What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 8, 1:35 PM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 8, 1:35 PM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level disturbances will move across the area this afternoon
and evening. A weak cold front will then approach from the northwest
tonight into Thursday and stall across the region through late week.
Seasonably warm temperatures and scattered to numerous afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. An
upper level disturbance will move across the area on Monday leading
to a drier day on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM...Fairly solid coverage of convection can be seen
across eastern KY/TN attm, and is starting to look quasi-organized
into multi-cell clusters. Meanwhile, scattered convection is
starting to develop across the high terrain of the CWFA ahead of the
main activity. All this to say that we should see likely to
categorical coverage in the mountains thru the aftn hours. Deep-
layer westerly steering flow should take activity into the Piedmont,
highest across the NC zones. Effective bulk shear is still less than
20 kts on the mesoanalysis page, but SBCAPE is 3000-3500+ J/kg. So
an uptick in severe threat look on tap. There will also be a non-
zero risk of excessive rainfall, with PWATs slightly above normal in
the 1.5-1.75" range.
Convection should largely exit east of the area this evening, but
lingering showers will be possible along the TN border thru much of
the night, thanks to NWLY upslope flow. A weak front will slip in
from the NW. It is more of a wind-shift line than a front, but will
will allow slightly drier air to work into the area. Lows tonight
will be slightly above normal.
Thursday, a northern stream upper trough axis will slide east of the
area, while a weak southern stream trough drifts across the Ozark
Plateau. A slight bit of upper ridge atop the CWFA coupled with
slightly lower sfc dewpts should result in less instability than
we've had the last couple days. The latest CAMs show mainly isolated
to scattered aftn convection, favoring the SW half of the CWFA.
Highs will generally be a couple degrees cooler than today across
the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday: Broad upper troughing will remain in place
across much of the East through the period. Weak frontal zone/
surface trough will provide a low level focus for diurnal showers
and storms, with perhaps slightly higher than typical coverage
anticipated both Fri and Sat afternoons, esp across roughly the
southern 2/3 of the area, as more stable air will try to work its
way into northern areas in the wake of the boundary. Temps will
generally be right around normal through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: A mid level trough will be a persistent
feature across the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday. A surface
boundary will meander across the area each day essentially being the
dividing line between deeper moisture to the east and somewhat drier
air to the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
both Sunday and Monday in all parts of the forecast area but as the
mid level trough shifts east on Tuesday, most shower activity should
be limited to west of the continental divide.
Mid level ridging will build into the region for next Wednesday
leading to more typical mid August Pops.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern for the 18z TAFs will be
timing of convection impacts. The latest guidance seems a bit too
slow on timing of convective initiation and so the latest TAFs keep
VCTS and TEMPOs a couple hours earlier than the consensus. This is
still the typical peak-heating time frame (18-24z). From there, a
light westerly flow should push everything off to the east this
evening, but with lingering mid clouds and some showers in the NC
mountains into the overnight. A weak front of sorts will push thru
by daybreak, shifting winds around out of the WNW/NW and allowing
slightly drier air into the region. This should result in a little
less storm coverage on Thursday. Fog will likely develop again
overnight in the mountain valleys, but maybe not as much in the
French Broad Valley due to a more persistent up-valley NW wind. The
other sites should be VFR, except in TSRA.
Outlook: Typical mid-summer conditions are fcst the next several
days. Diurnal, scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly in the
afternoons, with coverage increasing toward the weekend. Associated
morning restrictions will be possible each day, especially in
mountain valleys.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 94% High 95%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...ARKHazardous weather outlook, Aug 8, 3:39 AM EST, 11 hours 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-090845-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains and northern
foothills of western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Thunderstorms will develop across the mountains by early afternoon
and increase in coverage before racing east through early evening.
Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce cloud-
to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Isolated
flooding may develop in any locations impacted by multiple showers.
In addition, a few of the thunderstorms could become severe this
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-
SCZ001>014-019-090845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the piedmont
and southern foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from the west this
afternoon and then race eastward across the piedmont through the
evening hours. Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to
produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall. Isolated flooding may develop in any locations impacted by
multiple showers or thunderstorms. In addition, a few of the
thunderstorms could become severe this afternoon and evening, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.
In addition, Heat Index values should reach 95 to 100 degrees this
afternoon and evening.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and
evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be
cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated
flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.
Heat Index values of 95 to 100 will be likely once again on
Thursday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 8, 1:55 PM EST, 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
NCZ035-081930-
Alexander NC-
255 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALEXANDER COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...
At 255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Taylorsville, moving east at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Taylorsville, Vashti, Hiddenite, Ellendale and Millersville.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3603 8117 3603 8115 3602 8102 3582 8110
3594 8134 3599 8133 3601 8131 3601 8129
3603 8127 3603 8123 3604 8119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 290DEG 14KT 3598 8126
08Special weather statement, Aug 8, 2:00 PM EST, 42 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
NCZ064-065-509-510-SCZ002-003-081930-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
300 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 330
PM EDT...
At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles south of
Hendersonville to 12 miles north of Pickens, and expanding north and
east at about 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Columbus, Tryon, Pleasant Ridge State Park, Jones Gap State Park,
Table Rock State Park, Caesars Head State Park, Saluda, Tigerville,
Dupont State Forest and North Saluda Reservoir.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.
Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.
&&
LAT...LON 3527 8214 3508 8235 3501 8282 3519 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 256DEG 22KT 3514 8248 3506 8267
08
Special weather statement, Aug 8, 2:20 PM EST, 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
320 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
NCZ053-505>508-081945-
Buncombe NC-Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
320 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND EAST CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 345
PM EDT...
At 319 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Downtown Asheville, or near Black Mountain, moving east
at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Black Mountain, Old Fort, Swannanoa, Montreat, Shingle
Hollow, Sugar Hill, Glenwood, Pleasant Gardens and Fero.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.
&&
LAT...LON 3554 8239 3567 8237 3569 8197 3545 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 277DEG 25KT 3561 8230
08
Local storm report, Aug 8, 2:26 PM EST, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0228 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE WALHALLA 34.75N 83.04W
08/08/2018 OCONEE SC LAW ENFORCEMENT
SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT HIGHWAY 28 AND WEST UNION
RD
&&Special weather statement, Aug 8, 2:35 PM EST, 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
NCZ051-082015-
Swain NC-
335 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM EDT...
At 335 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from near Gatlinburg to 8
miles north of Robbinsville, and moving east at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Fontana Lake and Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Fontana Lake is in the path of these storms. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.
&&
LAT...LON 3547 8389 3556 8377 3557 8363 3558 8360
3556 8358 3556 8350 3561 8345 3562 8340
3566 8335 3567 8333 3566 8330 3569 8326
3569 8321 3541 8351 3542 8359 3543 8359
3543 8361 3544 8364 3543 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 261DEG 21KT 3577 8350 3544 8384
LANESpecial weather statement, Aug 8, 2:36 PM EST, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
SCZ006-007-010>012-082015-
Laurens SC-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
336 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...
GREENVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG...NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from Travelers Rest, to near
Greenville, to Piedmont, to central Anderson County. This line of
storms is moving east at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include... Greenville, Anderson,
Spartanburg, Greer, Mauldin, Taylors, Simpsonville and Five Forks.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3441 8226 3455 8271 3472 8252 3487 8246
3500 8247 3503 8234 3505 8196 3480 8194
3463 8201 3440 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 278DEG 26KT 3498 8237 3486 8237 3471 8243 3459
8256
08