Wildfire in Nevada, September 30, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
147 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler on Sunday with lighter winds, though still gusty
across east central Nevada. Warm and dry on Monday, with showers looking
increasingly likely Monday night into Tuesday for at least central and
northeastern Nevada. Moisture may expand into northern Nevada on Wednesday.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Rosa may produce locally moderate to
heavy rain mid week in central Nevada.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.

Sunday morning a closed low sits under a closed high extending
from offshore California into central Alaska. Hurricane Rosa is
off the central Baja coast. As the Pacific low rotates into the
west coast and the eastern US death ridge flattens a bit, the
hurricane moves northeast, weakens its winds, but drive copious
moisture into the southwestern US. Some of the moisture will
begin to arrive late in southern Nevada late Sunday. Receding
surface pressure gradients will move east and weaken Sunday
allowing gusty winds over eastern Nevada to diminish by Sunday
night.

Monday will be a bit of a transitional day as low moves in along
the central and southern CA coastal areas. The low will again
lead to southwesterly flow over the Great Basin, although winds
will not be as breezy. This second system will however generate a
little more instability, and also begin to tap into remnant
moisture from sheared out Hurricane Rosa that will be pushing up
into southern NV by Monday afternoon. The result of which will be
a isolate showers over western Humboldt County Monday afternoon,
and some isolated showers and thunderstorms across far east-
central NV including northeastern Nye and southern White Pine
Counties. Little if any precipitation is expected on Monday.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Saturday.

The long term forecast period remains focused on the remnant
moisture from Hurricane Rosa traveling across the Desert
Southwest. The models continue to remain in good agreement that
this moisture will travel through the region early next week. The
exact amount of moisture that will be able to intrude into central
and eastern NV remains a point of uncertainty. This region will
be under an area of divergence from a Pacific storm system and
upper- level trough moving into California. This will draw the
moisture from Rosa northward and the areas with heavy rain could
see flooding concerns, especially near the burn scars in central
and east central Nevada. There is enough confidence that a flash
flood watch has been issued for eastern northern Nye County and
White Pine County for Tuesday and Wednesday. In northern NV there
is a chance for rain as well but this will not be to the same
extent as further southward or eastward.

A cold front should translate across NV on Thursday bringing
showers mainly to the northern and central portions of the state.
Northerly flow will follow behind the front leaving cooler and mainly
dry conditions for the end of the week and into the weekend.

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.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through early Monday
morning across northern and central Nevada with a gradual increase
in SCT to BKN middle to high clouds. Breezy conditions with south
winds of 15 to 25 kts will continue overnight through Sunday
afternoon at KELY. Elsewhere south to southwest winds could gust
to around 20 kts Sunday afternoon.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will be lighter across the region on
Sunday, however just strong enough to reach critical levels in
zone 455. Have extended the RFW for zone 455 through Sunday
evening. Cooler across the region Sunday into Monday increasingly
cloudy skies. By late Monday afternoon or early evening their may
be a little light rain developing over western Humboldt County,
and possibly isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions
east- central NV.

As another upper level low approaches from the west late Monday
into Tuesday, remnant moisture from hurricane Rosa will work it's
way up into central NV. Showers with some isolated to possibly
scattered thunderstorms are expected across mainly just central
NV Monday night through noon on Wednesday. Later on Wednesday
showers may expand up into northern NV locations. At this time
best chances for moderate to heavy amounts of rainfall will be
focused over zones 455, 457 and possibly up into southern
portions of 454, 469, and 470 during the Monday night through
Tuesday night time-frame. There is some concern for flash
flooding, as well as debris flows over recent burn scars across
central NV areas next week.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT Sunday evening for White Pine
County.

Flash Flood Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday
night for Northeastern Nye County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt
Range-South Central Elko County-White Pine County.

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