A strong cold front push into near record warmth and humidity in central Pennsylvania during the evening of January 12, 2018. This front produced some gusty rain showers, although little if any lightning was observed.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A strong cold front push into near record warmth and humidity in central Pennsylvania during the evening of January 12, 2018. This front produced some gusty rain showers, although little if any lightning was observed. Sporadic wind damage was observed in the central mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 12, 5:15 PM EST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 515 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A very sharp cold front will push gradually southeast across Central Pennsylvania today and tonight. A developing wave of low pressure on the front will track across southeast Pa late tonight. A deep upper level trough will swing through the region this weekend into the middle of next week, then lift out by the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Numerous near-short term forecast POP/weather/temp and precip type grids were heavily weighted twd the latest - 18Z RAP model which concurs nicely with the very sharp sfc cold front extending from near KBFD to just east of KFKL and KPIT at 1930Z. Extremely sharp temp drops of 25+ deg F (from the low 60s to the mid 30s) were occurring within just 2 hours of its passage. As an example...KAGC is currently 62F while KPIT is down to 34F. The front is expected to be just west of the I99/rt 15 corridor north of KIPT around 23Z today. Little change in timing or precip type and its transition to FZRA -> PL and Snow has been made following a multi model blend of high res data and Meso/SREF/GEFS guidance. Snowfall totals were modified only slightly and remain a general 1-2 inches below WPC amounts as it appears there could be a slightly more prolonged period of -fzra and sleet before a changeover to snow this evening across the NW mtns, and tonight elsewhere. Prev Disc for late today through tonight... It's our understanding that roads crews will not be focused on, since the significant (and in some parts of Western PA - Heavy) rain overnight/this morning, and around an additional 0.50 inch of QPF before the changeover, would be washed off and ineffective in this particular high impact winter weather event. The sharp drop in temp after the cold fropa and continued precip in the form of signif sleet and/or fzra rain across the central valleys, and sleet to several inches or more of snow across the NW mtns late today and tonight, will lead to a CLASSIC FLASH FREEZE case with very hazardous travel conditions developing quickly. Showery/mild weather will remain across much of the Susq Valley for the rest of the day. Deep southerly flow ahead of approaching cold front will continue to flood the region with unseasonably mild air late this afternoon/early this evening, with temps from the upper 50s near the Allegheny front to the mid 60s over the southeast portion of the forecast area. Latest models continue to indicate a ptype changeover to mixed precip across northwest Pa this evening, as low level cold air undercuts deep/moist southerly flow in advance of shortwave lifting up the Appalachians. As surface low tracks across southeast Pa late tonight, confidence is high for a few to several hour period of heavy snow across northwest Pa in association with fgen forcing within thermally direct jet entrance region of a 150+ kt upper jet situated across srn Ontario and Lake Erie. Model Blend and WPC Guidance continues to support a high confidence of 6-9 inches across Warren/Mckean counties, with a few hours of 1 inch/hour rates likely around midnight. The heavy snow will be preceded by a transition from rain to wintry mix which will shift to the southeast with time. The shallow cold air will initially undercut the warm/moist air with a significant icing zone possible over parts of Central PA before changing to snow as cold air deepens through the column. Based on model soundings and WPC guidance, believe fzra will be fairly short-lived with sleet a more predominant ptype before eventual change to snow early Sat morning. A very messy start to the weekend for sure, with a glaze of ice and coating of snow/sleet possible as far southeast as the Lower Susq Valley. Mins temps by morning will likely vary from the single digits across the NW mtns (with wind chills in the single digits below zero) to near 30F in the far SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Expect any lingering light snow/flurries to taper off by late Saturday morning, as upper level shortwave and associated surface low lifts rapidly northeast of PA. An additional coating to 1.5 inches of snow is all that should occur between 12-15Z Saturday, and that will be almost exclusively confined across the mtns North and NE of KIPT. Much colder air will continue to pour into the state on a gusty north-northwest flow in the wake of this system Saturday. SREF plumes indicate very little rise from early AM temps and highs only in the teens over the NW Mtns to low 30s across the southeast counties. Dry, arctic air and low inversion heights should limit lake effect activity to mainly just flurries across the western mountains Saturday afternoon and night. Main concern will be low wchills Sat night. Current indications are for apparent temps close to advisory levels over the northern mountains Sat night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Saturday night and Sunday will be cold and windy post-storm as strong high pressure builds in from the GLAKS. Monday will start quiet but a clipper spreads light snow into the area Monday night and Tuesday followed by cold and dry conditions into Thursday. Monday night's clipper could be accompanied by squalls. Pattern may amplify again by next weekend with milder flow ahead of vigorous shortwave and storm ejecting from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest Sat-Sun with strong FROPA possible over PA on Monday. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Periods of rain along with MVFR to IFR restrictions and gusty south winds are continuing to move into the region with the heaviest bands through the western half of PA. The latest radar is showing some mixed precipitation through at PIT and BFD is a little above freezing. So there will be a changeover to a wintry mix over the next few hours. Precipitation will mix to snow from northwest to southeast this evening. Latest models have the 02Z in the NW to 12Z through the SE. Winds will shift abruptly from south/southeast to northwest with the passage of a strong cold front. LLWS everywhere prior to the cfropa. Low ceilings and reduced visibilities expected to persist overnight and into Saturday as well as gusty N-NW winds, with improving weather for late Saturday. Outlook... Sat...AM rain/low cigs poss east. AM snow/ice poss central/west. Sun...No sig wx expected. Mon...PM light snow poss west. PM low cigs poss east. Tue...Morning snow ending. Becoming VFR south and east, lingering snow showers and restrictions over the mountains. && .HYDROLOGY... A mild surge in temperatures combined with 1-3 inches of rain from Thursday afternoon through late Friday will produce significant rises on rivers and streams with the potential for ice jams and low- lying flooding. Streamflows are currently low, but many waterways are choked with ice. The greatest risk of flooding is in the Watch area over north- central PA where snowmelt will be a contributing factor today. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday evening for PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ012- 017>019-024>027-033-037-041-042-045-046-049>053. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ028-034>036-056>059-063>066. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ006-010- 011. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ004-005. && SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert LONG TERM...Ross/DeVoir/RXR AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru HYDROLOGY...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1232 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 PAZ012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-131745- Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- 1232 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ028-034>036-056>059-063>066-131745- Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1232 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ024>027-033-131745- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Somerset- 1232 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004-005-131745- Warren-McKean- 1232 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ006-010-011-131745- Potter-Elk-Cameron- 1232 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
534 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018
PAZ024>026-033-034-122300-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
534 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018
...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...
At 532 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated showers along a line
extending from Horseshoe Curve to Ogletown to near Berlin. Movement
was northeast at 35 mph.
Very heavy rainfall and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hollidaysburg, Altoona, Tyrone, Bedford, Osterburg, Bellwood,
Everett, Buffalo Mills, Spruce Creek, Roaring Spring, Clearville,
Tipton, Ogletown, Sinking Valley and Canoe Creek State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.
&&
LAT...LON 3972 7892 4022 7877 4073 7841 4074 7812
4070 7797 4044 7813 3972 7843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 236DEG 32KT 4048 7847 4023 7869 3985 7881
DangeloThe State College radar (KCCX), 6 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:31 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down power lines across a road near Beaver Mills in Rush Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a tree across Old Route 22 in western Blair County.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a tree across the intersection of Toll House Road and Narrows Road near Millheim.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, January 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 727810, 727814, 727818.