Strong Wind in Nevada, May 12, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1016 AM PDT Sat May 12 2018

.UPDATE...

With high resolution forecast guidance indicating more widespread
shower activity today, and radar and satellite trends supporting
this idea, have updated the forecast to reflect this. Chances for
precipitation were increased along with liquid totals, however,
generally qpf totals will still be light -- under a tenth of an
inch. A few embedded weak thunderstorms remain possible this
afternoon with the greatest risk being snow pellet showers and
lightning. Also decreased high temperatures today due to the cold
area of low pressure being overhead, greater cloud cover, and
better chances for rain and snow showers. -Dawn

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM PDT Sat May 12 2018/

SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure remains over Nevada through the weekend. This will
keep temperatures cool with chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms. After a brief warm-up midweek, another system will
move into California and Nevada with chances for showers and
thunderstorms continuing through much of next week.

SHORT TERM...

An area of low pressure currently positioned in central Nevada is
forecast to remain over the silver state for the next couple days
pushing moisture into the region from the northeast. This will
keep chances of showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms in
the forecast through Monday as the low pressure very slowly
weakens and finally starts to progress eastward early next week.

As another wave of weak showers moves into the region this morning
cold temperatures aloft will keep snow levels potentially as low
as 6-7K feet with a few snow showers possible this morning, but
any accumulations in the lower elevations today will likely be
light and melt quickly. Temperatures will moderate this afternoon
and through the rest of the weekend allowing snow levels to rise
back to 8-10K feet with a few inches of snow accumulating in the
high Sierra a possibility through the next 48 hours.

Light to moderate northerly breezes today will become lighter the
next few days as the low pressure stalls out and gradients begin
to weaken. Temperatures in the mid 60s today in valleys will creep
back into the lower to mid 70s Sunday into Monday. -Zach

LONG TERM...Tuesday into next weekend...

Not many changes to the long term at this point with upper lows in
some form near the area for at least the next week. In fact, this
may be one of those periods that areas see rain for 7-9 days
straight. Not to worry though, most of it is in the form of showers
and amounts are generally light.

The first low is pulling away Tuesday, but enough instability
remains for more showers and isolated thunderstorms. The next low
approaches Wednesday with increasing southerly flow aloft. This
position may help to dry out Mono/Mineral Counties briefly Wednesday
before the low passes through the Southern Sierra Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue, and even as the low itself pulls
away Friday into Saturday, a weak trough aloft remains. With cool
temps aloft, showers and thunderstorms look to continue into next
weekend. Keep in mind, that most showers and storms will be during
the afternoon and evenings with lighter showers overnight. None of
them look to be exceptionally heavy at this time.

At this point, pinpointing where the heaviest showers will be is an
exercise in futility. There will likely be areas that are favored
from day to day depending on where the small scale waves move around
the lows. They are subtle and not well resolved, so the broad brush
approach will remain for the extended period. X

AVIATION...
Mainly VFR today, but there will be areas of -RA this morning near
and east of Hwy 95. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue through 18Z
here. for the afternoon, expect precip to become convective with
scattered SHRA and isold -TSRA from 20-04Z. The convection is
expected to develop just east of Hwy 395, with movement and new
development toward the SW into the Sierra. Localized MFR CIGS with
some PL in the heaviest showers. Winds outside of showers to remain
E-NE at 10-15 kts.

Showers and afternoon storms will continue through Monday. While
there could be a brief break for some areas Tue-Wed, showers and
thunderstorms are likely to continue into next weekend. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

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