Hail in New Mexico, August 11, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
252 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air moving across northern New Mexico is leading to a downtick in
storms there today, but plenty of moisture remains across the
southern half where storms got an early start and are capable of
producing locally heavy downpours. Look for more of the same Sunday,
although with an uptick in storm coverage across northern New Mexico.
High pressure will strengthen over the state early to mid week, with
high temperature trending back to slightly above normal by Tuesday or
Wednesday. Look for a resurgence of storms late next week as high
pressure moves out of the state and allows moisture to trend up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today's crop of storms got off to an early start thanks to a higher
PWAT atmosphere across southern New Mexico and disorganized low
pressure aloft stretching from southeast Arizona east into Oklahoma.
The lack of storms across northern New Mexico is due to dry air
rotating southwest across the upper high circulation. Locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat across south central and
southeast New Mexico through the afternoon and into the early evening
hours prior to the loss of daytime heating. The disorganized area of
low pressure aloft will tighten into an upper low over the Texas
panhandle and the eastern plains of New Mexico overnight into Sunday.
Look for an uptick in storms across northern portions of the state
Sunday afternoon/evening, as PWATs trend up some. Otherwise, Sunday
should be similar to today.

The story for early to mid next week involves the upper low pulling
northeast away from the state as the upper high slides south over
Arizona, then east over New Mexico by Wednesday. This will cause
temperatures to trend back up to above normal by a degree or two most
areas by Tuesday or Wednesday. PWATs are forecast to trend up from
mid to late week as high pressure loses it's grip on the state and a
new high center builds over CA/NV. Look for an uptick in storms next
Thu/Fri, with a downtrend in daytime temperatures thanks to the added
cloud cover and rain-cooling.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather conditions anticipated for the next 7 days.
Overnight humidity recoveries will be generally good to excellent.
Some areas of poor vent rates forecast over central New Mexico
Sunday and again Tuesday with poor rates becoming more widespread
mid to late next week.

Cell motion through Sunday most likely from the northeast and east
to the southwest and west as a weak upper low pressure system
wobbles around eastern New Mexico/West Texas and the upper high
center lingers over the Great Basin. Areas south of Interstate 40
are favored for wetting convection for the rest of this afternoon
and tonight, while Sunday appears to be most active across the
northwest third to half of the forecast area. Locally heavy rain is
possible. High temperatures will remain mostly below average.

The weak upper low is forecast to lift to the northeast of New
Mexico Monday as the upper high center drifts back over Arizona and
New Mexico. High temperatures will warm a few degrees early to mid
next week, but don't stray too far from normal. Cell motion Monday
looks to be more north to south. The higher terrain may be favored
for wetting storms early to mid week, with storms drifting into the
valleys in the late afternoons and evenings.

Late next week the upper high center reestablishes over Utah and
Nevada, leaving eastern New Mexico vulnerable to occasional fronts
from the north. Thunderstorms should be most active over the central
and east under this regime. Temperatures will be within a few
degrees of average.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and tstms developing along the central mt chain and east
central/southeast plains at 17Z. Movement should be generally from
northeast or east to southwest and west. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys
along with wind gusts to 40kt in the stronger storms. Models
indicate convection will be most numerous south of Interstate 40
through 03Z but a few showers or storms may drift into nw NM aft 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  90  58  92 /  10  20  30  10
Dulce...........................  48  85  48  86 /  20  30  30  30
Cuba............................  51  81  52  85 /  20  40  40  30
Gallup..........................  50  87  52  88 /  10  20  30  20
El Morro........................  48  80  50  82 /  10  20  40  30
Grants..........................  51  84  53  86 /  10  20  30  20
Quemado.........................  51  80  53  82 /  20  20  30  20
Glenwood........................  60  85  61  86 /  20  30  20  40
Chama...........................  44  78  44  79 /  20  40  40  50
Los Alamos......................  54  79  55  81 /  20  20  20  30
Pecos...........................  52  76  52  80 /  20  40  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  46  78  47  80 /  10  40  20  30
Red River.......................  40  67  43  68 /  10  40  30  40
Angel Fire......................  37  73  39  74 /   5  40  20  50
Taos............................  46  81  47  84 /  10  20  20  20
Mora............................  47  76  48  78 /  10  30  20  40
Espanola........................  53  85  55  87 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Fe........................  55  78  55  81 /  20  30  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  53  82  54  85 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  84  60  87 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  85  63  89 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  88  60  91 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  87  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  59  88  60  91 /  20  10  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  60  87  60  90 /  20  10  20  20
Socorro.........................  61  88  61  91 /  20  10  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  79  54  82 /  20  20  20  30
Tijeras.........................  54  81  55  85 /  20  20  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  82  53  86 /  20  10  20  20
Clines Corners..................  54  78  54  82 /  20  10  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  55  81  54  84 /  20  10  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  59  81  59  84 /  20  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  51  71  52  76 /  30  30  20  20
Capulin.........................  50  79  51  80 /   0  10   5  20
Raton...........................  49  83  50  85 /   0  10   5  10
Springer........................  50  84  51  85 /   0  10   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  50  77  51  79 /  10  10  10  30
Clayton.........................  56  84  57  85 /  10  10  10  10
Roy.............................  55  81  55  83 /   5  10   5  20
Conchas.........................  59  89  60  91 /  10  10   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  59  85  59  89 /  20  10   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  61  89  62  91 /  10  20  10  10
Clovis..........................  61  82  60  85 /  20  20  20  10
Portales........................  61  83  60  87 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  63  86  64  89 /  20  20   5  10
Roswell.........................  64  85  65  90 /  30  20  10  10
Picacho.........................  60  78  59  84 /  40  20  10  20
Elk.............................  56  73  56  79 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
356 AM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018

NMZ501>540-121100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
356 AM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will trend downward in coverage today, except across
the southeast where there may be more storms. Some storms will be
capable of locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The risk of locally heavy rainfall will persist. A significant uptick
in thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity will be possible
during the latter half of the week as the subtropical high pressure
system shifts to the southeast of New Mexico, and a slow moving
disturbance embedded in the periphery of the ridge crosses western
and northern areas from the southwest. Wet microbursts will be
possible with a risk of damaging winds as the disturbance crosses.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1158 AM MDT SAT AUG 11 2018

NMZ534>537-111845-
Roosevelt County-Curry County-Quay County-De Baca County-
1158 AM MDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT...EAST
CENTRAL DE BACA...SOUTH CENTRAL QUAY AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES
UNTIL 1245 PM MDT...

At 1158 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Saint Vrain, or 20 miles northwest of Clovis, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clovis, Melrose, Tolar, Ranchvale and Taiban.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 10330 3451 10317 3428 10406 3459 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 064DEG 12KT 3454 10353

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1250 PM MDT SAT AUG 11 2018

NMZ535>538-111915-
Roosevelt County-Curry County-Chaves County Plains-De Baca County-
1250 PM MDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTH
CENTRAL CHAVES...SOUTHEASTERN DE BACA AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES
UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

At 1249 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
south of Melrose, moving south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clovis, Fort Sumner, Melrose, Floyd, Saint Vrain, Cannon Air Force
Base, Ranchvale, Elkins and Portair.

Localized gusty winds to 55 mph are possible in the vicinity of these
funnel clouds. Localized damage to lightweight structures such as
outbuildings, carports and patio covers, as well as tree branches and
street signs, is possible.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 10316 3446 10316 3365 10410 3398 10436
      3446 10425 3452 10405 3432 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 016DEG 13KT 3430 10368

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
443 PM MDT SAT AUG 11 2018

NMZ519-112315-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
443 PM MDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VALENCIA AND
BERNALILLO COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 442 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southeastern Albuquerque, moving west at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albuquerque, Bosque Farms, South Valley and Isleta Pueblo.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 145 and 154.
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 208 and 224.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 10653 3484 10659 3491 10694 3516 10682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 111DEG 14KT 3496 10664

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
518 PM MDT SAT AUG 11 2018

NMZ519-521-522-112345-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro
Area-Estancia Valley-
518 PM MDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VALENCIA...
SOUTHWESTERN SANTA FE...BERNALILLO AND NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 517 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sedillo, or 14 miles west of Moriarty, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Albuquerque, Edgewood, Tijeras, Cedar Crest, Escabosa,
Sedillo, Cedro, Ponderosa Pines, Carnuel and Miera.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 166 and 189.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 10620 3510 10610 3477 10641 3504 10664
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 044DEG 17KT 3507 10628

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