A cluster of thunderstorms moved east out of Colorado over Southwest Nebraska in the evening. The thunderstorm activity continued over Southwest Nebraska for several hours before ending.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
A cluster of thunderstorms moved east out of Colorado over Southwest Nebraska in the evening. The thunderstorm activity continued over Southwest Nebraska for several hours before ending. The prolonged rainfall led to flash flooding near Trenton impacting Highways 34 and 6.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 9:18 PM CST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 918 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Update sent out to remove Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in CO as well as Wallace...Greeley and Wichita counties in NW KS. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #320 remains in effect through 100 am MDT for the remainder of the region. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018 Latest upper air analysis shows the retrograding ridge over the Four Corners Region. Rounding the ridge are small scale short wave troughs. (The short wave trough currently over Southern Wyoming, extending south into Central Colorado, will be responsible for firing the expected severe convection late this afternoon and evening.) At the surface a stalled front was west of the forecast area, running roughly north and south. For the rest of today am expecting the storm activity to fire off the higher terrain of Wyoming and Colorado and move east-southeast toward the forecast area. The stalled front should also serve as a focus for storm generation as the upper level short wave trough approaches. Near term data continues to suggest two batches of storm activity moving across the forecast area, one originating from Central Colorado and the second from the Nebraska Panhandle. the first batch coming from Colorado will affect the south half of the forecast area this evening. The northern batch should move in an hour or so behind the first, moving over the northeaster half to third of the forecast area. Flash flooding will be more favored for the northern batch due to the much larger area of storm activity expected. (Most of the storm activity with this batch will be northwest of the forecast area.) Foresee the storm activity in each batch merging into a couple storm clusters, the question is when and where that will occur. Storms with the northern batch may merge prior to even entering the forecast area, but don't have enough confidence to commit to that at this point. Storm activity will end from northwest to southeast late this evening, possibly extending an hour or two past midnight. Peak storm intensity time should be in the 6-9 PM local time window. Storm activity should then gradually decline after that point. Threats: Hail up to baseball size. Confidence is on the high side that hail will be larger than two inches in diameter. The hail threat will be greatest prior to storms merging into a larger group of storm activity. Wind gusts up to 75 MPH. This will be a threat with individual storms before they merge, and become a more widespread threat once the storm merge together. Flash flooding. This will become more of a threat when storms merge into clusters. The more favored part of the forecast area for flash flooding will be where the northern batch of storms move due to the storm activity extending so far to the northwest. Tornado. Low risk at this point due due to 0-1km shear and 0-1km helicity being very low for tornado formation. The risk for tornadoes does increase west in Colorado near the stationary front. Sidenote....There is disagreement with the near term data regarding whether storms will come in two batches or one large mass. Consensus of near term data points toward two batches and not just one. Sunday severe weather may occur again in the afternoon as a compact upper level short wave trough moves through the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018 An upper ridge persists over the desert southwest at the start of the long term, with an upper trough across the eastern half of the country, resulting in northwest flow aloft. On Sunday night, an upper disturbance swings from the northern Plains towards the region. Individual storms are anticipated to develop ahead of this wave during the afternoon hours in the higher terrain west and northwest of the region, transitioning into an MCS through the evening as storms travel southeastward. Still need to determine where and when this transition will occur. With good moisture, sufficient shear and instability, severe storms are anticipated. The main threats will be large hail, strong winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Chances for showers and storms linger into Monday morning and afternoon as the upper wave pushes east of the High Plains. Surface high pressure moves in behind late Monday, leading to dry weather through at least Wednesday. Late in the work week and heading into the weekend, the upper ridge over the desert southwest builds north and east into the Plains and mostly dry conditions continue. A warming trend is forecast throughout the long term with highs rising from the mid/upper 70s on Monday to the low 90s on Saturday. Low temperatures range from the low 50s to low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 510 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018 VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus will be the timing of storm arrival at the TAF sites. Currently looks like KGLD will be on the edge of the storm activity coming in from the west and the storm activity that will come down from the northwest. KMCK should have several hours of storm activity. Consensus data was indicating cloud bases would lower to MVFR. Looking at some individual models do not have much confidence of cloud bases being that low. Storm activity should be southeast of KMCK around 6z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...JTL
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Goodland KS 1044 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-300445- Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins- Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove- Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow- 1044 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018 /1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT... Locally heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and an isolated severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail will be possible in Red Willow, Decatur, Sheridan, Gove, Norton and Graham counties through 1 AM CDT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing golf ball size hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible late Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding will also be possible, particularly in areas that received heavy rain during the past 24 hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required. Vincent
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 1035 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018 KSZ003-004-NEZ081-290400- Norton KS-Decatur KS-Red Willow NE- 1035 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL NORTON... NORTHEASTERN DECATUR AND SOUTHEASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT... At 1035 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles south of Lebanon, or 14 miles northeast of Oberlin, moving southeast at 10 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Norcatur, Danbury, Lebanon, Kanona and Reager. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for northwestern Kansas...and southwestern Nebraska. LAT...LON 4014 10058 4021 10043 3985 10005 3973 10036 TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 332DEG 11KT 3995 10032 EV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
936 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM HEAVY RAIN WRAY 40.08N 102.23W
07/28/2018 M1.60 INCH YUMA CO PUBLIC
REPORT VIA FACEBOOK OF 1.6 INCHES OF RAIN
NEAR WRAY, CO TONIGHT. TIME ESTIMATED BASED
ON RADAR.
&&
JRPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
938 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0910 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ESE BEARDSLEY 39.78N 101.19W
07/28/2018 M49 MPH RAWLINS KS MESONET
MESONET STATION K5ADT, 2 ESE BEARDSLEY.
&&
JRPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1004 PM FLASH FLOOD MCCOOK 40.20N 100.62W
07/28/2018 RED WILLOW NE LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT OF MODERATE STREET FLOODING IN AND
NEAR MCCOOK, NE BY MCCOOK PD DISPATCH AND AN
EM.
&&
JRPPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1042 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N CULBERTSON 40.24N 100.84W
07/28/2018 M2.18 INCH HITCHCOCK NE PUBLIC
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1043 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N TRENTON 40.18N 101.01W
07/28/2018 HITCHCOCK NE PUBLIC
PORTION OF HIGHWAY 25 NORTH OF TRENTON
FLOODED.
&&
SJSThe Goodland radar (KGLD), 120 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:43 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Highways 34, 25, and 6 in the Trenton to Palisade and Culbertson triangle were flooded from the prolonged heavy rainfall. The corridor of heavy rainfall, with amounts over three inches, followed the Frenchman Creek basin from Palisade to Culbertson.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 775360.