An area of low pressure tracked across the eastern Great Lakes into upstate New York the afternoon and evening of the 2nd. A warm front that lifted north of Pennsylvania was followed by a cold front the evening of the 2nd.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
An area of low pressure tracked across the eastern Great Lakes into upstate New York the afternoon and evening of the 2nd. A warm front that lifted north of Pennsylvania was followed by a cold front the evening of the 2nd. A warm and humid air mass ahead of this cold front triggered a few severe thunderstorms that tracked across northeast Pennsylvania from late in the afternoon into the early evening. One thunderstorm spawned two small tornadoes in southern Lackawanna County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 2, 2:46 PM EST, 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
346 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move through tonight with showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure moving through the region will lead
to a dry day Wednesday before the next cold front with
additional showers on Thursday and Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight: Earlier showers and thunderstorms have developed a
boundary across northern PA which additional showers and
thunderstorms are forming along. These showers and storms are
moving west to east with heavy rainfall and are training. This
will result in the continued threat for flash flooding in the
watch area centered just south of the NY/PA line. Parameters
have become more favorable for severe weather across NE PA as
well with a localized increase in 0-1KM Helicity and modest
cape of around 1,000 J/KG at the surface and in the mid-levels.
Winds are fairly strong just off the surface so the potential
continues for some storms that develop to bring these gusty
winds to the surface. The localized helicity adds the potential
for spin as well and the threat of a tornado. A tornado and
flash flood watch continue into and through a good portion of
the evening as a result. Showers and thunderstorms will end late
this evening into the overnight with stratus clouds lingering
through the night. Some patchy fog will likely form toward
sunrise as well. Lows tonight will be in the 50 to around 60.
Wednesday and Wednesday night:
High pressure will build southeastward into the region leading
toward continuing clearing through the morning with more in the
way of sunshine in the afternoon. Temperatures will slowly rise
into the 60's for most of the area. The high pressure system
will start to head east Wednesday night with an increase in
clouds ahead of the next cold front. Temperatures may actually
rise a bit Wednesday night given the increase in warm air
advection ahead of the next front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front over the central Great Lakes will push through the
area on Thursday and generate a solid line of showers and
thunderstorms, into the overnight hours. By early friday, the
front will be far south and east of the area. A 1028mb Canadian
high pressure building in behind the front will bring clearing
skies and much drier air.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long wave trough develops over the western US as a ridge builds
over the east. Between the two is a frontal boundary that runs
from the central Plains to the northern Great Lakes. The ridge
holds fast through the long term as the boundary generally
stays to the north and west. The front tries to drift into the
northern and central zones early Sunday so there is the chance
of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the NY zones. Front is
forecast then to move back north later Sunday into Monday will
decrease chances of showers.
With the front nearly parallel to the upper flow, the exact
position of the front is difficult to forecast so the
confidence level is low for the period. In general though
temperatures should be above normal into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quite a variety in conditions will continue through the evening.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will lift and lower
ceilings from VFR all the way to low end IFR. This variation
makes pinpointing the exact timing of restrictions more
uncertain. Showers and thunderstorm timing was approximated with
tempo groups for later this afternoon.
Ceilings will lower with additional stratus and fog formation
overnight with the lowest restrictions around sunrise.
Visibilities will likely lower to MVFR or even IFR/LIFR at
KELM. The ceilings will gradually break up Wednesday morning.
Winds will be under 10 knots outside any thunderstorms outside
the TAF period.
Outlook...
Wednesday afternoon and night...VFR.
Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers/thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening.
Friday through Saturday morning...Mainly VFR.
Saturday afternoon through Sunday: Potential for restrictions
with some stratus.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ022-024-
055>057-062.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MWGHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1157 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018 NYZ022-024-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-031600- Steuben-Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- 1157 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday with strong wind gusts and heavy downpours possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-031600- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Schuyler- Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego- 1157 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected along a cold front today and a few may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. Wet soil conditions may allow for some minor flooding issues to develop, such as ponding of water on roadways and other low lying areas. Main stem river flooding is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday with strong wind gusts and heavy downpours possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
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</html>Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
326 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018
NYZ062-PAZ040-048-072-022030-
Sullivan NY-Southern Wayne PA-Northern Wayne PA-Pike PA-
326 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN SULLIVAN...CENTRAL
WAYNE AND NORTH CENTRAL PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Waymart, or near Honesdale, moving east at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Prompton around 330 PM EDT.
Bethany around 335 PM EDT.
Honesdale around 340 PM EDT.
Damascus and Cochecton around 400 PM EDT.
Lava around 405 PM EDT.
Fosterdale around 410 PM EDT.
Bethel and Eldred around 420 PM EDT.
Highland Lake and White Lake around 425 PM EDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4149 7476 4146 7475 4154 7546 4170 7546
4173 7471 4150 7471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 273DEG 24KT 4161 7537
JRKThe Binghamton radar (KBGM), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:02 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 2 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down trees and wires.
Thunderstorm winds blew down trees and wires.
Thunderstorm winds blew down trees and wires.
Thunderstorm winds knocked down wires and blew out a transformer.
A small tornado touched down briefly along Aston Mountain Road and quickly lifted. Maximum winds were estimated at 80 mph. This tornado downed and snapped numerous trees in a concentrated small path.
A small tornado descended and tore the roof off of a barn. Maximum winds were estimated at 70 mph. The tornado then took down several trees at a residence near Elias Road before lifting.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Pennsylvania, 2018Warnings in Pennsylvania, October 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 790304, 790305, 790306, 790307, 790301, 790303.