Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in Texas, January 27 to 30, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
552 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Needless to say, not good flying conditions over the next 12-24
hours across the region. Rain associated with advancing mid-level
shortwave has spread to just about the entire forecast area and
will continue to develop, along with lowering ceilings, through
the reminder of the morning. Widely scattered thunder is noted on
88Ds and has been inserted in some form across the srn terminals
for the initial time frame. Rain will eventually end from west to
east later this afternoon as the sfc front sweeps through the
region, leaving behind continued low ceilings with some fog
potential through tonight.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2018/

DISCUSSION...A short wave is moving across the plains this
morning along with an associated Pacific cold front. Ahead of the
front gulf moisture is streaming northward.

The cold front will continue to advance toward SETX and Louisiana
today while lift ahead of the short wave combines with ample
moisture to produce one half to 4 inches of rainfall. Higher
amounts are expected over sections of Acadiana with 2 to 4 and
locally higher amounts possible. Generally minor flooding will be
possible, unless storms train over urban areas for a few hours. An
FF watch has be hoisted for the day for those areas. Was on the
fence for SETX (Jefferson and Orange), but guidance was slightly
less there (1-3") with heavier rain ending earlier. Opted not to
extend the FF watch into the area, however short term guidance has
increased a bit from earlier. Will keep monitoring the situation
there and may extend into the area.

Rain chances will decrease from west to east late this afternoon
through tonight as the cold front moves through. The Pacific air
mass will generally just maintain coolish temps into Monday,
however a clipper will sweep through the central sections of the
country early next week. This will allow a cooler Canadian air
mass to again spill south to the gulf. Slightly below normal temps
are expected Tue and Wed with a slight warm up into late week
ahead of the next colder air mass.

MARINE...Showers, storms, and sea fog will occur across the
coastal water today, however a front will push across the waters
tonight clearing the area.

A moderate offshore flow is expected Sunday and Monday. Low water
advisories also look likely as predicted levels are around -1 due
to astronomical conditions. The offshore winds will also push
levels down more.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  53  63  38 / 100  30  10   0
LCH  64  54  65  43 / 100  30  10   0
LFT  65  55  65  43 / 100  50  10   0
BPT  67  55  66  44 / 100  30  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ215-216.

GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ472-475.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
438 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
281045-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
438 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flooding from heavy rain along and south of Interstate 10 will be
the main concern today. 2 to 4 inches of rain can be expected
with locally higher amounts possible if training develops. Urban
flooding of poorly drained roadways may occur.

Organized severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Cool and dry weather is expected Sunday through Wednesday,
however rain may return late in the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, however flooding reports
are appreciated.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-281045-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
438 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of sea fog and isolated thunderstorms are expected today.
Reduced visibilities can be expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Cool and dry weather is expected Sunday through Wednesday,
however rain may return late in the week.

A moderate offshore flow is expected Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.