Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, August 26, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
247 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Watching ongoing convection, so will keep the discussion brief.
Seeing intensifying activity over far southeast ND right now, with
satellite imagery correlating the growing clouds. SPC put out a
mesoscale discussion a short while ago, talking about a potential
watch for the southern third of our FA. This growing convection
may push this watch into a quick reality. Latest HRRR runs have
been showing other activity firing over the Red River Valley by 8
to 9 pm, and lasting until just past midnight. They no longer show
any activity pushing in from western ND. So will see how things
play out tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Rain chances return Monday night into early Tuesday across the area
as a shortwave trough moves into the region and a low pressure
system skirts by to the south through the Central Plains. With
little instability present on the cool side of this system, suspect
this will be mainly shower activity with perhaps some embedded
thunder.

For Tuesday through Thursday, expect quiet and dry weather.
Temperatures will be notably cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as the
upper trough axis swings through the Plains and dry northwest flow
aloft develops. A warming trend develops from Wednesday to Friday in
warm air advection ahead of a system moving through the Canadian
Plains.

After a breezy day Thursday amidst pressure gradient winds, chances
for showers and thunderstorms develop Thursday night through Friday
night as a shortwave trough aloft and surface front pass through the
Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Difficult set of TAFs to write, as confidence in how any storms
develop tonight is low. Many of the latest high resolution model
runs show development around 9 pm, with the activity moving east-
northeast. Therefore, the window for any storms may be more in the
9 pm to 2 am time frame. However, trying to be exact with where
and when with a low confidence forecast does not work very well.
So have stuck in the best guess at this point. Any storms will
bring the potential for lower vsbys and ceilings. Did not have
much time to look at the last 12 hours of the TAFs.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-271200-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
657 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The risk of severe thunderstorms increases this evening into the
overnight hours, mainly in the 7 pm Sunday to 2 am Monday period.
Upper level short wave entering northwest North Dakota mid to late
afternoon will help develop thunderstorms in western North Dakota,
while a surface boundary should be located near the South Dakota
border and may focus thunderstorm development in that area too
very late afternoon and early this evening. Storms will become a
larger rain and thunderstorm complex as it moves east thru the
area during the late evening. Hail and wind are the main threats,
but there is some potential for tornadoes near the surface
boundary in southern North Dakota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

dtr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
953 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

MNZ029-NDZ052-053-261530-
Wilkin MN-Sargent ND-Richland ND-
953 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WILKIN...RICHLAND AND
EASTERN SARGENT COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

At 953 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near De Lamere to near Hamlin to near Veblen.
Movement was east at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wahpeton, Breckenridge, Hankinson, Lidgerwood, Wyndmere, Fairmount
and Mooreton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9740 4610 9738 4626 9738 4650 9654
      4602 9654 4602 9658 4593 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 1453Z 253DEG 47KT 4622 9724 4613 9724 4593 9727

BP