Wildfire in Oklahoma, March 6 to 9, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Frequent gusts over 35-40 kts from the west and northwest
expected through the afternoon especially for the northeast
OK/northwest AR TAF sites. Winds will diminish some this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1119 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Current observations and forecast 925mb winds support
expansion of wind advisory to include west central AR
and parts of east central OK. Elsewhere...already seeing
gusts pushing 50 mph near the KS border with frequent
gusts over 40 mph across northeast OK into norhwest AR.

Updated forecast will be out shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  27  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   63  32  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   64  30  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  26  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  28  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  28  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   62  29  51  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   55  27  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
F10   62  29  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   66  33  54  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
418 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
418 AM CST Tue Mar 6 2018

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Around Noon.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
    RISK...Critical.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Early afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma, NW of I-44.

DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected today as warm and
dry conditions combine with northwest winds gusting at 40 to 50
miles an hour. Minimum afternoon relative humidities are expected
to fall into the 15 to 25 percent range with potentially lower
values in areas northwest of I-44. Burning is not recommended
today. Any fires that develop will likely spread quickly out of
control. Please refer to the latest red flag warning for additional
details.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Friday
night into Saturday as another low pressure system moves into the
region. Depending on the surface low track, some of these storms
could be strong to severe.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.