What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 10, 5:30 PM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 10, 5:30 PM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
630 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will remain stalled across the region into the
weekend, with seasonably warm temperatures and afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. An upper level disturbance will move
across the area on Monday leading to drier weather on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 PM EDT Friday...Vort energy will continue to encroach upon
and cross the cwfa tonight, helping to maintain scattered if not
numerous coverage of deep convection, especially north of west
of I- 85 where axis of higher sbcape values lie. Effective shear
remains in the 20-30 kt range, so expect storms to hold
together a little better than pure pulse mode, but overall
intensity should be sub- severe. Cannot rule out one or two
severe storms with wind being the main threat. Also, we're in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Isolated minor flooding
will be possible wherever storms can manage to train/back-build.
Overnight, convection should wane/drift east of the FA by late
evening. As the vort max crosses the area, there should be a fair
amount of mid clouds around. But with most areas likely getting some
rain today, patchy fog will develop, especially in the mountain
valleys. Lows will be slightly above normal (60s mountains to lower
70s piedmont).
Saturday, an upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes and into
the Ohio Valley, bringing more height falls atop the FA. A weak
front will approach from the NW and should trigger another round of
scattered to numerous showers and tstms across the high terrain.
Storms will then drift east into the piedmont. Severe threat should
be low, with a marginal excessive rainfall risk. Highs will be about
a category below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday: As we move into the start of the short term
period, a sharp upper wave will be in the process of closing off
over the Great Lakes, stretching SW toward a weakness over TX. The
upper low will slowly slide toward the Midwest and break off from
the TX weakness through the period. Intermittent impulses/waves with
associated jetlets will rotate around the base of the cutoff low and
up the Eastern Seaboard Sunday, while a remnant trough/boundary will
remain stretched over the Piedmont. Another round of above-climo
pops is expected especially across the mountains and NW Piedmont
Sunday afternoon, and with decent mid-level lapse rates with the
proximity to the upper low, if SBCAPEs are able to recover then we
could get a little more intensity to the storms. As is typical, the
NAM is quite a bit higher than the GFS with instability (>2500J/kg
vs. ~1500J/kg).
The upper low will begin to shift east on Monday, a little faster
than previous runs, with the trough axis generally over the Blue
Ridge by midday. The lack of upper forcing, which will be to our
east by this point, and the departing remnant front/boundary, will
serve to minimize though not quite eliminate pops for Monday
afternoon. Best chances would be up the I-77 corridor closer to the
forcing and of course the mountains with the mechanical lift. With
the base of the trough pushing through, upper jet beginning to lift
out does bring some 30->40kt deep-layer shear to the area, so even
though coverage will be minimize, will have to monitor forecast
trends in case there is an uptick in intensity. Highs a couple of
degrees below seasonal normals through the period and lows a couple
of degrees above.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday: Upper trough axis pushes east Tuesday into
Wednesday, as another shortwave pushes across the MS Valley by
midweek and yet another drops into the northern Plains. Convective
minimum expected for Tuesday, and the updated forecast has basically
<15% pops everywhere, maybe a few areas with some slight chances but
overall the trends are down. As the MS Valley wave approaches
Wednesday, should see an uptick in mountain convection, with more
widespread pops expected Thursday as the shortwave begins to damp
and push across the Appalachians, forced by the deepening incoming
northern Plains wave. This trend continues into the end of the
period and the new Day 7. Temperatures within a couple of degrees of
seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mid-level wave is approaching the western
Carolinas this aftn and will help trigger scattered to numerous
showers and tstms from late aftn thru the evening. Most of the
activity will start in the high terrain, then generally drift west
across the NC piedmont and northern Upstate. So all sites will carry
either VCTS or TEMPO for TSRA. Activity should wane late this
evening. With the wave passing by overnight, a fair amount of mid-
level clouds may linger thru the night. This may limit fog and
stratus formation. However, the mountain valleys will likely fog up
again before daybreak. On Saturday, another upper disturbance and
associated weak front will approach the area from the NW. So another
round of aftn showers and tstms is expected. Winds will be light
thru the period, except around tstms. With a front near the area,
winds will shift from N/NE to S/SW this aftn. Then toggle back to
N/NW for Saturday.
Outlook: Expect aftn/evening scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day through Monday with periods of MVFR/IFR possible due to low
cigs and heavy downpours. Morning restrictions due to areas of
fog/low cigs will also be possible each day, especially in mountain
valleys. Drier weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Confidence Table...
22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z 16-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 97% High 87% High 88%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 96%
KAVL High 100% High 84% Med 75% High 92%
KHKY High 100% High 87% High 94% High 92%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 96%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 87% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARKHazardous weather outlook, Aug 10, 6:42 PM EST, 18 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
742 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-112345-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
742 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Thunderstorms will linger across much of the region though late
evening. A few strong storms remain possible, producing a period
of heavy rain, gusty wind and/or frequent cloud to ground lightning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Thunderstorm coverage will be fairly high each afternoon and evening
from Saturday through Monday. The main impacts will be cloud-to-
ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated flooding
will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Aug 10, 3:05 PM EST, 3 hours 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 NW CARNESVILLE 34.44N 83.33W
08/09/2018 FRANKLIN GA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
FIRE DEPT/RESCUE REPORTED ONE TREE DOWN ALONG THE 7000
BLOCK OF GA 320.
&&
JMPSpecial weather statement, Aug 10, 3:12 PM EST, 3 hours 48 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
412 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
SCZ002-102045-
Pickens Mountains SC-
412 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Pickens, or 4 miles north of Jocassee Gorges,
moving east at 5 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Jocassee Gorges, Lake Jocassee, Keowee Toxaway State Park, Sunset,
Nine Times, Rocky Bottom and Sassafras Mountain.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Lake Jocassee is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.
&&
LAT...LON 3501 8293 3501 8291 3502 8292 3504 8292
3506 8289 3507 8286 3506 8276 3505 8275
3489 8281 3495 8291 3497 8292 3498 8294
3499 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 287DEG 6KT 3502 8286
08Special weather statement, Aug 10, 4:39 PM EST, 2 hours 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
539 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
NCZ053-102215-
Buncombe NC-
539 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...
At 537 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Downtown Asheville, or near Warren Wilson College,
moving east at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include... Black Mountain, Swannanoa, the
B.R. Parkway between the Arboretum and Craggy Gardens, Warren Wilson
College, Fairview In Buncombe County, the east side of Asheville,
and Montreat.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3575 8233 3573 8231 3573 8229 3571 8228
3568 8229 3567 8228 3565 8229 3562 8227
3559 8229 3556 8226 3555 8221 3553 8247
3565 8253 3577 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 247DEG 7KT 3562 8242
08Special weather statement, Aug 10, 5:06 PM EST, 1 hour 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
606 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
NCZ510-SCZ003-006-007-102245-
Eastern Polk NC-Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
606 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL POLK...
NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL
645 PM EDT...
At 605 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
across northern Greenville County, moving east at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Greer, Travelers Rest, Duncan, Lyman, Landrum, Wellford, Inman,
Campobello, Paris Mountain State Park and Lake Bowen.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3492 8247 3513 8251 3525 8206 3491 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 263DEG 10KT 3503 8231
08
Special weather statement, Aug 10, 5:44 PM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
SCZ003-006-007-102330-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
644 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL
730 PM EDT...
At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms with intense lightning near Inman and Gowensville,
moving east at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Duncan, Lyman, Wellford, Inman,
Campobello, Lake Bowen, USC Upstate and Greer.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3495 8228 3513 8227 3518 8195 3488 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 273DEG 8KT 3504 8215
08
Special weather statement, Aug 10, 6:29 PM EST, 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
729 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
SCZ007-008-110015-
Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-
729 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL
815 PM EDT...
At 729 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning and torrential rainfall 4 miles northwest of Spartanburg,
or near USC Upstate, moving east at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Pacolet, Cowpens, Wellford, Inman,
Mayo, Roebuck, Pacolet Mills and Croft State Park.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3491 8210 3499 8212 3507 8209 3511 8172
3489 8174 3483 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 273DEG 15KT 3499 8200
08