Blizzard in South Dakota, December 31, 2018

Name: Blizzard in South Dakota, December 31, 2018
Start: 2018-12-31T06:05
End: 2018-12-31T17:00
Location: South Dakota

December 31, 2018 · NWS ABR · 10 events in 10 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 10

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS ABR wrote it up.

A warm front followed by an Alberta Clipper and Arctic front brought 1 to 6 inches of snow along with some freezing rain to northeast South Dakota from December 30th into the 31st. The freezing rain on the 30th was mainly from Redfield over to Watertown where a tenth to two tenths of an inch of ice occurred. This caused very slippery conditions. The strong north winds of 30 to 45 mph came in on the 31st in the morning bringing blizzard conditions to northeast South Dakota into the afternoon hours. Travel was significantly disrupted or halted by the ice and low visibility.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 2:12 AM CST, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 2:12 AM CST, 3 hours 53 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
212 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

Main concerns for today, of course, are snow/blowing snow/winds.
Pressure bubble is finally starting to make some headway south and
should continue to push main baroclinic zone south in the process.
However, accumulating snow looks to continue across the CWA through
at least the morning hours today before finally shifting off to the
south of the forecast area. The highest snow amounts look like
they'll occur over the Sisseton Hills/Coteau region, where around 6
or so inches total looks possible. The latest HREF/HRRR support this
idea.  Given limited coverage of 6 inch + amounts, will maintain
advisory and not upgrade. That said, still feel near blizzard
conditions are possible across the region yet this morning with
winds occasionally gusting to near 40 mph. Currently the greatest
pressure rises are forecast to slide through the western CWA and
this may be where winds end of the strongest through the morning
hours. Nonetheless will have to keep an eye on the wind and vsbys in
case an upgraded is needed due to worsening conditions.  Highs today
should not be much higher than the morning lows.

For tonight pcpn will end and there should be some clearing although
perhaps not completely clear. With arctic air in place, and
slackening winds, it should be cold, with some areas able to reach
20 below by morning. Wind chills will continue to be an issue so
that advisory will be allowed to continue.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

We open the period with surface high pressure overhead, moving
slowly east and parts of the western CWA already under southerly
return flow. We have a widespread snowpack, so temperature recovery
will be much delayed and blended guidance temperatures
Tuesday/Tuesday night are appropriate given 925mb temperatures
initially starting at -20C. This layers temperature does gradually
warm with westerly flow at 925mb, -10 to -8C by Tuesday night but
given the starting point (readings at the surface well below zero in
spots) readings will probably fall at least a handful of degrees
overnight. Favorable mixing conditions continue into Wednesday and
Thursday with westerly flow in the low levels, with 925mb
temperatures above freezing. I would anticipate some feedback from
our snow-pack, limiting temperature recovery despite favorable
mixing, and wouldn't be surprised if we have to deal with some
fog/low stratus given its a modified Pacific airmass moving into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018

The only terminal not reporting snow yet is KPIR, but that should
be changing within the next couple of hours, and KPIR should be
reporting snow, too. Sub-VFR cigs and visbies in falling and
blowing snow is expected over the next 12 to 18 hours, before VFR
gradually returns to the region. Strong northerly winds have
picked up at KABR/KMBG and will be spreading down to include the
KATY/KPIR terminals over the next few hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
     for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
     noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ003>011-015>023-034>037-
     051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-
     046.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for MNZ039-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Dorn

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 31, 4:20 AM CST, 1 hour 45 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
420 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-034>037-051-011030-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo-
420 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018 /320 AM MST Mon Dec 31 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow and blowing snow this morning, with near blizzard conditions
possible. Brutally cold wind chills expected later today and tonight.
Wind chills as cold as 25 below to 35 below are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ033-045-048-011030-
Stanley-Jones-Lyman-
420 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018 /320 AM MST Mon Dec 31 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow and blowing snow this morning, with near blizzard conditions
possible. Brutally cold wind chills expected later today and tonight.
Wind chills as cold as 25 below to 35 below are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 31, 12:10 AM CST, 5 hours 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1210 AM CST MON DEC 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     FREEZING RAIN    CASTLEWOOD              44.72N 97.03W
12/30/2018  E0.10 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MC

Local storm report, Dec 31, 12:11 AM CST, 5 hours 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1211 AM CST MON DEC 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FREEZING RAIN    SOUTH SHORE             45.10N 96.93W
12/30/2018  E0.10 INCH       CODINGTON          SD   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MC

Local storm report, Dec 31, 12:13 AM CST, 5 hours 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1213 AM CST MON DEC 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     FREEZING RAIN    2 ESE WATERTOWN         44.91N 97.13W
12/30/2018  E0.15 INCH       CODINGTON          SD   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MC

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

10 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.

Blizzard, Brown

When: December 31, 6:05 AM CST to 3:00 PM CST
Where: Brown forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 45.590, -98.352 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Spink

When: December 31, 6:12 AM CST to 3:00 PM CST
Where: Spink forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 44.938, -98.346 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Day

When: December 31, 6:33 AM CST to 4:00 PM CST
Where: Day forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 45.367, -97.607 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Clark

When: December 31, 6:33 AM CST to 4:00 PM CST
Where: Clark forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 44.858, -97.729 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Hamlin

When: December 31, 6:45 AM CST to 5:00 PM CST
Where: Hamlin forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 44.674, -97.188 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Marshall

When: December 31, 7:20 AM CST to 4:00 PM CST
Where: Marshall forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 45.759, -97.598 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Codington

When: December 31, 7:28 AM CST to 5:00 PM CST
Where: Codington forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 44.978, -97.189 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Roberts

When: December 31, 7:30 AM CST to 5:00 PM CST
Where: Roberts forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 45.630, -96.946 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Grant

When: December 31, 7:30 AM CST to 5:00 PM CST
Where: Grant forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 45.172, -96.768 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Deuel

When: December 31, 7:30 AM CST to 5:00 PM CST
Where: Deuel forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 44.760, -96.668 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Blizzard: Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in South Dakota in 2018 Every state in 2018 This day in weather history Warnings in South Dakota, December 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 798403, 798405, 798407, 798409, 798411, 798406, 798410, 798412, 798413, 798414.