Damaging Winds in North Carolina, January 12, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
714 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move offshore early Saturday. Cold High
pressure will build north of the area Sunday through Monday.
Another reinforcing cold front will cross the area mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 710 PM Friday...No major changes to the current forecast.
Regional radar showing initial band of moderate to heavy showers
now moving across the Sounds and toward the Outer Banks. Up to
one-half inch of rain has occurred with these bands. Continuing
to monitor line of heavy showers extending from the Greensboro
south to the NC/SC border. With decent low-level jet, showers
with this line may mix strong some strong gusty winds and
produce gusts that just below severe criteria. While lightning
will be minimal with these storms with weak lapse rates, but the
wind threat may exist into the early morning hours. Could be
some localized flooding as well, though not expecting big
flooding issues due to the fast movement of the convective line
later. Shower chances diminish quickly after around midnight to
2 am, with rapid drying, and thus drastically lower pops late
tonight. Temps quite warm most of the night as area is in the
warm sector, finally dropping back to the low/mid 50s by
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 335 PM Fri...The upper level shortwave pivots through on
Sat. Most of the area should be shower free, though good forcing
aloft with shallow moisture will mean some iso to sct showers,
best chcs north and east. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and
temps exhibiting a cooling trend through the afternoon, with
highs in the 50s realized in the morning before falling through
the 40s in the afternoon as sfc winds become N to NW. Cold night
Sat night with low temps ranging in the low 20s interior to
around 30 on the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 PM Fri...Updated portion of the long term focusing on
mid week precip potential. Brief warmup occurs Tue ahead of next
arctic blast. 12/12Z GFS has come into better agreement with
wetter ECMWF, and thus introduced pops Tue night through Wed
night. Tricky fcst, as thermal profiles suggest some wintry
precip possible. May start as fzra/ra Tue night esp interior,
then a rain or snow mix Wed. ECM is quite a bit warmer and
indicative of all rain, while GFS cold and mainly snow, while
CMC is mainly dry and cold. Will have a ra/sn mix coastal plain
with just rain coast. Then upr trough/cold front move through on
Wed night and will be a race between departing deep moisture and
cold thermal profiles. May be a bief window for mostly light
snow Wed night before dry and cold arrive. Stay tuned as we
refine the forecast in the coming days.

Previous discussion...As of 245 AM Fri...Pred dry weather and
below normal temperatures expected through most of the period.

Saturday through Monday...Could see isolated showers re-develop
Saturday with the secondary cold front, but expect coverage to
be minimal. Increased cloud cover Sat with forecast soundings
and SREF showing the potential for low clouds lingering through
the day into Sat night. Expect to see highs in the 50s early
Saturday, then falling into the 40s during the afternoon with
increased CAA. Overnight lows Sat night likely dropping into
the 20s for most locations. Temps well below normal for Sunday
and Monday. Low level thickness values and 850mb temps support
highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, with Sunday being the coldest
day...with some spots maybe struggling to get to the mid 30s.
Overnight lows in the teens to upper 20s Monday morning and mid
20s to low 30s Tue morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...Significant model differences
continue mid week with the next system. A strong upper trough
will approach the area, pushing a cold front through the region
mid week. The ECMWF is much deeper with the approaching trough
and upper low, inducing cyclogenesis off the NC coast Wed. The
GFS keeps the weak low much further offshore and moisture
mainly north of the area, while the ECMWF develops a stronger
low closer to the coast, with precip across the area. However,
the ECMWF is much warmer and at this time looks like the thermal
profiles would support mainly rain, with a case of the cold air
likely chasing the moisture late Wed. Will continue to trend
with the drier and colder GFS/WPC, though if the wetter ECMWF
runs continue may need to introduce pops into the forecast mid
week and raise temps. Low level WSW develops Tue and could see
highs get into the mid 40s/50 deg. Likely colder for Wed and Thu
with highs likely 35-40 deg...and lows in the teens to 20s. The
GFS shows 850mb temps falling to around -16C Wed and Wed night.
High pressure is forecast to build in from the west late week
with gradual warmup.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 715 PM Fri...Expect a lengthy period of IFR ceilings as
second area of heavy showers approaches from the west over the
next several hours. Model time sections should these lower
clouds hanging into until mid afternoon on Saturday before
scattering out as lower dewpoints advect in during the
afternoon. Gusty NW winds will accompany the drier air Saturday
afternoon as conditions improve to VFR in all areas by late in
the day.

Long Term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 245 AM Fri...Forecast soundings and SREF support sub-VFR
ceilings lingering Saturday, possibly into Sat night. Pred VFR
conditions expected Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Saturday/...
As of 715 PM Friday...Winds continue to ramp up across the
coastal waters with gusts as high as 37 knots at Diamond Buoy.
Seas have reached 8-10 feet over the outer waters. Winds coming
up a bit more slowly over the Sounds, but are starting to gust
to around 25 knots. The gradient peaks this evening, then
winds diminish some but winds/seas remain in the SCA range
through Sat and beyond. Seas will peak this evening as high as
14 ft across the outer central waters where gales will blow.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 245 AM Fri...Prolonged period of SCA conditions will
continue through Sunday night and early Monday. Gusty SW winds
will continue early Sat, with seas peaking at 6-12 ft early.
Winds become N 15-25 kt Sat night and Sun. Seas 5-9 ft Sat night
subsiding to 4-8 ft Sun. NNE winds 10-20 kt Sun night
diminishing to 10-15 kt Mon afternoon. Elevated seas at or above
6 ft expected to continue into Sun night, likely into early
Monday for the central waters. Lighter winds and seas expected
Monday night and Tuesday. Winds diminishing to 5-10 kt with seas
subsiding to 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Saturday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/TL
MARINE...CTC/CQD/TL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
414 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-132115-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Craven-Pamlico-Carteret-Onslow-
Outer Banks Dare-Outer Banks Hyde-
414 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will cross the region
tonight ahead of a cold front. These showers and isolated storms
could produce some strong wind gusts as they cross.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A light wintry mix is possible during the mid week time frame.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1004 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018

NCZ093-095-130330-
Craven-Carteret-
1004 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CRAVEN AND CARTERET
COUNTIES...

At 1004 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Pine Knoll
Shores, or near Newport, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morehead City, Newport, South River, North River, Sealevel, Davis,
Smyrna, Merrimon, Straits, Pine Knoll Shores, Harlowe, Otway, Broad
Creek, Great Neck, Wildwood, Williston, Open Grounds Farm, North
Harlowe, Stacy and Bettie.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3458 7690 3473 7702 3505 7649 3482 7632
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 238DEG 22KT 3470 7689

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1029 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018

NCZ095-104-130400-
Outer Banks Hyde-Carteret-
1029 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OUTER BANKS HYDE AND
NORTHEASTERN CARTERET COUNTIES...

At 1029 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Atlantic, or
10 miles south of Cedar Island, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sealevel, Atlantic, Stacy, Portsmouth Village, Ocracoke Light House,
Ocracoke Ferry Terminal and Ocracoke Lighthouse.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3499 7572 3472 7634 3488 7646 3522 7589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 238DEG 49KT 3485 7633

11

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>