An incoming front brought high winds to a few locations along the southern Oregon coast.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to a few locations along the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 22, 11:44 PM PST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1244 AM PDT Fri Mar 23 2018
.UPDATE...
A chance of thunderstorms with small hail has been added to the
forecast for tonight along and near the coast, spreading inland
to Josephine County and Douglas County east to the Roseburg area
toward morning. A slight chance of thunderstorms with small hail
has also been added for all areas from the Cascades westward,
except south of Weed and Mount Shasta.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Both lightning detection and a spotter in Brookings have reported
cloud to ground lightning along and near the Curry and Coos County
coasts in the last 3-4 hours. A developing baroclinic leaf cloud
signature is evident on IR satellite imagery. This is indicative
of healthy diffluence aloft, and guidance illustrates that there
is strong cold air advection and vorticity aloft with this
feature. Overnight through Friday the area favorable for convection
expands inland. Mainly the threat from the thunderstorms will be
cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and a quick drop in snow
levels. This should make for a dynamic Friday, with thunderstorm
concerns along and near the coast shifting inland with time.
Those traveling are encouraged to check road conditions before
leaving and to be prepared for winter driving conditions if going
above 1,500 to 2,000 foot elevations. The greatest impacts are
likely to be during the hours of darkness. Friday evening a
strong cold front will push across the West Side leading to the
potential for accumulating snowfall reaching valley floors for
nearly all areas west of the Cascades along and near the I-5
corridor. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions prevail for most of
the area. The exception is along the coast where a band of showers
with embedded thunderstorms is moving onshore, temporarily lowering
cigs to IFR in heavier showers. Near term models show the leading
edge of the next front moving onshore around 10z, continuing to push
inland into Friday morning and lowering cigs to MVFR as it does so.
Freezing levels will be down to around 1500-2000 ft MSL overnight
into Friday morning. So any precipitation is expected to be snow
above that elevation. Snow is expected down to valley floors in the
Illinois and Shasta Valleys and east of the Cascades, but amounts
are expected to be light through Friday morning.
Inland and west of the Cascades, gusty winds have diminished but
winds aloft are expected to remain strong overnight. This will lead
to LLWS concerns for inland TAF sites as well as mountain wave
turbulence. Along the coast and east of the Cascades gusty winds
will continue overnight. /BR-y
&&
.MARINE...Updated 815 PM PDT Thursday 22 Mar 2018....Another cold
front will move through the waters tonight, bringing another round
of increased winds. Winds will be stronger with this front than the
previous, reaching high end small craft conditions. Winds will
diminish Friday afternoon. Widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue through tonight and into Friday. Winds
could be quite gusty in and around any of these thunderstorms,
gusting up to 40 mph. Small hail will be possible as well.
A surface low moves southeast near the outer waters Saturday,
bringing another front through the waters. Winds look similar to the
front expected tonight, peaking at high end small craft conditions.
Seas will peak late tonight into Friday morning around 13 to 15
feet, subsiding briefly Friday afternoon. Seas will build again
Saturday as another heavy west swell moves into the waters.
There's good agreement conditions will improve Sunday and last into
Tuesday. An upper ridge will build over the waters and a thermal
trough will set up along the Oregon/California border. North winds
will be increasing Tuesday afternoon, possibly reaching small craft
by Tuesday night. /BR-y
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 913 PM PDT Thu Mar 22 2018/
DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a short wave trough rotating
around the base of the low offshore with jetstream enhancement.
This feature is our main concern as forecast movement brings it to
the Kalmiopsis area around midnight tonight. To the north there is
plenty of cold air cumulus offshore that are about to move inland.
Deep moisture and orographic enhancement will help to initiate
moderate to heavy precipitation there. Most models bring snow
levels down to around 1500 to 2000 feet overnight but the HRRR
short term model brings the snow levels down further to 1200 feet
in the Illinois Valley. This seems reasonable given the burst of
downward momentum from the showers. Road snow is certain for the
coastal Mountains in Southwest Oregon. Road snow could also
impact portions of Highway 199 including Hays Hill Summit, Sexton
Summit and highway 42 at Camas Mountain. For Jackson County the
hills around Jacksonville could see snow accumulation from late
tonight into early Friday morning with around half an inch of snow
overnight. Snow flurries possible in Medford but accumulation is
not expected. Snow levels are expected to come up briefly Friday.
This in combination with a stronger March sun should allow road
temperatures to warm up enough to limit or result in wet roads
between 1500 and 2000 feet. See PDXWSWMFR for details of the
winter weather advisory and warning. /FB
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 PM PDT Thu Mar 22 2018/
DISCUSSION...The cold front is now east of the Cascades and cold
air aloft is beginning to move over the forecast area. This is
evidenced by the popcorn configuration of clouds over the eastern
Pacific. We should catch a relative break in the action the rest of
the afternoon into early this evening.
The main concern will be later tonight into at least Friday morning.
Another cold front will move into our area tonight. This front will
be energized by a strong upper jet and deep moisture and orographic
enhancement will likely result in moderate to heavy precipitation
initially along the coast, then spreading into the inland westside
locations and Siskiyou County during the day Friday. Cold air aloft
will already be in place and snow levels are expected to lower to
around 1500 feet tonight, but could briefly lower in areas that get
moderate to heavy precipitation. Road snow is certain for the coastal
Mountains in Southwest Oregon. Road snow could also impact portions
of Highway 199 including Hays Hill Summit, Sexton Summit and highway
42 at Camas Mountain. Snow levels are expected to come up briefly
Friday. This in combination with a stronger March sun should allow
road temperatures to warm up enough to limit or result in wet roads
between 1500 and 2000 feet.
The front and core of heavier precipitation will gradually shift
inland during the day Friday and road snow concerns will shift to
include the the higher passes along the Cascades and Siskiyous. The
coastal mountains in southwest Oregon will continue to get hammered.
The Siskiyous further east and the Cascades are likely to see
significant snow as well, but there is more uncertainty regarding
amounts. Some guidance hits them with a lot of precipitation as
well, but often on the events from the southwest, moisture gets
wrung out by the coastal ranges which limits amounts. One area of
particular concern is Mt. Ashland. This is a good setup not only for
heavy snow at Mt. Ashland, but also for strong winds. With a 130 KT
jet aloft, and model soundings showing winds of 40 knots descending
to very near the top of the mountain by Friday afternoon, we could
see blizzard conditions at times at the ski area.
Confidence is increasing for significant snow around the Mount
Shasta Area. A strong westerly jet remains, but it still looks like
we'll get decent upslope flow in the lower levels and the models
continue to show a lot of precipitation and good thermodynamics.
This is also a favorable set up for northern Klamath with strong
south, upslope flow and an airmass that will certainly be cold
enough. The only question there is how much moisture is able to get
over the Cascades. The models show the heaviest precipitation in
these areas Late Friday afternoon and night, so the opportunity is
there for snow covered roads and hazardous driving conditions for
portions of Highway 97 north from Chemult to Crescent, Interstate 5
just south of Weed to Dunsmuir and Highway 89.
Given the above mentioned. Winter storm warning and advisories will
be in effect. For details please see WSWMFR for more details.
The main message is driving will be difficult if not hazardous later
tonight through Friday night. Conditions may improve some during the
day, but it's not a guarantee. Therefore the best advice is to stay
tuned for the latest forecast updates. For the latest road
conditions call 511 in Oregon. In California call 511 or 1-800-427-
7623. You can also check with TripCheck for the latest road
conditions. -Petrucelli
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The upper trough
will gradually shift east Sunday into Sunday night but models
continue to show a chance for showers with a weak disturbance moving
into the region and moist northwest flow. Also expect continued cool
temperatures across the area on Sunday. Model solutions support a
transition to a drier pattern early next week with an upper level
ridge building offshore and nudging into the region. For Monday and
Tuesday the ECMWF does indicate disturbances moving over the ridge
and into northern and central Oregon though. So depending on how
strong the ridge is on Monday and Tuesday, may continue to see a
chance for precipitation, mainly from the Cascades west in southern
Oregon. Temperatures will be cool Sunday into Monday and expect
a potential for low temperatures in the lower 30s in valleys west of
the Southern Oregon Cascades. Then Tuesday into Wednesday, expect
a warming trend with models showing temperatures rising to seasonal
norms by Tuesday then above normal on Wednesday. The dry and warm
conditions then are expected to continue into Thursday with models
showing the upper level ridge building further inland and the storm
track shifting north. -CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM
PDT this evening for ORZ029-030.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ024.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ024.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ023.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM
PDT this evening for ORZ027-028.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT
this evening for ORZ027-028.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ026.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT
this evening above 2500 feet in the for ORZ025.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ026.
CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
for CAZ085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM
PDT this evening for CAZ082-083.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT
this evening for CAZ082-083.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 11 AM this morning
to 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
BTL/FJB/MNFThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The NOS/NWLON at Port Orford reported a gust to 62 mph at 23/0024 PST.
The ODOT sensor at Humbug Mountain reported a gust to 66 mph at 23/0117 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, March 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 736183, 736184.