Hurricane and Tornadoes in North Carolina, September 14 to 16, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
412 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Florence will move slowly westward toward Cape Fear,
making landfall this morning and then continue on its very slow
southwest motion along the coast through tonight. The slow
movement of Florence toward the southwest this weekend, could
lead to life threatening flooding inland, with powerful storm
surge and damaging winds near the coast. Florence is expected to
move into the Appalachian mountains early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM...Hurricane Florence progressing slowly westward
through this morning with a very slow southwest movement through
today. Current track has eye moving on shore over New Hanover
county and making it slowly through Brunswick county reaching
the SC border by this evening. With this slow movement, strong
gusty winds and periods of heavy rain will continue over coastal
NC counties this morning and spreading inland through today.Most
places west of I-95 will see more in the way of outer rain bands
with occasional shwrs initially, with gusty winds increasing
through today. Have seen a max wind gust up to 64kt and expect
some higher gusts as the western eye wall makes its way over the
area. As the eye passes over coastal NC through this afternoon,
a dry slot will cut off pcp for a period of time, but there
will be periods of torrential rain in other spots around the
core and farther out. Winds will remain out of the NW to W
farther south across SC. As the center or eye progresses slowly
SW through Brunswick county this afternoon, a strong on shore
flow will develop across the tip of Cape Fear northward. A
tropical air mass will remain in place with temps in the 70s
early this morning and increasing up between 80 to 85 with
warmest temps in SC.

The center of Florence will continue to track down the SC coast
through tonight with a downward trend in winds, but continuous
rain and flood threat, as well as strong on shore flow flow
across NC coast to produce high storm surge and continuous beach
erosion.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for max amounts upwards
of 15 inches through today mainly across NC counties from
Columbus and Bladen eastward to the coast. The max rainfall will
spread inland and over SC later today through tonight. Please
refer to the various products addressing the more exact details
for the hazards, including Tropical Storm to Hurricane force
winds, flooding rain, storm surge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 Am Friday...The weekend brings abundant rain and
wind, while storm surge remains a dangerous component of
Florence, as her center near the coastal NC/SC border, drifts
westward this period. This essentially widens the storm surge
threat into South Carolina late Saturday and Sunday.

Weekend rainfall, shows a swath of 9-13 inches running along
the NC/SC border, from the coast, inland, surrounded by 5-8 inch
amounts for Saturday and Sunday. This coupled with copious
upstream rainfall in our extensive river basins, will lead to
serious river flooding, threatening communities adjacent to the
rivers. River warnings are posted. Not out of the question,
some rivers gage sites may approach, or even reach record
crests. So far rainbands are crossing perpendicular to our
basins, but this will change in the days ahead.

Tornado threat will linger with the helicity of Florence, this
and the dry air entrainment, will only enhance vertical
circulations, and could lead to velocity couplet spawning over
land and water.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Ridging over the western Atlantic will
break down at the beginning of the forecast period and this will
allow the remnants of Florence to accelerate to the northeast
and away from the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to be expected Monday but will not be as widespread as
previous days. Ridging will gradually build eastward over the
region Tuesday through Thursday resulting in dry weather and
above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 06Z...Hurricane Florence approaching the KILM and will be
just off the coast by 12Z. Hurricane conditions expected most
of this TAF period at KILM with MVFR/IFR likely...spreading into
the remaining terminals this TAF period as the storm moves ever
so slowly west.

Extended Outlook...Hurricane/tropical Storms conditions through
Saturday.  Gradual improvement east to west Sunday into Monday.
VFR Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Latest buoy observations show seas as high
as 12 to 20 ft across the regional waters with winds gusts as
high as 70 to 80 kts. Hurricane Warning remains in effect
through tonight as Florence drifts westward toward the Cape Fear
coast and then makes its way very slowly SW along the coast
through tonight. All Warnings/Watches/Advisories remain status
quo. Seas from Little River Inlet northward will peak in the 18
to 23 ft range. The SC waters will see a peak of 15 to 19 ft.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...13-18 foot seas Saturday, should subside
to 6-11 feet Sunday, as Florence not only weakens, but moves
farther inland. A strong and dangerous onshore wind flow, and
large confused seas will result in a perilous marine
environment. Vessel secured, should remain secured because of
the danger of high winds gusts through the weekend, especially
in TSTMs.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Swells will gradually subside early next
week with relatively light winds. High pressure gradually takes
over later Monday and we should be able to lower all flags.
Southwest flow will turn more westerly on Tuesday as a cold
front approaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Forecast rainfall amounts of 25 to 35 inches over the next few days
could set all-time records for single storm rainfall accumulation.
In Wilmington where rainfall records date back to 1871, these are
the five largest storm-total rainfall events on record.

1  22.54"  Upper Low and Tropical Moisture   9/26 to 9/30/2010
2  19.06"  Hurricane Floyd                   9/14 to 9/16/1999
3  13.99"  Upper Low and Tropical Moisture   10/1 to 10/5/2015
4  13.85"  Hurricane Diana                   9/10 to 9/13/1984
5  13.80"  Tropical Moisture                 10/5 to 10/8/2005

Also of note, Wilmington is having one of its wettest years in
history. Up through yesterday, September 12, year-to-date rainfall
in Wilmington is 63.20" which is 20.97" above normal. Assuming we
really do pick up 20+ inches of rain, we will approach or exceed the
all-time highest annual rainfall total of 83.65" set back in 1877.

Although Florence is not quite as strong now as it was two days ago,
a direct landfall here could still produce one of the lowest five
sea level pressure readings on record for Wilmington. These records
are:

1  959.7 mb  28.34"   Hurricane Floyd   9/16/1999
2  961.4 mb  28.39"   Hurricane Fran    9/5/1996
3  962.1 mb  28.41"   Hurricane Donna   9/11/1960
4  969.9 mb  28.64"   Hurricane Bonnie  9/26/1998
5 970.2 mb 28.65" Nor'easter 3/6/1932

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Hurricane Warning for SCZ054>056-058-059.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039.
     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Hurricane Warning for NCZ096-099-105>110.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087.
     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for NCZ106-
     108-110.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB/ME
AVIATION...MRR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
520 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

AMZ250-252-254-256-150930-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
520 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-150930-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
520 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ107-109-SCZ055-058-150930-
Inland New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-
520 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ105-SCZ059-150930-
Inland Pender-Northern Horry-
520 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ096-099-150930-
Bladen-Columbus-
520 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

Major Hurricane Florence is forecast to reach our area Thursday into
Friday. Depending on the exact path the storm takes, significant or
even catastrophic impacts from wind and flooding rain are possible.
It is critical that you monitor the latest forecasts on this
developing weather situation.

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ087-150930-
Robeson-
520 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

Major Hurricane Florence is forecast to reach our area Thursday into
Friday. Depending on the exact path the storm takes, significant or
even catastrophic impacts from wind and flooding rain are possible.
It is critical that you monitor the latest forecasts on this
developing weather situation.

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-150930-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
520 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
424 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

NCZ105>108-140945-
Inland New Hanover NC-Coastal Pender NC-Inland Pender NC-
Coastal New Hanover NC-
424 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

...INTENSE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED SHORTLY AS THE EYEWALL OF FLORENCE
MOVES ONSHORE...

At 414 AM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated wind
gusts likely in excess of 90 MPH associated with the eyewall of
Hurricane Florence just offshore. These winds will move onshore in
Pender and New Hanover counties between 430 and 530 AM and will be
damaging and life-threatening. Take cover now.

Locations impacted include...
Wilmington, Wrightsville Beach, Surf City, Figure Eight Island,
Hampstead, Topsail Beach, Mayfaire, Murrayville, Topsail, Windemere,
Bayshore, Scotts Hill, Ogden, Porters Neck, Landfall, Kings Grant,
Woodside, Edgecomb and Seagate.

LAT...LON 3440 7758 3427 7775 3418 7781 3425 7789
      3439 7776 3452 7759 3448 7758 3446 7754
      3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0815Z 114DEG 12KT 3435 7761

MLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
613 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

NCZ096-099-105>110-141130-
Inland New Hanover NC-Inland Brunswick NC-Coastal Pender NC-
Columbus NC-Inland Pender NC-Bladen NC-Coastal New Hanover NC-
Coastal Brunswick NC-
613 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

...INTENSE WIND GUSTS AS THE EYEWALL OF FLORENCE MOVES INLAND...

At 605 AM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated wind
gusts likely in excess of 90 MPH associated with the eyewall of
Hurricane Florence as it continues to move inland across
southeastern North Carolina. Wilmington International Airport has
already gusted to 91 MPH! Do not venture outside! Flying debris is a
certainty and can be deadly.

Locations impacted include...
Wilmington, Leland, Carolina Beach, Burgaw, Wrightsville Beach, Kure
Beach, Surf City, Snows Cut, South Masonboro Island, Figure Eight
Island, Rich Inlet, North Masonboro Island, Rowan, Hampstead, Boiling
Spring Lakes, Northwest, Sandyfield, Topsail Beach, Point Caswell and
Long Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7769 3423 7778 3415 7784 3394 7793
      3406 7831 3444 7839 3457 7826 3455 7825
      3456 7825 3465 7817 3461 7772 3451 7759
      3447 7757 3446 7754 3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 1007Z 092DEG 13KT 3428 7784

Ekster

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