During the early morning hours of July 4th, surface low pressure had set up over north central South Dakota, with an east-to-west warm front extending eastward from the low along the North Dakota/South Dakota border into west central Minnesota. Temperatures across eastern North Dakota and the northwest quarter of Minnesota ranged in the 70s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
During the early morning hours of July 4th, surface low pressure had set up over north central South Dakota, with an east-to-west warm front extending eastward from the low along the North Dakota/South Dakota border into west central Minnesota. Temperatures across eastern North Dakota and the northwest quarter of Minnesota ranged in the 70s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. The mid level winds (500mb) were from the south-southwest. A bowing line of thunderstorms, stretching from south of Rugby to the North Dakota/South Dakota border moved into portions of the southwest Devils Lake region just after 130 am CDT. Following the mid level wind flow, the storms tracked to the east-northeast, reaching the Red River Valley around 4 am CDT. At this point, the bowing line of storms stretched from southern Manitoba down into northeast South Dakota. This bowing line of storms tracked through the northwest quarter of Minnesota in the 4 to 6 am CDT time frame, so these storms were moving quite quickly. Most of the storms had exited the Baudette to Park Rapids corridor by 7 am CDT. These storms produced widespread damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 10:52 PM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1152 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 Line of severe storms moving east around 30mph currently west of Bismarck is expected to reach the western edges of the FA in the 3 to 5am time frame. Torrential rain with potential 60mph winds will be the primary concern across SE ND as day breaks. UPDATE Issued at 938 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 Still in the monitoring phase as convection continues to expand to the west with the upper level trough and associated high plains storms. To the south some slow moving heavy rainers just sitting over parts of NE SD. Most likely scenario to pan out appears to be a complex develops across ND as the western activity interacts with PWats 1.5 to near 2 inches and MLCAPE 2 to 3k. Potential for severe winds and heavy rain will be the primary concern with this system over night. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 MLCIN appears to be keeping convection at bay across SE ND this evening as strong convection has begun well south of the FA southwest of Aberdeen SD. CAMs do show some stronger activity lifting into the extreme southern FA between 10pm and midnight. More widespread MCS appears likely to form in the high plains and race east through the overnight. Will continue to monitor radar trends and hires model solns through the evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 South winds helping the low level moisture return northward with dew pts in the mid 60s to lower 70s...even a few AWOS sites in E ND in the mid 70s. CU developed with some higher level cloud cover above. SPC meso analysis field indicates still enough CIN to prevent much growth in any CU fields and thus lack of any precipitation. Some agitated CU with some mid level showers earlier this aftn in NE SD to the Morris MN area but that has since weakened. 850 mb moisture convergence is targeting far NE SD thru the evening but no boundary evident in this area and 850 mb winds this evening are not that great either. Thus highly uncertain if any storms will form in the MN/ND/MN border region this evening. Main upper wave moving out of Wyoming with better upper level lift will spread into central ND toward midnight and move ENE thereafter. Better 850 mb jet with this feature and this may well be the main player tonight. For time being kept highest pops per CAM guidances in SE ND thru the night...but that can be tweaked as needed. Wave will move thru Wed AM with drier west winds behind it spreading into E ND by midday and into the eastern fcst area by evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 Calmer weather is expected for the second half of the week as lingering showers and thunderstorms exit the region Wednesday evening across southwest to north central Minnesota. Surface high pressure building in behind the frontal passage on Wednesday will linger over the area Thursday through the early weekend. This will be accompanied by height rises aloft associated with an upper level ridge building over the central CONUS. Heading into Saturday and Sunday, the surface high begins to shift eastward in response to surface pressure rises associated with the building ridge. As this occurs southerly warm air advection will allow temperatures to climb to the upper 80s and perhaps low 90s for central and eastern North Dakota with mid to upper 80s for northwest Minnesota. Most deterministic guidance suggests an upper level shortwave and attendant mid level jet max propagating up and around the northwest side of the upper level ridge that will help enhance surface pressure falls along the leeward side of the Rockies across Canada and into MT/WY. Thunderstorms will be possible as this trough/cold front pushes east Saturday evening and into Sunday morning. Given the moderate instability and 30-50 knot bulk shear values forecast, organized convection is possible with a linear storm mode most the most likely scenario at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 Line of thunderstorms expected to move across the FAR and Possible DVL and GFK TAF sites before 12Z. West to turn to the west tomorrow afternoon with gusts to near 25kts at DVL and GFK. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...JK SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...JK
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 611 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 MNZ001-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026-027-054-041115- West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall- East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk- North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard- West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena- Grant-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County- Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Western Walsh County- 611 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Severe thunderstorms will be possible for this morning. Expect wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to one inch in diameter. Also locally heavy rain will be possible. Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight. Storms are expected to develop over the central Dakotas and move to the east. One can expect hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph. Locally heavy rain will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Severe storms will be possible for Wednesday morning over the southeast zones or roughly southeast of a line from Baudette, MN to Wahpeton ND. Expect hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gust to 70 mph will be possible. Also locally heavy rain will be possible. Elsewhere no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required. MNZ002-003-029-NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053-041115- Norman-Clay-Wilkin-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom- Sargent-Richland- 611 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Severe thunderstorms will be possible for this morning for southeast Northeast Dakota and neighboring parts of west central Minnesota. Expect wind gusts to 70 mph and hail up to one inch in diameter through 9 AM CDT. Also locally heavy rain will be possible. Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight. Storms are expected to develop over the central Dakotas and move to the east. One can expect hail up to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph. Locally heavy rain will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required. JH
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 128 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:07 UTC.
25 thunderstorm wind, 3 tornado, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A half mile or more of power poles were snapped off on a 69,000 volt transmission line.
A tornado likely initiated in a bowing section of a squall line over central Eddy Township, in Eddy County. The tornado tracked for about three miles to the north-northeast, ending around one mile northeast of Warwick in Benson County. Roughly half the track was in Eddy County and half in Benson County. roofing material was blown off of homes and farm buildings. Several power poles were snapped. Peak winds were estimated at 115 mph.
This tornado began in Eddy County at 0129 am CST, with about half its total path length occurring in Eddy County. The total path length was about three miles. The tornado likely initiated in a bowing section of a squall line and passed just east of Warwick. Multiple power poles were snapped on both north and south sides of highway 20. Large trees were snapped in and around Warwick. Metal sheathing was torn off a grain cleaning structure. Peak winds were estimated at 115 mph.
Downburst winds hit homesteads across eastern Coulee and western Dry Lake townships. At one homestead, winds up to 80 mph blew in the overhead door of a south facing garage. In addition, the east and north walls were blown out and the roof was peeled back to the north-northeast. A small wooden granary was slid back on its foundation. Quite a bit of tree damage also occurred in the area.
Quite a bit of tree damage was reported around the Stump Lake Park and campground.
Four to six inch diameter tree branches were blown down around town.
Tree damage was reported around the Lake Ashtabula campground.
A shed was tumbled, fencing and roofing were torn up, and a building was demolished at the Devils Lake Speedway.
Large branches and trees were blown down in a shelterbelt along highway 2.
Trees were blown down and a trailer home was damaged.
An old barn was peeled open and sections of its walls and roof were flung to the north. Timbers from the barn penetrated into a home located 80 yards to the north. A Davis wind sensor located just west of the main tornado path registered a 68 mph south wind followed by a rapid shift to a 66 mph west wind. One older power pole located a half mile north-northeast of the farmstead was also cracked. Peak winds were estimated at 105 mph.
The wind gust was measured by an NDAWN mesonet station.
At least three trees were uprooted with other tree damage noted. A brick housing sign was also knocked over.
A tree was uprooted along Interstate 29, near mile marker 149.
The wind gust was measured by a personal weather station.
Several large trees were blown down, a fireworks tent was blown down, and a boat/trailer combination was blown over.
Multiple trees were snapped or uprooted in town. One north to south oriented building near highway 17 had its sheet metal roofing peeled back toward the east.
A tree was snapped in half.
Two power poles were blown down along highway 17.
A tree was blown down.
Several pine trees were snapped along the bike path.
Tree and roof damage was reported throughout town.
Trees were uprooted and power outages were reported.
Several trees were snapped along highway 13.
Tree damage was reported.
Large trees were blown down and the grandstand roof was blown off the ball field.
A tree was blown down.
Trees were blown down and a chair was blown through the railing of a deck.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for North Dakota, 2018Warnings in North Dakota, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 758897, 758938, 758939, 758911, 758913, 758916, 758918, 758923, 758940, 758941, 758942, 758943, 758944, 758945, 758946, 758951, 758952, 758953, 758954, 758955, 758956, 758957, 758958, 758959, 758960, 758961, 758962, 758963, 758964.