A combination of an approaching low pressure system and daytime heating aided in the generation of scattered showers and thunderstorms in eastern Kentucky. Evacuations were required at the Carter County Fair due to flash flooding with other areas in the county also experiencing flooding issues.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.
A combination of an approaching low pressure system and daytime heating aided in the generation of scattered showers and thunderstorms in eastern Kentucky. Evacuations were required at the Carter County Fair due to flash flooding with other areas in the county also experiencing flooding issues. Some storms reached severe intensities and caused trees to blow down in other parts of the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 11, 10:19 AM EST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1119 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A deep closed low pressure system approaches from the north today and lingers overhead through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1125 AM Saturday... Adjusted PoPs per latest models run, radar imagery and sfc obs indicating light to moderate showers across northern portions of southeast OH, moving east across PKB. Eventually, this activity will reach CKB and EKN. Another batch of showers and storms will move over central southeast OH, across the OH River and portions of WV. Kept low chance PoPs elsewhere per diurnal heating and abundant low level moisture. As of 556 AM Saturday... Have expanded mention of fog, locally dense, across the southern coal fields for early this morning. Cloud cover has thinned enough to allow areas of fog to develop. Fog should quickly mix out within a couple of hours after sunrise. As of 334 AM Saturday... Precip chances continue to be the primary forecast challenge for the Near Term period. Water Vapor imagery early this morning indicates a short wave trough pushing east across WV with precip associated with this disturbance being confined to the south and eastern portions of the CWA. This disturbance is prog to shift east today resulting in a period of negative vorticity advection and some dry slotting aloft this morning, which should keep most areas dry for the much of the first half of the day. Another disturbance is prog to advect toward the area by late in the day with a minor jet streak at H25 also skirting across the region. Combination of these factors, and diurnal warming/instability, should lead to renewed development of scattered showers and thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon. Greatest chances/coverage currently look to be across SE OH and western/northern portions of WV where the best dynamical forcing will exist and where a weak surface boundary may be draped. Storms may continue into the evening hours before loss of daytime heating allows and overall downward trend in convective occurrence. Storm movement today is not expected to be overly fast, which means any storms that occur will have the potential to drop some locally high amounts. Isolated flooding can not be ruled out across the area this afternoon/evening across the entire area. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 410 AM Sunday... The upper level low drifts overhead Sunday night into Monday, which should shift the main axis of lift into the mountains and point east. Temperatures will run a few degrees below normal for highs, with overnight lows seasonal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 AM Saturday... The upper level pushes east of the area by Wednesday, as the blocking pattern breaks down and the ridge off the East Coast gets suppressed. This will allow for some brief drying to work in Wednesday as s/w ridging builds across the area. This is short lived as an upstream disturbance closes in Wednesday night and Thursday, followed by yet another s/w trof Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 627 AM Saturday... Visibilities keep bouncing around between LIFR and MVFR this morning as areas of stratus also try to drift by at times. A brief period of poor flight rules will be possible for the first hour of two of the TAF period, with a quick transition to VFR then occurring by mid morning. Cu field to develop during the day with scattered convection developing by midday/afternoon. Best chances of convection will occur first from KHTS to KPKB to KCKB by late morning and continue through mid/late afternoon. Elsewhere, chances should hold off until the afternoon/early evening hours. IFR conditions possible within heaviest convection. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility fluctuations possible through mid morning. Onset of convection on Saturday may be slower than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in scattered storms Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && SYNOPSIS...RH/30 NEAR TERM...RH/ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston WV 433 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018 KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-120845- Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington- Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne- Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha- Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton- Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour- Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette- Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas- Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas- Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph- 433 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will exist again today, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding issues. Widespread flooding, however, is not currently expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. Near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will exist. While the probability of widespread hazardous weather is low, a few storms may briefly produce moderate to heavy rainfall at times. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:40 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong winds blew a few limbs down along Raikes Mill Road.
An abundant amount of rain fell over Carter County causing high water along Highway 1 in Hitchins. In Grayson, parts of the town were evacuated due to flooding. More than 20 apartments were evacuated due to high water with some of the bottom floor units having water inside them. The Carter County fairgrounds were also evacuated as Barrett Creek flooded. The events on the final day of the fair were cancelled.
A tree was blown down along Austin Branch Road in Fallsburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 767283, 767280, 767285.