An upper level disturbance moved across New York State sparking a few severe thunderstorms in central New York in the late afternoon and evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance moved across New York State sparking a few severe thunderstorms in central New York in the late afternoon and evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 3:02 PM EST, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 402 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A couple rounds of storms tonight as weak disturbances move through. A slight chance for storms lingers Sunday with warm and moist conditions, then Monday turns even warmer with our best chances for storms Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a cold front. This moves out by early Wednesday with high pressure bringing in sunny and quiet weather for the rest of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... For the rest of this afternoon and this evening, a convectively induced wave which was more defined this morning was moving toward NY and northern Pa. Visible satellite imagery (red band) shows strong insolation in NY and Pa which will continue to destabilize the atmosphere across central NY and northeast Pa. We expect mixed layer CAPEs to reach close to 1000 J/kg by the time the wave begins to influence our forecast area from late afternoon into the evening. 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes were between 25 and 30 knots with weaker shear below this layer. The effective shear was between 30 and 45 knots in the eastern lakes with this approaching wave presently as per SPC mesoanalysis. Our local severe weather checklist gave us several wind damage events. DCAPEs were running 700-800 J/kg with low-level lapse rates 7.5 to 8 C/km suggesting potential for some decent wind gusts probably in the 40-50 mph realm with a small chance for severe wind gusts. This could be a situation where it won't take as deep convection to produce stronger wind gusts because of the DCAPE and continuing steepening low-level lapse rates. So we have mainly likely POPs between about 21z and 03z from northwest to southeast across our forecast area. We have potential for strong wind gusts in our HWO and also our one slide DSS briefing. After 03z, the NAMnest suggests another round of convection fires as another short wave seen on the water vapor imagery in the northern lakes drops southeast behind this more convectively induced wave. We continue POPs for showers and thunderstorms well into the night to account for this. If this next batch becomes more extensive then we will have to be concerned for localized flood potential. There is uncertainty related to this as the NAMnest now indicate a very progressive looking broken line of storms. The HRRR also suggests more progressive storms. Precipitable water values are around 1.75 inches. So we did continue mention of locally heavy rainfall for all storms late afternoon through this evening at least in HWO, grids and our one slide DSS briefing. For Sunday, there will be a left-over boundary which could be convectively induced in the vicinity of the NY/PA border. Another mid-level wave(Illinois MCV?) will move toward NY and PA and provide more lifting to trigger more showers and storms with a focus on the stalled boundary. So we continued slight chance to chance POPs with the highest POPs in northeast Pa/southern Tier of NY. One again, CAPES will be decent and potentially higher than today with the NAM having mixed layer CAPEs over 2000 J/kg. Bulk shears 0-6 km are fairly weak though. Precipitable water values are a bit higher pushing 2 inches suggesting again locally heavy rainfall. There is more uncertainty Sunday because the convection that will influence this mid-level wave is still forming. SPC has area in general thunder so we will not enhance wording at this juncture. WPC also does not have our area in any flash flood risk as well. Sunday night, upper level ridging builds in and we dry things out. However, convectively induced waves could mess this up but we will hold course on less than 15 POPs for now looking at the 4 main synoptic models and the positioning of the upper level ridge axis overhead and to our east. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Our region will be in a southwest flow pattern with a cold front to the west and a high pressure system off the east coast on Monday. Warm and moist air will continue to advect into the region. Operational models and the respective ensembles are fairly consistent with a frontal timing on Tuesday. Moisture and lift will be sufficient enough to produce showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. The highest chances for showers and storms continue to be Monday night and Tuesday and we continued likely pops. PW values look to rise to around 2 inches, so we have added heavy rain wording to the forecast with the storms. Instability and shear both look on the marginal side for any strong to severe storms along with poor frontal timing for any severe event. Temperatures have trended upward Monday given modeled 925 mb temperatures around 25C should get many locations near or even slightly above 90. With the added humidity, locations from the Finger Lakes and Elmira northeast toward Syracuse and Rome may see top heat index values near 95. We have added wording to the HWO for this possibility. Lows will be muggy both Monday night in the 60's. Cooler and drier air will come in behind the front later on Tuesday with a slow decrease in storms from west to east throughout the day. Highs should cool back into the 70's and low 80's with lows Tuesday night generally falling back into the 50's to around 60. Winds look to be around or under 10 mph outside any thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and storms move out of the SE portions of our area by early Wednesday morning as the cold front pushes to our east and high pressure begins to build in. Drier air working in will allow for a return to mostly sunny skies by the late morning/afternoon Wednesday. High pressure remains in control Thursday and Friday, with sunny and quiet conditions. Temperatures in the 70s to around 80F Wednesday, then as winds gradually turn over to the south temperatures increase into the upper 70s and low 80s Thursday and the low/mid 80s Friday. Our next real shot at rain returns Saturday. High pressure makes an exit, with southerly flow bringing in a warmer and more moist airmass. The GFS brings in a trough that will leave us with some scattered showers and storms. The ECMWF, meanwhile, tracks a surface low NE through the eastern Great Lakes and into Canada, with more widespread rain. This seems a bit overzealous, so went more with the GFS solution of lower chances for rain and thunder and slightly higher afternoon temperatures. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions all terminals until at least 21z as cumulus clouds boil up in the growing mixed layer up to 6000 feet AGL or so. This will occur under a veil of mainly cirrus flowing southeast over all terminals. Confidence is low to medium on the extent and coverage of expected thunderstorms and whether MVFR conditions will develop temporarily between 21z and 00z in our NY terminals and between 00z and 03z at KAVP. confidence is lower at KAVP since storms would reach this terminal later. The TCF plot suggests convection mainly developing in NY between 21z and 01z. Our terminals are in close agreement with the TCF. Have Tempo groups in all terminals with MVFR conditions. Once the convection wanes there is even more uncertainty as to how widespread showers are behind the main convection and if we see MVFR conditions. For now went with the consensus of the short range model guidance which does have a period of MVFR and showers at KITH between 01z and 05z and at KBGM around 06z-12z or so. From 12z to 15z, we have medium confidence most terminals will be VFR and have high confidence of VFR after 15z Sunday. Winds will be westerly 5-10 knots this afternoon with gusts around 15 knots or so and then light and variable after 00z this evening. Outlook... Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, but still a small chance for primarily daytime showers and thunderstorms. Monday night through Tuesday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...HLC/MWG NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...HLC/MWG AVIATION...DJN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 344 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 NYZ025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-151945- Tompkins-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan- Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike- Southern Wayne- 344 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to pass through the region, especially late this afternoon through evening. A few of those storms could contain strong damaging wind gusts as well as locally heavy rainfall. Poor drainage areas such as urban centers, as well as locations that happen to receive multiple rounds of rainfall, could experience localized flooding issues especially later this evening and overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday may produce locally heavy rainfall leading to poor drainage flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NYZ009-015>018-022>024-036-037-151945- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Madison-Southern Oneida- 344 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to pass through the region, especially late this afternoon through evening. A few of those storms could contain strong damaging wind gusts as well as locally heavy rainfall. Poor drainage areas such as urban centers, as well as locations that happen to receive multiple rounds of rainfall, could experience localized flooding issues especially later this evening and overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Maximum heat index values Monday afternoon are expected to be around 95 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday may produce locally heavy rainfall leading to poor drainage flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
521 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018
NYZ055-056-142200-
Tioga NY-Broome NY-
521 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN BROOME AND
SOUTHEASTERN TIOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
At 521 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Apalachin, or near Owego, moving east at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Binghamton, Vestal, Johnson City, Endicott, Port Dickinson, Vestal
Center, Apalachin, Endwell, Tioga Terrace and West Corners.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Binghamton.
&&
LAT...LON 4200 7600 4205 7623 4214 7622 4215 7589
4200 7592
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 275DEG 15KT 4209 7618
MWGSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
526 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018
NYZ046-142200-
Otsego NY-
526 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...CENTRAL OTSEGO COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM EDT...
At 526 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hartwick, or 7 miles southwest of Cooperstown, moving east at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Worcester, Middlefield, Hartwick, Maryland, Cooperstown, Westville,
New Lisbon, Westford, Milford and Bowerstown.
LAT...LON 4253 7470 4252 7472 4250 7477 4251 7484
4248 7492 4259 7520 4275 7511 4266 7463
4263 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 291DEG 21KT 4265 7506
DJNSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
538 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018
NYZ022-142215-
Steuben NY-
538 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN STEUBEN COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...
At 538 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hartsville, or near Hornell, moving east at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Hornell, Canisteo, Jasper, Cameron, Arkport, North Hornell,
Hartsville, Almond, West Cameron and Cameron Mills.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4221 7774 4233 7774 4241 7770 4230 7727
4205 7745 4218 7775
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 286DEG 17KT 4223 7766
DJNSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
539 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018
NYZ022-024-PAZ038-142245-
Steuben NY-Chemung NY-Bradford PA-
539 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHERN CHEMUNG...SOUTHEASTERN
STEUBEN AND NORTHWESTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...
At 539 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Corning, or near Corning, moving east at 25 mph.
Half inch hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Elmira, Corning, Southport, Big Flats, Caton, Ridgebury, Painted
Post, South Corning, Wellsburg and West Elmira.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Binghamton.
&&
LAT...LON 4216 7710 4207 7662 4187 7678 4195 7692
4200 7693 4200 7702 4207 7715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 288DEG 22KT 4209 7705
MWGThe Albany radar (KENX), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:57 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong thunderstorm winds knocked down trees and wires.
Strong thunderstorm winds knocked down trees and wires.
Strong thunderstorm winds knocked down trees and wires.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 776136, 776137, 776138.