Drought in New Mexico, March 1 to 31, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1024 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Winds will veer to the south Thursday and get gusty during
the afternoon hours.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...407 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2018...
.UPDATE...
weakening as it moves eastward. Snow showers over west central NM
have diminished, and temperatures have increased to above freezing
across all of the area, except the highest elevations. The winter
weather advisory for these areas has been canceled.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...239 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
As a weak upper low moves east of New Mexico this evening, light
snow showers will persist across the northern mountains and light
rain and snow showers will fall in portions of south central New
Mexico. Skies will clear out rapidly late tonight, allowing low
temperatures to fall below normal by Thursday morning. Surface high
pressure will move across New Mexico Thursday, producing a sunny and
seasonably cool day. Southwest flow aloft Friday and Saturday will
bring dry weather and a warming trend to the area. Highs Saturday
will be generally 5 to 15 degrees above normal. A fast moving low
pressure system will cross northern New Mexico Sunday with light
rain and snow in northwest New Mexico. A Pacific cold front will
move across the state Sunday, bringing cooler weather to western New
Mexico. Cooler surface high pressure will settle across New mexico
Monday and Tuesday with dry weather and temperatures slightly below
normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper low in far southwest NM early this afternoon will become an
open wave this afternoon as it moves into central NM. A Pacific cold
front to the east of the upper low has already moves into central Nm
early this afternoon and will continue to move quickly eastward
across eastern NM late this afternoon. A band of stronger winds
aloft across south central and southeast NM is mixing to the surface
with west winds near 25 knots at times. The wind advisory for these
areas will continue until 01Z early this evening, and a wind shift
to the west northwest will occur behind the cold front this
afternoon. Scattered snow showers in west central and southwest NM in
the vicinity of the upper low this afternoon will diminish this
afternoon and a few locations could see another inch with icy roads
primarily occurring at higher elevations. The winter weather
advisory for these areas will continue until 00Z. The upper level
trough will exit NM this evening, and clearing skies and colder than
normal temperatures are expected overnight.

A shortwave ridge aloft will cross NM Thursday, while surface high
pressure weakens and moves to the east by Thursday afternoon. Despite
abundant sunshine Thursday, cooler air will slowly retreat to the
east. High temperatures Thursday will be near to slightly below
normal. A deep upper level low will move slowly southward along the
Pacific Northwest coast Friday and Saturday. To the south of the
large cyclonic circulation around the upper low, winds aloft will
back to the southwest Friday and Saturday across the Southwest U.S.
This flow aloft will bring very dry air from the eastern Pacific
across NM both days with warmer air moving across the region. Highs
Friday will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal across NM. A
strengthening lee surface trough in eastern CO Saturday will generate
breezy southwest winds across the eastern plains Saturday afternoon.
These downsloping winds will enhance warming across the eastern
plains Saturday, and high temperatures will be 8 to 16 degrees above
normal, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70s. High temperatures across
central and western NM Saturday will be 5 to 12 degrees above normal.

A fast-moving trough will race eastward across northern NM/southern
CO Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement Sunday in showing
light precipitation amounts across portions of northwest NM Sunday
with precipitation ending by Sunday evening. The more potent weather
feature Sunday will be a strong Pacific cold front. The front will
bring below normal temperatures to western NM Sunday. Breezy west
winds are expected along and behind the front in western and central
NM Sunday with breezy to windy west southwest winds to west winds in
the eastern plains. West to northwest flow aloft will follow the
departing upper level trough on Monday and Tuesday. This flow aloft
will produce dry weather and keep temperatures near to below normal.
Weak ridging aloft Wednesday will extend the stretch of dry weather
and allow temperatures to rebound to above normal.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

Upper level storm system crossing New Mexico from west to east this
afternoon and evening with cooler temperatures, occasionally gusty
winds and scattered rain and snow showers, focused over the higher
terrain of the central and north, which should diminish by mid
evening. An isolated and very short lived thunderstorm could also
occur. Tonight will be colder with higher humidities for most areas.

Thursday will be a transition day, as temperatures start to rebound
within a few degrees of average. Humidities will trend drier west
and central with not much change east. Vent rates will be mostly
good to excellent with some areas of mostly fair rates north
central.

Southwest flow to strengthen Friday with high temperatures warming
to 5 to 10 degrees above average. Critical fire weather conditions
will be possible over the northeast Friday as minimum humidities
fall to below 15 percent and a fire weather watch is in effect for
the Northeast Highlands and Northeast Plains.

Winds strengthen further Saturday and Sunday as a large trough of
low pressure aloft digs into the Great Basin Saturday and tracks
over Colorado and northern New Mexico Sunday. There may be some
meager precipitation over the northwest and north central mountains
but the main message will be strong winds and potential for critical
fire weather conditions over portions of eastern and central New
Mexico both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Temperatures Sunday will
be cooler west and central but remain 5 to 10 degrees above average
over the east. Winds may relax a bit early to mid next week, but it
will remain dry. Mixing heights decrease next Monday and Tuesday,
enough for areas of fair to poor vent rates to be painted over the
west and central.

Last but not least, forecast models indicate some low level moisture
may be drawn up along the eastern NM/western TX border possibly as
far west as the Pecos Valley, Friday and Friday night. This helps
keep Friday daytime humidities from falling below 15 percent
generally south of Interstate 40 and east of the Pecos Valley. The
moisture likely won't be deep enough for any thunderstorms though
but depending how far west and north it gets, and how much it mixes
out in the afternoon, areal coverage of potential critical fire
weather conditions could change on Friday and into Saturday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103-104.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
428 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2018

NMZ501>540-011200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
428 AM MST Wed Feb 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A wind advisory is in effect for the Central Highlands and South Central
Mountains, as well as eastern Lincoln, Chaves and Roosevelt counties
from noon to 6 pm MST this afternoon. Southwest to west winds will
average 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

Snow showers over the western and central mountains will only produce
2 to 4 inches of snow in the southwest mountains, and 1 or 2 inches
in the other mountain locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Critical fire weather conditions return Friday and Saturday in the
northeast, and all of the east Sunday. The windiest day will be
Sunday when advisory level winds are likely over portions of central
and eastern New Mexico. High winds will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snow and strong winds through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

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