The region was in a moist southwest flow with a weak ridge across the southeastern states and an shortwave digging into eastern Michigan. 78 inches but very limited wind shear with 15 kts at 850mb and 20 kts at 700 mb.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
The region was in a moist southwest flow with a weak ridge across the southeastern states and an shortwave digging into eastern Michigan. The 12z BUF sounding had a precipitable water value of 1.78 inches but very limited wind shear with 15 kts at 850mb and 20 kts at 700 mb. Despite this limited shear, an impressive storm developed across lake Erie around 7 AM and slowly tracked across the Buffalo metro area around 9 AM. The same storm moved eastward toward Victor, producing mainly heavy rainfall with radar estimates near 2 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 8, 7:57 AM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 857 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the eastern Great Lakes as a mid level trough axis approaches the region today. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe and produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Another cold front will track across the region Thursday night and the chance for showers and thunderstorms continues. Temperatures through the rest of the work week will remain near to slightly above normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A warm and humid airmass persists across Western and North Central NY this morning with the 12z KBUF RAOB showing PWat of 1.78 inches which is higher than the 90 percentile for this time of year. A warm front will continue to track northward across Western NY this morning forcing showers and embedded thunderstorms. One dominate storm is moving off the east end of Lake Erie near 830am which has shown some embedded stronger winds and periods of rotation. This storm will move across Erie county through the morning rush. Further north more stratiform rain is moving across Niagara County and further south scattered showers are shifting across the western Southern Tier. The warm front extends back to eastern Michigan where the associated surface low is located. This surface low, will track across Southern Ontario Province this morning and reach Lake Ontario by this afternoon. This system will lead to a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Moisture and clouds will increase from southwest to northeast as the surface low and warm front tracks northward today. Dewpoints will stay elevated in the upper 60s/low 70s through the afternoon with PWATS 2-3 SD above normal are expected across the eastern Great Lakes. This has resulted in tall, skinny CAPE profiles as the surface low tracks into Lake Ontario. Clouds will play a factor in destabilization for afternoon storms however breaks in the clouds are likely behind the warm front resulting in forecast instability increasing to 1000-2000 J/Kg across Western NY by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will track across Western NY late morning through the afternoon. As is often the case, the lake shadows will likely be developing by late morning which will diminish the threat for strong storms along lake shores. This evolution combined with a marginal wind field will make it possible for isolated thunderstorms to become strong to severe by early afternoon. Best chance from damaging winds will be inland areas from the Southern Tier to the Western Finger Lakes. All thunderstorms will produce very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time due to the high moisture content in the atmosphere. Across the North Country, the morning will remain quiet as the surface low remains to the west. Showers and thunderstorms will move northward as the warm front lifts into the region this afternoon. As the surface low tracks across Lake Ontario and into the Saint Lawrence Valley by evening, showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the evening hours as a cold front moves across the North Country. The cold front will extend southwestward and also track across Western NY overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are possible however due to lack of diurnal , activity should be isolated to scattered and sub-severe. Winds pick up slightly as the front moves south however they become light into Thursday morning. Patchy fog is likely during this time. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s today and lows in the 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... On Thursday a mid level trough will move across Quebec and the eastern Great Lakes, reaching western New England by late in the day. At the surface, an initial weak frontal trough will be exiting into central and eastern NY at daybreak Thursday. Any remaining showers and isolated thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario associated with this trough will end in the morning, leaving an interlude of mainly dry weather for much of the day. By late afternoon or early evening the next weak low level frontal segment will approach Lakes Erie and Ontario. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across southern Ontario in the afternoon along and ahead of this front, and a few of these will drift into our region by Thursday evening. Highs Thursday will reach the low to mid 80s on the lake plains, and upper 70s on the hills. Thursday night the weak surface cold front will push south across our region. The mid level trough will exit east across New England, leaving little in the way of upper level support along the trailing cold front. The lakes may have an opportunity to add moisture and instability as the front sags slowly south overnight, with nocturnal convection possible over both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Boundary layer flow becoming north would force this onshore along the south shores of both lakes if it does materialize. Lows will be in the mid 60s on the lake plains and upper 50s in the coolest Southern Tier valleys and Lewis County. Friday morning any lingering scattered showers and thunder along the south shores of both lakes will taper off with diurnal warming, flipping the lakes from unstable to stable in a relative sense to the surrounding landmass. Lingering low level moisture and weak northerly upslope flow may support a few more widely scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms through the midday and afternoon across the higher terrain south of the NYS Thruway. The lake plains and North Country will likely dry out during the afternoon as a bubble of drier air advects into the area from Ontario. Highs will reach the lower 80s on the lake plains, and mid to upper 70s across higher terrain. Friday night a few showers may linger near the PA state line, otherwise the rest of the area will be mainly dry as the aforementioned bubble of drier air spreads southward out of Ontario. The slightly drier airmass will allow lows to drop into the lower 60s on the lake plains, and mid to upper 50s for the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Model guidance is beginning to settle on a common solution for this weekend into early next week, providing a little more clarity to the timing of best rain chances. Both the GFS and ECMWF have trended drier over the past few runs for the weekend. A mid level trough will slowly sharpen and dig southward through the Great Lakes, evolving into a mid level closed low by Sunday across the Ohio Valley. The deeper low level moisture and frontal forcing will initially stall from the Mid Atlantic to southern New England Saturday and Sunday, where the most widespread rain will be found. Across our region, a few widely scattered showers and storms are possible Saturday afternoon across the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes, progressing a little farther north and west by Sunday. Despite the shower chances, each day should have plenty of rain free time. By early next week the deep Atlantic moisture will circulate north and west around the Ohio Valley closed low, bringing increasing rain chances to our region for Monday and Tuesday. The pattern suggests some heavy rain potential during this period given the deep, persistent feed of Atlantic moisture into our region, especially if a well defined surface low rotates northward out of the Mid Atlantic as shown in the 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs. Temperatures will run a little above average for the weekend, with low to perhaps mid 80s on the lake plains. More widespread clouds and showers will then bring temperatures down a little by early next week. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will move northward along a warm front this morning. Main impacts will be at KBUF/KIAG/KJHW with IFR in heavy rain and perhaps some gusty winds. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon along the warm front and in its wake with destabilization. The main impact with these showers and thunderstorms will be the very heavy rainfall which will reduce vsbys. An isolated thunderstorm may produce strong gusty winds as well. A cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Winds will slightly increase however will remain light after the frontal passage. Patchy fog is expected and may impact the terminals tonight. Outlook... Thursday...VFR with chances for afternoon showers and storms. Friday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds remain light with negligible waves across the Lower Great Lakes this morning outside of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Mariners should be alert for Special Marine Warnings issued for strong thunderstorms. Winds and waves will increase a bit on Lake Erie as southwest flow increases ahead of a cold front however they remain under Small Craft Advisory thresholds. A cold front will cross the lakes tonight and remain light with negligible waves into Thursday. Another cold front will cross the lakes Thursday night with weak high pressure then influencing the Great Lakes region this weekend although there will still be chances for showers and storms. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...HSK/Smith SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...HSK/Smith MARINE...HSK/Smith
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 501 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-090915- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 501 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected from this morning through this evening. Some of these storms will contain torrential rainfall, which may produce localized flooding. There is also a Marginal Risk of a few isolated severe thunderstorms, with the primary risk being damaging winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-090915- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 501 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected from this morning through this evening. A few of these storms may produce locally higher winds and waves. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Hitchcock
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 436 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2018 NYZ019-020-080915- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- 436 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2018 ...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES... At 435 AM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Jamestown to 6 miles northeast of Salamanca. Movement was northeast at 25 mph. These storms are producing very heavy rainfall, with some areas likely to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rain in a short period of time. This will result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas and rises on small streams. Locations impacted include... Jamestown, Salamanca, Lakewood, Falconer, Ashford, Jamestown West, Frewsburg, Busti, Great Valley and Randolph. This includes Interstate 86 between exits 11 and 16, and near exit 20. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. LAT...LON 4212 7939 4235 7859 4220 7853 4200 7933 TIME...MOT...LOC 0835Z 244DEG 21KT 4208 7927 4222 7863 Hitchcock
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 711 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 NYZ001-010-081215- Niagara-Northern Erie- Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Buffalo 711 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING THE BUFFALO METRO AND AREAS NORTH THIS MORNING... A strong thunderstorm with strong gusty winds and torrential downpours is approaching the Buffalo metro and areas north to Niagara Falls. This will bring very heavy rainfall between 8 and 9 a.m. as it moves across the area. This storm also may produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and may become severe. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. This storm will impact the latter portion of the morning commute across the Buffalo northtowns so plan accordingly. Apffel
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 27 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:13 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Several large tree limbs were reported down with minor property damage.
The Sheriff reported trees down in Farmington.
Spotter reported 2.30 inches of rain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 781519, 782267, 782272.