Multiple disturbances rotating around an upper-level low across the Ohio Valley produced multiple clusters of showers and storms across central NC during the late evening and overnight hours. Convection congealed into an MCS-like complex and pushed east during the overnight hours which produced some isolated wind damage and pockets of heavy rainfall which produced flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Multiple disturbances rotating around an upper-level low across the Ohio Valley produced multiple clusters of showers and storms across central NC during the late evening and overnight hours. Convection congealed into an MCS-like complex and pushed east during the overnight hours which produced some isolated wind damage and pockets of heavy rainfall which produced flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 21, 7:48 PM EST, 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 848 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A mid and upper level low pressure will move SE through the TN Valley toward the southern Appalachians through Sunday. The upper trough is forecast to remain just west of our region, bringing a deep, moist, southerly flow through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Saturday... A large mid-level closed low over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will set the stage for an unsettled weather pattern during much of the near, short, and even long term periods. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure now centered over SE VA and NE NC will move northward tonight, having little additional impact on our weather. The main wx story for this evening and overnight will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop to our west over the mountains during the next few hours, aided by a mid- level short wave that will rotate eastward around the southern side of the aforementioned closed low. This thunderstorm activity is then progged by most CAMs to move east across the western Piedmont during the evening hours, then across the eastern Piedmont by midnight, before decreasing in coverage and intensity as it approaches the Coastal Plain after midnight. Given the timing of this activity and resulting limited instability over our area, and best deep layer shear to our south, the expectation at this point is that most storms should remain below svr criteria; however, an isolated strong storm with gusty winds can't be entirely ruled out given the dynamic forcing present with this activity. Lows tonight around 70. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Saturday... The day should start of quiet with subsidence behind tonight's short wave and convection. Then as the day progresses and the closed mid- level low over the Ohio Valley drifts south, we may see another round of showers and thunderstorms develop to our west over the mountains and move east into our western zones during the late-day or evening period. In terms of temperatures, we should see more sunshine on Sunday compared to today given that the coastal system will be gone and given aforementioned early-day subsidence over our area, thus look for highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday... A piece of the closed mid-level low is progged to break off and slowly drift into deep south region, resulting in a long fetch of deep moist south to southeasterly flow to become established over central and eastern NC beginning Monday and lingering perhaps into Wednesday, before the closed low begins to open up and lift toward the northeast during the late-week period. The end result will be unsettled, to perhaps wet weather right through the long term period. Temps during this time will be dependent on whether any breaks in the rain/clouds happen, so for now, will stay close to climo, or perhaps a few degrees below climo. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 845 PM Saturday... A strong upper level disturbance will lift newd across the srn Appalachians and Carolinas tonight, where it will interact with a surface frontal zone draped at 00Z from near EXX to FAY to PGV. A weak frontal/surface low and related compact cluster of showers and storms will likely develop and track newd across cntl NC tonight, thereby causing initially VFR conditions to become sub-VFR as the convection moves overhead. Additionally, patches of mainly MVFR ceilings may develop along and north of the front, including at all of the cntl NC TAF sites, late tonight and early Sunday. A risk of an MVFR ceiling will then persist through around 16Z, after which time cloud bases will have lifted and/or scattered to VFR range. While scattered showers and storms are expected again Sunday afternoon and evening, confidence in timing and location precludes inclusion in the TAFs at this time. Outlook: Moist and perturbed sly deep layer flow will result in an above average chance of showers and storms, and late night-early day sub-VFR ceilings, through the middle of next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...np AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 921 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 NCZ007>011-026>028-230130- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe- 921 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring locally heavy rainfall during the work week. The greatest threat for thunderstorms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and evening hours each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ021>025-038>043-078-230130- Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham- Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne- 921 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A few strong thunderstorms are possible overnight. The primary threat is expected to be wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH and periods of heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring locally heavy rainfall during the work week. The greatest threat for thunderstorms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and evening hours each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089-230130- Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke- Cumberland-Sampson- 921 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight. The primary threat is expected to be locally damaging winds and periods of heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring locally heavy rainfall during the work week. The greatest threat for thunderstorms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and evening hours each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
911 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018
NCZ075-084>086-220215-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Hoke NC-Moore NC-
911 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MOORE... NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND...CENTRAL
RICHMOND AND HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...
At 909 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles north of
Rockingham to near Hoffman. Movement was east northeast at 15 mph.
Wind gusts up to 45 or 50 mph and pea-sized hail will be possible
with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Southern Pines, Rockingham, Raeford, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Hoffman,
Pinebluff, Ellerbe, Foxfire and Norman.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts of this
magnitude are capable of producing tree damage, including isolated
instances of knocking down small or weakened trees. Unsecured, light
outdoor objects may also blow around.
&&
LAT...LON 3502 7989 3504 7988 3507 7991 3510 7991
3518 7973 3518 7968 3516 7964 3516 7962
3517 7962 3520 7966 3522 7922 3516 7910
3513 7911 3493 7906 3492 7908 3488 7960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 255DEG 15KT 3506 7983 3499 7954
26The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 133 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:32 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A power-line was reported down across Page Street.
One tree was blown down along Foxfire Road.
One tree was reported down on Coldwater Road, near U.S. Highway 158.
One tree was reported down on Stanely Huff Road, near Deer Meadow Lane.
Dime to quarter size hail was reported along Buffalo Lake Road, near Carolina Lakes Road.
Trees were reported down along Kennebec Church Road.
Multiple trees were blown down near NC Highway 42.
One tree was reported down near the intersection of Fanny Brown Road and Banks Road.
One tree was blown down near the intersection of Washington and Wall Streets.
Multiple trees reported down near Coats. Minor damage to a structure was reported on Brick Mill Road. Monetary damages unknown.
Flash flooding was reported at the intersection of NC Highway 42 and NC Highway 39.
US 301 N at Bryan McLamb Lane closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 776173, 776177, 776181, 776184, 776189, 776191, 776195, 776196, 776197, 776211, 776202, 776209.