Flash Flood and Hail in New Mexico, June 13, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
251 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture has begun increasing over New Mexico today as evidenced by
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The area of high
pressure responsible for the recent heat over New Mexico will move
east and allow deeper moisture to surge northward into the state.
The coverage of showers and storms will continue increasing through
Thursday and Friday with the focus shifting into central and western
New Mexico. The remnants of Hurricane Bud will slide north across the
area Saturday with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall over
a large area of the state. Temperatures will be below normal with
all the clouds and moisture. Drier conditions are likely for central
and western New Mexico Sunday and Monday while the focus for storms
shifts into the eastern plains. Another potential big increase in
moisture is possible by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest forecast package unfortunately does not offer a whole lot
of improvement in confidence regarding the coverage of the heaviest
rainfall Saturday and Saturday night. The highest confidence for an
area of significant rainfall at this time is along and west of the
Cont Divide.

But first, low level southeasterly flow has forced moisture west to
the Rio Grande Valley today and storms have already fired up over
the higher terrain. The latest hi-res and near-term model guidance
continues to show a convective cluster over northeastern NM where
there is a marginal risk of severe storms. Any storms within central
and western NM will produce strong outflow winds and dry lightning.

The upper high center is still shown to shift eastward into a ridge
axis Thursday and Friday while the remnant circulation of Hurricane
Bud lifts northward along the Baja region. Guidance still shows a
western extension of the ridge axis over eastern New Mexico during
this period. Moisture will trend deeper each day along the western
periphery of the high with the focus of showers and storms along and
west of the central mountain chain. Any storms during this period
will have the potential to produce flash flooding on recent burn
scars since PW values will rise to near record levels.

The focus continues to be Saturday and Saturday night with regard to
nailing down the timing and coverage of the heaviest precipitation.
There is a lot of disagreement on the details from 12Z models on the
heaviest QPF. Nonetheless, it still appears the entire forecast area
will pick up wetting rainfall and PoPs are quite high for Saturday.
The 12Z GFS threw a wrench into confidence as it squeezes out the
bulk of the QPF over the Mogollon Rim and the northwest mountains of
NM. The NAM is also much faster with the remnant circulation and
focuses all the QPF west of the central mt chain Saturday with very
little coverage Saturday night. There are also indications an area
of heavy rainfall will move through the southeast plains Saturday
night. All in all, the biggest concern that will need watching is
burn scar flash flooding.

The second focus becomes the period beyond Sunday as drier air works
in from the west and remnant low level moisture lingers over the
area. At this time the most likely focus will be over eastern NM
Sunday and Monday while the west attempts to dry out and heats up
again. The next surge of moisture is on the horizon starting Tuesday
as a potent back door front surges southwest through the state.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Better low level moisture than expected pushed into central areas
with congealed TX thunderstorm outflows last night. As a result,
scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly
east of the continental divide this evening. Most of the scattered
activity will be along and east of the central mountain chain, where
most of the wetting precipitation is expected. There will be a mix
of wet and dry convection farther west this evening with erratic
wind gusts to 50 mph possible.

The center of anticyclonic circulation aloft will shift east of NM
by Thursday evening as an upper level trough deepens on the west
coast This will allow better moisture to flow northward into the
state each day through Saturday with increasing coverage of wetting
showers and thunderstorms. PWATs are forecast to vary around 0.75-1
inch Thursday and Friday, and temperatures will cool with all the
moisture in place, so wetting thunderstorms are expected. Some
storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall with a risk of
flash flooding in and below recent burn scars.

The remnants of former Hurricane Bud are forecast to move northward
along the AZ/NM border on Saturday, before ejecting northeastward
across CO on Saturday night. Though the heaviest rain is forecast
west of the Rio Grande to the AZ border (and especially along the
continental divide), areas of locally heavy rainfall may be found as
far east as the eastern plains. Potentially heavy wetting rains
could linger into Saturday night across northern and eastern areas.
Rain amounts during the latter half of the week should generally
vary around 0.75-1.25 inches across western areas, with amounts
ranging from 0.25-0.75 of an inch farther east, except around 0.10-
0.25 along NM's eastern border. Locally heavier amounts of a few
inches will be possible, especially in the southwest mountains. Most
of that precipitation should come Saturday, which will be a high
risk day for burn scar flash flooding.

In the wake of Bud's remnants, drier air will filter over the state
from the west with a significant downtick in convection Sunday and
again Monday (west of the central mountain chain). Recycled moisture
should allow mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms to redevelop
in the west Sunday, while better moisture lingers in the east with
scattered to isolated convection. On Monday, areas along and east of
the central mountain chain will be favored for scattered to isolated
storms as a low pressure system over the NW US begins to draw a
moist low level return flow into the state.

Beyond Monday models diverge on the position of the upper low over
the western US with the ECMWF and Canadian Models sinking it
southward over the Great Basin, and the operational GFS run shifting
it eastward over the northern Rockies. The GFS operational run is an
outlier compared to other models in the GFS ensemble, which tend to
favor an upper level low position more in alignment with the
Canadian and ECMWF. Thus, it looks like the moist southeasterly
return flow will probably continue Tuesday through the middle of the
coming work weak with the potential for record high PWATs and
widespread wetting rainfall. This all hinges on today's operational
run of the GFS being mistaken.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the
central mountain chain and adjacent east slope locations this
afternoon and evening, as well as the northeast plains. Isolated
cells will be possible as far west as the northwest mountains, west
central mountains and the southwest mountains. Some of this activity
will drift southeastward onto the east central plains tonight. Dry
and hybrid wet/dry microbursts are expected west of the central
mountain chain, and wetter microbursts along and east of the central
mountain chain, with erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt. A few cells
across the northeast could turn severe with large hail and wind gusts
to 50 kt. Convection will become more widespread each day through
the end of the week.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  93  59  89 /  10  10  20  10
Dulce...........................  52  87  51  86 /  10  10  30  20
Cuba............................  58  87  57  84 /  10  20  30  20
Gallup..........................  53  90  52  84 /   5  20  20  30
El Morro........................  55  84  54  79 /  10  30  30  40
Grants..........................  55  88  54  84 /  10  30  30  30
Quemado.........................  56  85  55  80 /  10  40  30  40
Glenwood........................  65  96  65  90 /  10  20  20  20
Chama...........................  46  81  45  80 /  10  20  20  20
Los Alamos......................  64  84  62  83 /  10  40  30  20
Pecos...........................  59  85  58  83 /  20  20  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  55  83  55  82 /  20  30  20  20
Red River.......................  48  73  48  72 /  20  30  30  30
Angel Fire......................  42  78  42  76 /  30  20  30  20
Taos............................  55  87  54  86 /  20  20  20  20
Mora............................  52  81  51  81 /  30  30  30  20
Espanola........................  62  91  60  89 /  10  20  20  10
Santa Fe........................  64  86  62  84 /  20  20  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  62  90  61  88 /  10  10  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  92  64  89 /  10  10  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  93  66  90 /  10  10  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  95  65  92 /  10  10  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  94  64  91 /  10  10  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  64  95  63  92 /  10  10  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  66  93  64  91 /  10  10  20  10
Socorro.........................  67  95  66  93 /  10  10  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  86  61  84 /  20  20  30  20
Tijeras.........................  61  88  60  86 /  10  10  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  90  56  88 /  20  20  20  20
Clines Corners..................  58  86  57  85 /  30  30  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  60  88  59  86 /  20  20  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  64  89  64  88 /  20  20  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  59  81  58  81 /  20  30  20  20
Capulin.........................  56  86  56  85 /  30  30  20  10
Raton...........................  54  89  54  89 /  30  20  20  10
Springer........................  54  90  55  90 /  30  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  55  85  54  85 /  20  30  30  10
Clayton.........................  62  91  62  91 /  30   5  20   0
Roy.............................  59  88  59  88 /  30  30  20   5
Conchas.........................  67  95  66  95 /  30  10  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  65  93  64  93 /  20  10  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  68  96  68  96 /  30   0  10   0
Clovis..........................  64  91  63  91 /  30   0   5   0
Portales........................  65  92  64  92 /  30   0   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  94  65  94 /  30   0  10   0
Roswell.........................  69  96  68  96 /  10   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  64  89  63  89 /  10  10  10   5
Elk.............................  60  85  60  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
259 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

NMZ501>540-141130-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
259 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over far northeast
New Mexico this afternoon and evening, where large hail and damaging
winds are possible. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible
from the southwest mountains northeast through Socorro County to the
central highlands and southern Sangre de Cristo mountains. Some of
these storms will be dry with gusty outflow winds and little
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Deep sub-tropical moisture from what is now Category 1 Hurricane Bud
will increase chances for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms
beginning Friday night and persisting through Saturday night. Main
hazards from numerous showers and thunderstorms will be frequent
lightning, strong and gusty winds, heavy downpours and flash
flooding. Recent burned areas, especially the Buzzard Fire and the
Bluewater/Diener Canyon scars will be especially susceptible to
flash floods and debris flows late Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
150 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

NMZ513-515-527-132015-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson
Mesa-Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
150 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TAOS AND
NORTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 149 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles east of Amalia, or 28 miles northeast of Questa, moving south
at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vermejo Park.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10502 3689 10491 3677 10522 3699 10530
      3700 10527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 340DEG 7KT 3695 10517

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
253 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

NMZ513-515-527-132130-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson
Mesa-Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
253 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TAOS AND NORTHWESTERN
COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 253 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northeast of Elizabethtown, or 25 miles east of Questa, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vermejo Park.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 10528 3693 10520 3689 10485 3667 10499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 289DEG 21KT 3682 10515

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             CAPULIN                 36.74N 103.99W
06/12/2018  M1.00 INCH       UNION              NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800691

TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
326 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

NMZ507-508-519-520-524-132200-
Southwest Mountains-West Central Highlands-South Central
Highlands-Lower Rio Grande Valley-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
326 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VALENCIA AND CENTRAL
SOCORRO COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

At 324 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms along the
Interstate 25 corridor extending from near Jarales to 14 miles
southwest of Bosque Del Apache Refuge. Movement was northeast at 20
mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Socorro, Belen, Veguita, San Acacia, Jarales, Lemitar, Casa Colorada,
Rio Communities, Bernardo and Bosque Del Apache Refuge.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 109 and 191.

Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibilities below one quarter mile at times.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 10661 3354 10677 3355 10718 3465 10704
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 246DEG 21KT 3459 10686 3362 10702

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
356 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

NMZ512-515-132215-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-West Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-
356 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TAOS...NORTHWESTERN
MORA AND SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 356 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chacon, or 16 miles north of Mora, moving east at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Coyote Creek State Park, Chacon, Black Lake, Guadalupita and El
Turquillo.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 10546 3632 10542 3635 10516 3605 10523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 274DEG 6KT 3622 10533

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
435 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

NMZ512-514-517-132300-
Lower Chama River Valley-West Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
435 PM MDT WED JUN 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TAOS...SOUTHEASTERN
RIO ARRIBA AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA FE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 434 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chimayo, moving east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Espanola, Chimayo, Cuartelez, Rio Chiquito, Sombrillo, La Puebla,
Cundiyo, Santa Cruz, Truchas and Velarde.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 10605 3615 10605 3625 10571 3593 10572
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 276DEG 9KT 3604 10594

Guyer