A very moist southeast flow developed northeast of subtropical cyclone Alberto, which made landfall across the western Florida Peninsula on the 28th and moved north across Alabama throughout the 29th. Resultant upslope flow into the southern Appalachians resulted in development of widespread heavy rain showers across Upstate South Carolina throughout the 29th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
A very moist southeast flow developed northeast of subtropical cyclone Alberto, which made landfall across the western Florida Peninsula on the 28th and moved north across Alabama throughout the 29th. Resultant upslope flow into the southern Appalachians resulted in development of widespread heavy rain showers across Upstate South Carolina throughout the 29th. By the time the showers tapered off during the 30th, total rainfall of 2-4 inches occurred across the mountains and foothills. This resulted in minor flooding along the Middle Tyger River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 29, 6:59 PM EST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
759 PM EDT Tue May 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Deep tropical moisture will persist over the area through Wednesday
as the remnants of Alberto move northward from Alabama to Kentucky
and eventually to the Great Lakes. A moist airmass will persist into
Friday before southerly flow shifts more to the west. Slightly drier
air will mix in from the west over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT...Bands of heavy rain continue to slowly pivot
NEWD, oriented N-S. This is resulting in some training with intense,
tropical downpours that is causing flooding. No changes to the Flash
Flood Watch is needed at this time. Hopefully, with loss of daytime
heating, instability will decrease and rain rates will follow. The
latest HRRR shows gradual diminishing of precip across the eastern
half of the CWFA thru the evening, but then shows redevelopment of
scattered and hopefully, less intense, showers to the west that
spreads over the NC mountains thru the night. So categorical PoPs
will continue along the Blue Ridge overnight. The severe threat
looks to be lowering, due to decreasing instability and shear. So,
localized flooding and mountain landslides over the higher terrain
will continue to be the primary concern as periods of heavy rainfall
are expected to continue through the near term period. With the
already saturated ground, even marginal wind gusts could easily
bring down a few trees. High temperatures will remain near normal
and low temps will stay above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: By the start of the short term period
(Wednesday night), the remnant circulation of Alberto will be over
the midwest getting absorbed by a negatively-tilted shortwave trough
lifting out of the Northern Plains. Upper high in the western
Atlantic combined with the slowly merging Alberto/shortwave will
continue to keep a moist fetch from the Gulf across the Southeast
and toward the Southern Appalachians. The trough will slowly lift
through the period as the upper ridge works down over the Bahamas,
with the deep moisture lifting to the northeast as well. A lingering
shortwave embedded in the pattern will push up the OH/TN Valleys
Thursday night into Friday, bringing another push of precip to area.
At least at the start of the period, PW values remain anomalously
high with deep warm cloud processes. Keeping the Flash Flood Watch
in effect through 12z Thursday looks good for now, though the
additional round of convection Thursday afternoon across the
mountains might be enough to warrant another extension...confidence
just not high enough at this time with QPF in the 6-hr period from
18zThu-00zFri less than 1/2 inch (though with the antecedent
conditions, that might be all it takes). Problem is that instability
will increase, Thu afternoon, both the NAM and GFS are creeping
SBCAPEs upwards of 3000J/kg across the escarpment/foothills/adjacent
Piedmont which could seriously intensify convective rates.
That secondary wave of moisture gets caught up over the mountains
Thursday night into Friday morning and might have a slow start with
convective initiation initially across the Piedmont, but still
enough to increase afternoon Piedmont pops to high chance. Keep pops
going overnight across the mountains with likelies again by Friday
afternoon.
Should see a slow warming trend through the period, pushing 90 for a
high across the Piedmont by Friday afternoon and continued very
muggy (yuck)...heat indices might be pushing the mid-90s with the
dewpoints remaining quite high at around 70 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday: A southern tier ridge centered over Texas
will try to briefly ridge into our region Friday night into
Saturday but make little progress. A weak surface frontal boundary
settles southward through the area to provide a very modest airmass
change. However, a digging northern stream trough will approach the
southern and central Appalachians Sunday and then cross the
mountains on Monday. This feature will enhance convection at a time
when CAPE values will be low on Monday. However, looking at Sunday
PM the GFS has 2000 to 3000 CAPE over the western tip of NC and the
upper Savannah Valley at the time when the EC has the axis of trough
crossing our region. Minor vortices crossing our area on Sunday
afternoon could spark strong convection over NE GA and adjacent
areas. Highest POPs Sunday and Monday along with warmer temps than
what we have had recently. Above climo maxes on Saturday will dip
below climo by Monday, but with mild nighttime mins continuing.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An intense rain band with embedded tstms
oriented N-S across the GMU/GSP area continues to pivot
northeastward this evening. Widespread precip coverage ahead/east of
this line, but isolated to scattered to the west. There is still
enough instability for convection to linger into the evening, but
should gradually diminish in coverage overnight. Low cigs and some
fog is expected again overnight thru Wednesday morning, like the
last couple days. Little change in air mass for Wednesday aftn will
result in numerous showers and tstms again with peak heating, but
with slightly drier air starting to work in. CIGS should lift from
IFR to MVFR then scatter out somewhat to VFR by mid/late aftn. Winds
should favor a SE to S direction at all sites, but can be variable
at times around deeper convection.
Outlook: Expect continued rounds of scattered to widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms along with low cigs and briefly reduced
vsbys as tropical moisture lingers through at midweek. Drier air begins
to move into the area towards the end of the week, with some degree
of diurnal convection expected.
Confidence Table...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z
KCLT High 90% High 88% High 94% High 100%
KGSP High 88% High 87% High 81% High 83%
KAVL High 89% High 91% High 90% High 84%
KHKY High 91% High 99% High 85% High 86%
KGMU High 80% High 84% High 93% High 83%
KAND Med 67% High 87% High 96% High 88%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall over the past two weeks across much of the forecast
area, particularly the mountains, has set the stage for serious
flooding and landslide issues to possibly develop with any
additional tropical rainfall through mid-week. Numerical model
profiles exhibiting precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches,
and deep warm cloud layers in excess of 12 kft, will make for highly
efficient heavy rainfall processes and further increase the threat
of flash flooding and river flooding. The latest 3/6 hour FFG
guidance values are generally running 2.0 to 3.5 inches and these
will be quite achievable in the expected waves of tropical rain
showers - especially across the higher terrain. Hydro problems will
likely continue through tonight, and possibly through Wednesday
night across the mountains.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ010.
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for GAZ017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501>510.
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NCZ035>037-056-
057-068>072-082.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ001>003.
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for SCZ004>014-019.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/JPT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARK
HYDROLOGY...Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018 GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019- 300930- Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie- Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and piedmont of northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina, as well as the North Carolina piedmont. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. ..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. ..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office. GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-300930- Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- 523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina, as well as the North Carolina foothills. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across the far southwest mountains of North Carolina. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. ..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. ..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. ..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office. HG
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</html>PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0714 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNE TABLE ROCK 35.86N 81.79W
05/29/2018 BURKE NC SOCIAL MEDIA
UPPER CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS COVERING HWY 181 AND BROWN
MOUNTAIN BEACH ROAD
&&
TPALMERPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0731 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 W LAKE ADGER 35.33N 82.26W
05/29/2018 POLK NC PUBLIC
BRIGHTS CREEK HAS OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS AND IS COMPLETELY
COVERING MULITPLE BRIDGES. THIS HAS CUT OFF ACCESS TO THE
BRIGHTS CREEK COMMUNITY.
&&
LECPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0738 PM FLASH FLOOD LENOIR 35.91N 81.53W
05/29/2018 CALDWELL NC COUNTY OFFICIAL
ZACHS FORK CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS AND FLOODING YARDS.
&&
TPALMERPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0725 PM FLASH FLOOD OLD FORT 35.63N 82.18W
05/29/2018 MCDOWELL NC COUNTY OFFICIAL
FLOODING ON RIMPSEY LOOP ROAD NEAR TWIN LAKES.
EVACUATIONS ONGOING.
&&
TPALMERThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A stream gauge on the Middle Tyger River exceeded its established flood stage after 2 to 3 inches of rain fell in the basin throughout the 29th and into the early part of the 30th. Mount Lebanon Church Rd was covered with more than a foot of water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 760125.