Damaging Wind in South Dakota, May 29, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1244 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1024 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Increased PoPs over the far eastern CWA where thundershowers have
developed and removed PoPs in areas where precipitation has moved
on. Otherwise no changes made to temperatures and winds at this
time.

UPDATE Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The upper level low pressure area center of circulation spinning
over southeast WY early this morning looks impressive with its cloud
shield. Unfortunately, as this system lifts out into our region
through tonight, the rainfall coverage with it does not look as
impressive. There will be a few vorts that rotate out in front of
this system into our region before the main system lifts in
tonight. The models and cam solutions show the best chances of
showers and storms moving in this afternoon and evening mainly
east of the James Valley where the best instability lies.
Therefore, have the best chances across this region. Otherwise,
expect to have quite a bit of mid and high level clouds spreading
over the region through tonight. Temperatures will range from the
mid 80s east to the upper 70s west of the Missouri River today. It
also looks like the winds will mix out to breezy from the south
today in advance of the upper low pressure system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The upper level low passes over the CWA on Wednesday. Spotty
thunderstorms will be possible, so maintained Superblend POPs
generally in the 20 to 40 percent range across the CWA. By the early
evening, much of this activity and associated cloud cover should
have moved off to the east along with the departing low pressure
system. Temperatures should be capped off at around 80 degrees,
however this is still 5 to 10 degrees above average for late May. An
upper level ridge develops over the region on Thursday, allowing
temperatures to rebound once again into the mid 80s for many. An
overall active pattern continues as a shortwave trough moves towards
and into the Dakotas Friday. Overall models agreement exists that
thunderstorms will be possible with this system Friday into
Saturday, as a good southerly moisture feed among other ingredients
may align. A more zonal flow pattern may encompass the rest of the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Diurnal cu will result in some lower, albeit VFR, ceilings this
afternoon and early evening. During the same time period, gusty
winds of up to around 25 kts will exist for all TAF sites. The
exception being KMBG where winds closer to the low will remain a
bit less breezy. Thunderstorms are possible tonight, primarily in
the KATY area. VFR conditions are expected throughout the period
except where thunderstorms are occurring.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Telken
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...Telken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
442 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-300945-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
442 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018 /342 AM MDT Tue May 29 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight
mainly east of the James Valley. Some strong storms are possible
across far northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms are again possible Wednesday and Friday
and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Mohr