture extends from Mexico up through the
Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms that
skirted our southeastern counties has entered Oklahoma. All other
lingering showers from overnight have dissipated. Hi-res models do
not have a good handle on any additional storms this evening and
have kept PoPs highest around 40% in the eastern half of the CWA.
The cold front is still on track to move through Sunday morning.
The GFS and EURO are now more progressive and push the front
through most of the South Plains before it stalls out. The NAM has
a decent area of precip ahead of the front between 03-09Z. The
GFS also has some precip but keeps it to our east. Similar to this
afternoon have PoPs 20-40% for the eastern half of the CWA.
Temperatures will range from the upper 80s in the northwest where
the front will move through earlier to the upper 90s in the
southeast. If the front speeds up or cloud coverage is more
extensive, high temperatures may need to be brought down a few
degrees.

A strong ridge will set up over the midwest starting Wednesday and
will keep us in easterly flow through the end of the week. This
should help bring temperatures down a few degrees to the low 90s.
The wave along the Gulf coast will move east to west through the
week. The placement of the wave is slightly further south which
should keep the bulk of the rain to our southeast. Have kept a slight
chance of rain mostly for the Rolling Plains from Thursday into next
weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
502 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

TXZ021>044-302215-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
502 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected the outlook
area this afternoon and evening, Wind gusts to 60 mph, small hail,
and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the strongest
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area on Sunday, and
again across the western portions of the Caprock on Monday. The
threat of severe weather with this activity is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.