Hail in North Carolina, July 5, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
806 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and moist high pressure will persist across the area into
Friday. A stormy cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon
with cooler and drier air working in through the weekend. Mostly
dry conditions will persist Monday and a general warming trend will
occur through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT: KGSP radar shows scattered showers and storms
mainly over the mountains and foothills early this evening,
while other radars show additional showers and storms moving
in from the east (probably propagating westward on a seabreeze
front). Precip chances in the fcst were altered based on the
radar trend. Could still see one or two strong storms owing to
sufficient dCAPE in excess of 800 J/kg across the region, at least
thru mid-evening. Temps were running above the fcst in most places,
so the diurnal temp trend definitely needs adjustment.

Otherwise...easterly flow will weaken later this evening and become
more variable overnight ahead of a cold front that approaches
from the northwest tomorrow. Precip prob will ramp back up in the
morning to early tomorrow afternoon as the front approaches with
most locations rising into the likely range. At first blush, the
potential for severe thunderstorms appears relatively low owing to
weak lapse rates and shear, but any time a frontal boundary gets
involved in July one has to keep the idea of organized severe storms
in mind. Wonder if enough storms develop over the mtns/foothills
by early afternoon if there might be some organization along a
cold pool in the afternoon/evening east of the Blue Ridge. High
temperatures will remain near climatology for tomorrow with low
temps tonight remaining about a category above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:30 PM EDT: The start of this part of the forecast package
has the retrogression of the Burmuda high pressure system west,
while a large trough is located from the mid atlantic seaboard to
New England. This leaves a window of opportunity for a cold front
(or some semblence) to shift through our forecast area (FA) Friday
night into Saturday.

Ongoing convection should still be in full swing Friday evening,
with a slow downward trend by Saturday morning. Precipitable water
values will be moving around, or above, 2.00 inches. Certainly
torrential downpours will be possible. WPC has our area in a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. While it appears movement will
be associated with the storms, the rate of rainfall will be a key to
watch.

Moving on, fronts shifting to our latitude this time of year can
pose problems, as they get hung up, or dissipate. This appears to be
no exception. We will keep a mention of a chance of showers going
Saturday, although lower in our far northern (FA)late in the day. We
have also held onto the mention of thunderstorms in our far southern
FA, and across the southwest mountains of NC and far northeast
Georgia. Those aforementioned areas will not get into the puesdo
wedge like configuration, and bufkit data continues to show elevated
instability.

The forecast for Saturday night and Sunday will feature a reduction
in POPS througout the area, from north to south. By later Sunday we
have held onto small POPS in the Lakelands area.

As far as temperatures, what a change upcoming from the heat. The
latest suite of model data were still showing a strong signal for
cooler temperature both Saturday and Sunday. No reason at this point
to quibble with the output.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM Thursday: The first part of the medium range has not
changed much and there is more confidence in the start of the week.
However, there is more uncertainty in the Days 6 and 7 part of the
forecast as models are flip flopping on their solutions. The
stationary front will slowly dissipate near the FL / GA Line as cool
high pressure over the Midatlantic weakens or somewhat moves out
over the Atlantic. The Midwestern 500mb ridge will at least briefly
build east to heat up our weather in midweek before perhaps a bit
cooler weather returns. Models have been flip flopping on whether
the ridge will remain or the trough has a greater push south. At
this point Monday seems certain we will be about a category below
normal, then Tuesday will be the transition day being near normal.
Wednesday and Thursday we will have above normal temperatures with
afternoon convection. Thursday is most uncertain as the GFS is
establishing a trough over the East and EC maintains a strong ridge
over SE states although Midatlantic has trough from there east.
Seems a broad trough may win in the following weekend. Instability
only skirting western and SW areas early week then getting back to
1000 to 1500 CAPE over much of the area Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR outside of scattered showers and
thunderstorms thru the early morning hours. The deep easterly flow
at low levels will continue, with sfc winds favoring southeast to
south overnight. Guidance once again depicts the development of
an MVFR visibility restriction mainly over the mtns and foothills,
so many of the TAF sites get a brief period around daybreak Friday
to account for this. Friday looks to be more convectively active
as a sfc front drops down from the N/NW late in the day. Sfc wind
should come around to S/SW after sunrise and convection should
fire a bit earlier than usual. The fcst employs a PROB30 for a six
hour window to cover the development of thunderstorms in the late
morning and early afternoon, then a four hour TEMPO window for the
best chance of storms based on the mesoscale model guidance. Wind
will begin to veer to NW with the storms and then eventually to
N or NE behind the front late Friday evening.

Outlook: The passage of a cold front late Friday night may bring
in a low cloud ceiling in the IFR to MVFR range for Saturday
morning. Low clouds and showers may persist into Saturday afternoon
as the frontal boundary settles south of the region. Unsettled
conditions could linger through early next week in the vicinity
of the stalled or dissipating front.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  87%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  92%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  87%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/PM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
450 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
061100-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-
Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
450 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms tonight will gradually wane during the
overnight hours. Before the storms wane the primary threats will be
gusty to damaging winds, torrential rain, and cloud-to-ground
lightning. Small hail may be noted with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...Heavy rain possible. Numerous thunderstorms will cross
the region. Meanwhile, a moist atmosphere established will help promote
torrential downpours, high rainfall rates, and the possibility of
local flash flooding.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
061100-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
450 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms tonight will gradually wane during the late
evening. Before the storms wane the primary threats will be gusty to
damaging winds, torrential rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning.
Small hail may be noted with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...Heavy rain possible. Numerous thunderstorms will cross
the region. A moist atmosphere established will help promote
torrential downpours, high rainfall rates, and the possibility of
local flash flooding.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
507 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

NCZ068-070-052130-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-
507 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
CLEVELAND AND SOUTHWESTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 506 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 4 miles west of Gastonia, or near Bessemer City,
moving southwest at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Kings Mountain, Bessemer City, Crowders Mountain State Park
and South Gastonia.

Strong wind gusts up to 50 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 8132 3517 8137 3529 8144 3534 8121
      3526 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 065DEG 10KT 3527 8125

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
653 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

NCZ035-036-056-052330-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
653 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CATAWBA...CENTRAL
ALEXANDER AND NORTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Taylorsville, or near Stony Point, moving
southwest at 10 mph. This storm is part of a cluster covering
eastern Alexander County and far northwest Iredell County.

Locations to be impacted include...
Taylorsville, Stony Point, Lookout Shoals Lake, Hiddenite, Vashti,
Millersville, Scotts, Oxford, Ellendale and Little River In Alexander
County.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 8091 3572 8109 3590 8130 3603 8108
      3603 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 046DEG 9KT 3588 8107

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
700 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

NCZ502-504-052330-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
700 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CALDWELL AND EAST
CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 700 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Hickory, or over Connelly Springs, moving west at 10
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Valdese, Icard, Drexel, Connelly Springs, Rutherford College,
Rhodhiss, Lake Rhodhiss and Hildebran.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 8141 3570 8143 3571 8163 3584 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 105DEG 9KT 3575 8151

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
734 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

NCZ052-053-060000-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-
734 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL HAYWOOD AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 733 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Downtown Asheville, or near Enka, moving southwest at
10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Enka, West Asheville, Greater Canton, and Candler.

Strong wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea to dime size hail and very heavy
rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 8266 3559 8258 3544 8273 3555 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 044DEG 8KT 3558 8269

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
737 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

NCZ051-060000-
Swain NC-
737 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM EDT...

At 736 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Bryson City, or near Deep Creek in the Smoky
Mountains, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Bryson City, Deep Creek, the
Fontana Area, Clingmans Dome, Newfound Gap, Luada, Almond and a
portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8353 3556 8350 3559 8347 3550 8336
      3533 8354 3539 8359 3541 8358 3542 8359
      3543 8359 3543 8361 3544 8363 3550 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 048DEG 10KT 3550 8349

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
800 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

NCZ501-502-504-060030-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
800 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND
CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 800 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Lenoir, or near Gamewell, moving west at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gamewell, Collettsville and Oak Hill.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8157 3581 8156 3577 8175 3588 8176
      3590 8173 3591 8175 3592 8175 3593 8176
      3596 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 083DEG 8KT 3586 8165

08