An upper level trough over the upper Midwest pushed a back door cold front through the region. The front combined with lingering moisture which was still in place and helped a severe thunderstorm develop which produced a wet microburst.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
An upper level trough over the upper Midwest pushed a back door cold front through the region. The front combined with lingering moisture which was still in place and helped a severe thunderstorm develop which produced a wet microburst.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 30, 1:19 PM MST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 219 PM MDT Mon Jul 30 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move east to west across New Mexico and west Texas today and tonight. Behind the front slightly cooler but more moist unstable air will flow into the region. As a result there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Borderland this afternoon and tonight all the way through next weekend. Heavy rainfalls...strong gusty winds and even hail may occur over a few locations each day. && .DISCUSSION... A weak cold front will move to the southwest through New Mexico and far west Texas late this afternoon and this evening. Large area of high pressure behind the front will combine with broad desert heat/thermal low west of the divide to induce initially low level east to southeast wind most of the CWA with inflow of moist air mass sustaining dewpoints into the 50s and even lower 60s. There will be periods where a secondary thermal trough extends into south central New Mexico resulting in enhanced low level convergence via westerly winds to the west and east to southeast winds to the east of the trough axis. However in either case moisture will flow into the CWA via Gulf of Mexico or Baja this week given the trajectories. Consequently expect precipitable water to stay elevated through next weekend with values mostly around 1.2 to 1.4 inches lower elevations occasionally reaching above 1.5 inches including tonight. The moisture, especially at lower levels, will keep air mass weakly to moderately unstable with afternoon and early evening CAPE's around 700 to 1400 J/kg each day. The lifting along the front plus inflow of abundant moisture and upslope winds along sloping terrain should generate generally scattered convection tonight with primary threat of heavy rains given precipitable water values around 1.5 inches tonight. However with CAPE's and DCAPE's both above 1000 for much of the CWA several storms may produce both damaging downdrafts and even hail. Strong upper high will be centered over southern Nevada Tuesday through Wednesday with associated ridge axis and weak large scale subsidence extending through New Mexico. This pattern will keep storms mostly isolated lower elevations Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon with scattered coverage higher mountains. However by Wednesday evening ridge axis will be south of the border allowing for a series of weak short wave/impulses aloft to drop southward into the CWA. Given the expected high amounts of water vapor plus instability this scenario will result in more widespread storm coverage Wednesday night through next weekend. Heavy rains will remain primary weather hazard but instability plus periods of 6 km wind speeds exceeding 30 kt may support several storms producing damaging winds and marginally severe hail. && .AVIATION...Valid 31/00Z-01/00Z... A backdoor cold front moves into the Rio Grande valley this evening in the 00Z-03Z timeframe. Expect thunderstorms to develop and increase into the evening with a forecast window of greatest area coverage and intensity from around 00Z-09Z. Conditions BKN040CB 100OVC VSBY 1-2 MI +TSRAGS WND VRB35G45KT. In general sky conds: SCT-BKN040- 080 BKN100-140 AND BKN200-250 with wind ENE10G20KT with G25-35KT w slopes/passes 03Z-15Z. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue in the overnight hours after midnight, with the main focus shifting into SW New Mexico in time. && .FIRE WEATHER... A backdoor cold front from the east will approach the Rio Grande by afternoon. Thus, there will be an increase in thunderstorm coverage today across the area, including the lower elevations. RH values are forecast to increase today and especially Tuesday, with the minimum RH values staying above 30 percent. Tuesday may see a slight decrease in thunderstorms depending on the previous night's activity, but overall expect a more active week ahead in terms of thunderstorm coverage, with excellent RH recovery and wetting rain coverage, especially in the higher terrain areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 92 73 96 / 40 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 69 87 67 94 / 40 30 20 10 Las Cruces 70 90 68 93 / 40 20 20 10 Alamogordo 70 87 68 93 / 40 30 20 20 Cloudcroft 50 66 51 71 / 50 50 40 40 Truth or Consequences 70 88 68 92 / 50 20 30 30 Silver City 63 82 63 86 / 50 40 40 30 Deming 70 90 68 94 / 50 20 20 20 Lordsburg 71 89 70 93 / 50 20 40 20 West El Paso Metro 73 91 72 95 / 40 20 20 10 Dell City 70 88 68 96 / 30 30 10 10 Fort Hancock 72 91 71 97 / 40 30 20 10 Loma Linda 67 86 65 92 / 40 30 20 20 Fabens 70 91 69 96 / 40 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 71 91 70 94 / 40 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 72 89 71 93 / 40 20 20 10 Jornada Range 69 89 67 94 / 40 20 20 10 Hatch 71 90 68 94 / 50 20 30 20 Columbus 73 91 71 95 / 50 10 20 10 Orogrande 71 89 69 94 / 40 30 20 10 Mayhill 56 72 57 79 / 50 50 30 50 Mescalero 56 75 57 80 / 50 50 30 40 Timberon 56 72 56 79 / 50 50 40 50 Winston 57 82 57 86 / 50 50 40 40 Hillsboro 65 86 64 88 / 50 40 30 40 Spaceport 69 88 66 92 / 40 20 30 20 Lake Roberts 56 81 54 84 / 50 60 50 40 Hurley 65 83 62 88 / 50 30 30 40 Cliff 62 88 61 92 / 50 40 40 30 Mule Creek 65 87 64 90 / 50 40 50 30 Faywood 67 84 65 89 / 50 30 30 30 Animas 70 88 69 94 / 60 20 40 10 Hachita 70 88 70 94 / 60 10 30 10 Antelope Wells 68 86 67 93 / 60 20 30 10 Cloverdale 65 84 65 89 / 60 30 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 05 Rogash/20 Novlan
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1100 AM MDT Mon Jul 30 2018 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-311745- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin- Southern Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County- Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1100 AM MDT Mon Jul 30 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Over 2 inches of rain may fall over a few locations resulting in flash flooding and possible road closures. Flooding is possible around the Soldier Canyon burn scar in northern Otero County. Isolated storms may also produce hail up to an inch in diameter and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Locally heavy rains may cause flash flooding over isolated areas. Several storms may produce small hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters may be required to report heavy rain and flooding...hail and damaging wind gusts. Rogash
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 340 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018 NMZ401-402-302230- Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range NM-Upper Gila River Valley NM- 340 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM MDT... At 340 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles east of Mangas Springs, or 7 miles northwest of Silver City, moving south at 5 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Mangas Valley, Silver City, Tyrone and Tyrone Mine. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3287 10846 3291 10835 3274 10820 3265 10844 TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 344DEG 6KT 3283 10839 DENNHARDT
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 507 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018 NMZ409-412-302345- Central Tularosa Basin NM-Sierra County Lakes NM- 507 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SIERRA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM MDT... At 507 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20 miles northwest of Northrup Landing, moving southwest at 15 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Sierra County. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 3332 10662 3321 10644 3298 10653 3310 10689 TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 035DEG 11KT 3321 10658 DENNHARDT
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 512 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018 NMZ404-407-310000- Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin NM- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley NM- 512 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GRANT AND WEST CENTRAL LUNA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT... At 510 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms 7 miles west of Gage, or 22 miles north of Hachita, moving southeast at 15 mph. These storms will affect Interstate 10 between Lordsburg and Deming. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 50 mph with blowing dust will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Gage. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3229 10837 3233 10811 3211 10787 3209 10840 TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 330DEG 11KT 3223 10821 DENNHARDT
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
545 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018
NMZ409-412-310030-
Central Tularosa Basin NM-Sierra County Lakes NM-
545 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SIERRA COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM MDT...
At 545 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of Spaceport America, or 17 miles northeast of Upham,
moving southwest at 10 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Sierra
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3306 10659 3293 10663 3287 10677 3296 10697
3312 10676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 026DEG 7KT 3302 10674
DENNHARDTSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX 614 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018 NMZ410-412-310100- Central Tularosa Basin NM-Northern Dona Ana County NM- 614 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DONA ANA COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM MDT... At 612 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles southwest of Northrup Landing, moving south at 15 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. In addition, heavy to very heavy rain could cause flooding of arroyos and low water crossings across extreme northeast Dona Ana county with this storm. Locations impacted include... Lake Lucero, Northrup Landing and Portions of Jornada Experimental Range. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also likely with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 3291 10665 3302 10639 3269 10639 3267 10669 TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 338DEG 13KT 3286 10648 BIRD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
620 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0547 PM FLASH FLOOD 14 ESE LORDSBURG 32.27N 108.48W
07/30/2018 GRANT NM DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
I-10 AT MILE POST 36, EAST OF LORDSBURG, WATER IS
RUNNING ACROSS INTERSTATE ALONG DIPS AND WITH BEBRIS DUE
TO RAIN AND FLOODING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER EPZ1800067
EDThe Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:19 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A peak gust of 72 mph was recorded with a wet microburst north of the White Sands Missile Range.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 773615.