What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 6:34 PM EST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 6:34 PM EST, 2 hours 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
734 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will persist over the area into Wednesday. Then
a cold front will approach from the northwest and settle just
southeast of the area by Thursday. Seasonally warm temperatures and
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week. The front
will persist in the vicinity through the weekend, with deeper
moisture returning from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4:45p EDT Tuesday: Updated forecast to account for near term
convective trends. Activity is fairly widely scattered and has been
declining earlier than usual over the last hour. Blend of CAMs was
used as basis for POPs in first 6 hours. Some fairly strong
updrafts have been seen so far this evening, with some continuing
chance for severe hail or wind, especially with cluster moving
southeast out of Pickens/Northern Greenville Counties.
A seasonably weak pressure field exists over the Southeast, with a
lobe of the Bermuda High extending onshore, while a trough extends
down the northern half of the Eastern Seaboard. A corresponding low-
amplitude upper ridge is present overhead, with light southwesterly
winds. Dewpoints remain exceptionally high at many obs sites, in the
lower to mid 70s, but may mix out a bit in the next couple of hours.
As has occurred the past couple of days, SBCAPE values have shot up
past 2500 J/kg, and storms fired over the mountain ridges around
noon.
Flat upper ridging will prevail over the region tonight into
Wednesday. As the upper trough advects east the flow becomes more
zonal, but heights do not fall appreciably across the Carolinas
or north Georgia. Low-level flow thus responds little and remains
west-southwesterly. In advance of the cold front moving thru the
Ohio/Tenn valleys, the trough east of the mountains does become a
bit better defined during the day Wed. Lapse rates manage to improve
a wee bit, and under slightly warmer sfc conditions, SBCAPE values
are progged to be a little higher at peak heating Wed. Given the
trough and better instability, we will advertise likely PoPs over
the mountains and chance values in the Piedmont. Height contours do
become a little better packed aloft tomorrow, and accordingly 0-6km
and 0-3km shear are slightly better. However, those are not strong
enough to suggest a significant enhancement to severe threat beyond
that posed by the large SBCAPE and marginally strong sfc-midlevel
delta-theta-E. Max temps will be normal across most of the area,
but perhaps a category above in the lower Piedmont zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 pm Tuesday: Broad upper trough will remain in place across
much of the East through the period, with attendant weak frontal
zone and associated deep moisture plume expected to ooze into the
forecast area through the end of the week. As such, very typical
mid-summer weather is expected to end the week, with much of the
area expected to see near-normal temps and near-climo pops for
primarily diurnal convection through the period. A possible
exception to this trend will be the NC mtns, particularly closer to
the TN border, where pops are advertised in the 50-60% range Thu and
Fri afternoon/evening to account for potential impacts from
convection developing along the frontal zone across the TN Valley
and wandering into the southern Appalachians by the end of the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday: An upper trough will close off into a low
over the Great Lakes over the weekend. The models are in decent
agreement on the depth and position of the low, but the GFS is just
a little SW of the ECMWF and more elongated N-S. Overall, the
differences do not have much impact on our sensible weather
forecast. A frontal boundary will remain draped across the
Southeast, from the Arklatex region thru the I-85 corridor of the
Carolinas. This should be a focus for enhanced convective coverage
thru the weekend, still mostly diurnally driven. The upper low will
quickly pivot NE and allow another front to drop in from the NW.
This front should push thru by Tuesday and bring some drier air into
the CWFA. The highest PoPs look to be Sunday and Monday, with
possibly a dry day on Tuesday. Temps will be near to slightly below
normal for afternoon highs, but still above normal for overnight
lows due to the expected enhanced moisture across the area. The 12z
Guidance doesn't seem to be hinting at much of a widespread heavy
rain threat. Although, isolated excessive rainfall/flooding will be
possible thanks to our we antecedent conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers have mostly ended this evening with
only a few widely scatter showers remaining that are unlikely to
directly impact a TAF site. Chances for thunderstorms go up again
Wednesday afternoon in the same diurnal pattern with initiation over
higher terrain and southeastward movement into piedmont areas. CAMs
produce more coverage in afternoon thunder on Wednesday, and have
included a PROB30 for each TAF site as a result. Morning fog is
also expected to follow recent patterns, with IFR possible for a few
hours in mountain valleys and areas prone to fog (as KAVL). Surface
winds also increase slightly with less VRB and more prevailing
southwesterly flow of around 5 kts.
Outlook: Typical mid-summer conditions are fcst the next several
days. Diurnal, scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly
in the afternoons, with coverage tending to increase toward the
weekend. Associated morning restrictions will be possible each day,
especially in mountain valleys.
Confidence Table...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 83% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 83% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...Wimberley/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...WJMHazardous weather outlook, Aug 7, 4:29 PM EST, 4 hours 24 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
529 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-082130-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
529 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across the
mountains into the evening. Any of these thunderstorms may produce
cloud-to-ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and briefly gusty
winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase from Wednesday onward,
especially during the afternoon and evening periods. Primary impacts
will include cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty
winds.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-082130-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
529 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue across the
Piedmont and foothills into the evening. While the main threats will
be from cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall, one or
two storms could produce brief severe weather in the form of
damaging winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase from Wednesday onward,
especially during the afternoon and evening periods. The main
impacts will include cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and
gusty winds.
Heat Index values of 95 to 100 will be likely once again on
Wednesday and Thursday. A few lower piedmont locations may see
values as high as 102 on Wednesday afternoon.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
Lane
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 7, 5:51 PM EST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
GAZ017-018-072315-
Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
651 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
STEPHENS AND HABERSHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...
At 651 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms with intense lightning along a line extending from 6
miles northeast of Cleveland to near Clarkesville to 5 miles
northwest of Toccoa, and moving east at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Clarkesville, Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Mount Airy, Alto,
Batesville, Turnerville and Hollywood.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.
&&
LAT...LON 3454 8362 3460 8365 3462 8364 3465 8366
3473 8362 3476 8363 3478 8365 3481 8360
3479 8356 3476 8356 3474 8353 3473 8349
3473 8346 3454 8311 3447 8334 3446 8340
3449 8354 3446 8358 3446 8361 3451 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 248DEG 11KT 3467 8370 3461 8352 3463 8341
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 7:19 PM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
819 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
NCZ036-069>071-080045-
Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-
819 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTH CENTRAL IREDELL...NORTHWESTERN
MECKLENBURG AND NORTHEASTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...
At 819 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 11 miles southeast of Lincolnton, or near Stanley,
moving east at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Cornelius, Mooresville, Mt Holly, Davidson, Stanley,
Westport, Iron Station, Ramsey Creek Park and Northeast Charlotte.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3529 8112 3546 8118 3560 8080 3551 8076
3551 8078 3550 8079 3542 8075 3540 8077
3535 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 252DEG 20KT 3540 8107
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 7:32 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
832 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
GAZ010-017-SCZ001-080100-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
832 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
HABERSHAM...CENTRAL RABUN AND WEST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 900
PM EDT...
At 832 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 11 miles northwest of Clarkesville, or 5 miles
southwest of Lake Burton, moving east at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Mountain City, Tiger, Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lake
Burton, Moccasin Creek State Park, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge State
Park and Black Rock Mountain State Park.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3482 8365 3484 8366 3496 8334 3471 8324
3465 8365 3467 8366 3467 8365 3469 8364
3471 8364 3473 8362 3476 8363 3479 8367
3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 260DEG 20KT 3476 8360
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 7:47 PM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
847 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
NCZ036-069>072-080115-
Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-
847 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
WESTERN CABARRUS...EASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...
MECKLENBURG AND EASTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...
At 847 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms with intense lightning along a line extending from 8
miles northwest of Huntersville to 4 miles northeast of Uptown
Charlotte to 7 miles southeast of Gastonia, and moving east at 15
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Downtown Concord, Gastonia,
Kannapolis, Central Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, Southwest
Charlotte, East Charlotte and Northwest Charlotte.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.
&&
LAT...LON 3527 8048 3512 8088 3517 8120 3531 8111
3553 8111 3557 8077 3554 8074 3551 8074
3551 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 273DEG 15KT 3548 8099 3529 8080 3520 8105
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 8:13 PM EST, 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
913 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
NCZ071-072-080145-
Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-
913 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CABARRUS
AND MECKLENBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...
At 913 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 5 miles northeast of
Huntersville to 7 miles southwest of Downtown Concord to 8 miles
southwest of Uptown Charlotte, and moving east at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Central
Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, East Charlotte,
Northwest Charlotte and West Concord.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.
&&
LAT...LON 3528 8044 3509 8080 3510 8093 3511 8093
3510 8095 3510 8103 3514 8105 3516 8100
3525 8101 3534 8093 3551 8087 3550 8046
3537 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 266DEG 15KT 3545 8076 3532 8068 3516 8097
RWHSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 8:42 PM EST, 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
942 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
NCZ071-072-082-080215-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-
942 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
CABARRUS...SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 PM EDT...
At 942 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms with intense lightning along a line extending from
near Downtown Concord to 17 miles north of Monroe to 6 miles south of
Uptown Charlotte, and moving east at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Central Charlotte,
South Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, East
Charlotte, West Concord and Matthews.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.
&&
LAT...LON 3519 8051 3518 8050 3518 8048 3516 8046
3516 8044 3517 8042 3517 8039 3518 8037
3517 8036 3504 8070 3509 8092 3511 8093
3510 8095 3511 8101 3549 8065 3550 8046
3550 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 277DEG 13KT 3542 8059 3523 8062 3514 8085
RWH