There was an upper ridge over the region, and a north-south oriented surface trough was along the Texas-New Mexico border. Intense heating, upslope winds along the higher terrain, and good low to mid-level moisture contributed to thunderstorms developing in the Guadalupe Mountains and spreading to the surrounding plains.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
There was an upper ridge over the region, and a north-south oriented surface trough was along the Texas-New Mexico border. Intense heating, upslope winds along the higher terrain, and good low to mid-level moisture contributed to thunderstorms developing in the Guadalupe Mountains and spreading to the surrounding plains. These storms resulted in flash flooding across parts of Lea County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 25, 3:49 PM MST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 549 PM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018 .DISCUSSION... See 00z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are expected to impact CNM and HOB this evening and may impact PEQ and INK. Winds will generally be out of the south to southeast through the period with some elevated winds, especially at MAF and FST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018/ DISCUSSION... A north-south oriented surface trough will persist through the next few days along the Texas-New Mexico border. Expect diurnal convection over the mountains and along this trough through at least Monday, with lesser chances expected Sunday as an upper- level high briefly builds over the southern High Plains. High temperatures should increase slightly, with triple-digit temps forecast along the Rio Grande as well as over the Delaware Basin. Overnight lows will also remain at or a bit above seasonal norms. Speaking of overnight low temperatures, this morning's low at Midland Air and Space Port was 76 degrees. Should the temperature remain above 76 degrees through midnight tonight, we will have set a new record warm low temperature for the 25th, beating the old record of 74 degrees set in 2011. An upper level short wave trough in the westerlies will progress eastward early next week from the Pacific Northwest across the central Plains states. Surface anticyclogenesis (albeit weak) over the central Plains associated with this short wave trough will send a cold front southward by Tuesday night, reaching eastern New Mexico eastward across the Texas Panhandle/South Plains by Wed- nesday morning. Right now, we're not bullish on bringing this front south into the northern reaches of the MAF county warning area unless it is augmented by thunderstorm outflow north of the boundary. For now, we've added some PoPs across southeastern New Mexico and the northeastern Permian Basin for Tuesday and Tuesday night while lowering the chance of precipitation for Wednesday. Should this front sag southward further than forecast, then PoPs would necessarily change. Thereafter, the subtropical high will assert itself over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, with temperatures expected to be at or above normal and precipitation chances forecast to be slim to none, even over the mountains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 97 75 99 / 10 10 0 10 Carlsbad 73 98 72 100 / 20 20 10 10 Dryden 75 98 75 102 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 98 74 98 / 10 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 69 88 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 Hobbs 69 95 70 95 / 20 10 10 10 Marfa 62 90 61 91 / 20 20 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 76 97 76 99 / 10 10 0 10 Odessa 75 97 75 99 / 10 10 0 10 Wink 74 99 75 101 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 99/99/
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-261945- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos- Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan- Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau- Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains- 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018 /136 PM MDT Sat Aug 25 2018/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Stronger storms will be accompanied by frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... http://weather.gov/midland
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:56 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain moved across Lea County and produced flash flooding in Hobbs. Water was up to three feet at the intersection of Bender and Dal Paso Streets in Hobbs. Some roads were barricaded and cars were stranded. The cost of damage is a very rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 773256.