Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, June 19, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle:

Thunderstorm currently moving toward KGUY that may include strong
winds and hail. Included tempo group to capture expected timing
for this activity. Convection not expected to reach KDHT or KAMA,
but will have to watch for possible initiation along outflow
boundaries later in the evening. VFR cigs generally expected
through the period, however a brief period of MVFR/IFR cigs is
possible later tonight along and just behind a front moving
through. Some shower activity also can't be ruled out. The front
is expected to move through KGUY/KDHT between 06z and 09z and
reach KAMA between 08z and 11z. There is some possibility that the
front may stall prior to reaching KAMA, but confidence is much
higher that it will push through resulting in north to northeast
winds at 15 to 20 knots. Outflow from storms near KGUY may result
in a wind shift earlier.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Rich moisture remains in place over the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.  Surface dewpoints in the 60s most areas, with 70
noted in far eastern Texas Panhandle.  Dryline is near a line
from Kenton to Tucumcari, with dewpoints below 50 along and west
of dryline.

Visible satellite data reveal enhanced moisture flux convergence
over western half of forecast area along distinct north-to-south
convergence zones in the form of enhanced cumulus development.
Have opted to include isolated evening thunderstorms in this area,
where cap is close to being breached downstream of weak shortwave
trof.

More substantial pops remain across Oklahoma Panhandle, where
stronger shortwave trof is poised to cross.  Frontal boundary
running northeast from surface low near Trinidad is expected to
advance slowly southward this evening, reaching northwest corner
of forecast area around 1 AM CDT.  Thunderstorms expected to be
most numerous near this front, and are expected to spread south
through much of the Texas Panhandle by 7 AM, covering much of the
area north of Interstate 40.

On Wednesday, additional thunderstorms should be confined to
eastern zones, along and ahead of cold front.  Front expected to
clear all of forecast area around 3 PM.  Wednesday night and
Thursday should be mostly uneventful as more stable post-frontal
air settles in.

On Thursday night, disturbances in northwest flow aloft help
lapse rates to steepen, while providing support for thunderstorm
development as modest low-level flow leads to increasing moisture
and instability.  Have increased pops over western half Thursday
night.

For Friday and beyond, northwest or near-zonal flow expected to
prevail, with ensembles depicting wide range regarding timing of
disturbances.  Have generally followed pop pattern suggested by
Blend, while limiting pops to mostly 20 and 30 percent.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

7/2

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
348 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-201100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
348 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. Some
thunderstorms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and
heavy rainfall being the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Saturday. Some
thunderstorms may be strong with winds up to 50 MPH and
heavy rainfall being the main hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Cockrell