Wildfire in Oklahoma, March 14, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service TULSA OK
1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy conditions expected out west today. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service TULSA OK/

UPDATE...

There are just a few high clouds across the OK/TX panhandles, with
clear skies elsewhere. High temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s
look reasonable with current mid morning temps in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Winds will not be too bad today, with surface high
pressure sliding off to the south and east. Pressure gradient will
increase on Thursday, with widespread gusts in the 30-35 mph
range.

Updated forecast for hourly trends. Red Flag Warning goes into
effect for portions of northwest Oklahoma at noon.

DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
No significant aviation issues this morning. Only mid-high clouds
expected today, mainly across western airports. Light and variable
winds will increase from the south this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
We know we sound like a broken record, but fire weather concerns
continue to be the main issue in the forecast over the next few
days. With the warmer temperatures today and low-level moisture of
significance off the Texas coast (with current offshore flow), we
will also see low humidity this afternoon, especially west. Have
initialized the dewpoints closer toward the lower ECMWF over the
next few days which tends to do better in these environments than
the model blends.

The wind will be right near 20-25 mph this afternoon across west
central and northwest Oklahoma with ERC-G (Energy Release
Component for fuel model G) values at or above 85th percentile
across western Oklahoma indicating fuels are quite dry, which
makes sense with the lack of rainfall in the area. So will upgrade
the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for today. Moisture
does begin returning for tomorrow, so the expected humidity
near/below 20 percent will be confined to far west and
northwestern portions of the area. Again expect near-critical fire
weather conditions again tomorrow where the dewpoints are low west,
but with the relatively small geography and higher potential
today, will not put a headline out for tomorrow yet.

Friday will be a tricky day. Pacific front moves through bringing
much drier air into the area while keeping temperatures warm. The
wildcard now looks to be the wind. This morning's models are
relatively consistent in taking the surface low across Nebraska or
northern Kansas, which keeps the tightest gradient and strongest
winds to the north of the area. The current forecast winds are
not as strong as the previous forecast which keeps the RFTI (Red
Flag Threat Index) in the near-critical to critical range. But we
will be watching the model trends closely with the forecast track
of the surface low and the associated wind field. If winds trend
stronger again, it could become a critical to extreme day.

As far as precipitation chances, it still looks pretty bleak. One
upper wave pivots through the Plains tomorrow night/Friday morning
which gives some low precipitation chances in the east ahead of
the Pacific front. But the chances look better east of our
forecast area, which has been a recurring theme this winter. The
GFS suggests there is another chance on Saturday with moisture
return and isentropic lift, but the ECMWF is much less aggressive
with precipitation development. Chances continue Sunday/Sunday
night as a large upper storm system moves through the central
Plains, but again it looks like we may be contending with the dry
slot portion of the system keeping the best precipitation chances
farther north and east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  76  54  78 /   0   0  10   0
Hobart OK         44  79  49  79 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  44  79  54  81 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           45  82  49  75 /   0  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     42  77  53  75 /   0   0  20   0
Durant OK         43  74  58  81 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>016-021-022.

TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service TULSA OK
1217 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151730-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1217 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

.Fire Weather...
Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across parts of western and northwestern Oklahoma. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect for this area through 8 PM tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will develop
each afternoon from Thursday through Tuesday across portions of
western and central Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern half
of Oklahoma Thursday night. There is also a chance of
thunderstorms across parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas
Saturday through Sunday night. The chance of severe storms
remains low.

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