A couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms developed near a warm front extending from central Missouri southeastward to the Tennessee Valley. The primary type of severe weather was large hail.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms developed near a warm front extending from central Missouri southeastward to the Tennessee Valley. The primary type of severe weather was large hail. However, local wind damage accompanied a small bowing segment that organized late in the evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 5:58 PM CST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 658 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 The surface warm front is poised just to the south/west of the FA, starting to nub into/across the southern SEMO border. Dew points there are pooling in the mid-upr 50s, in the warm sector, with gusts into/thru the teens mph accompanying the boundary and its passage. Still dry 20s dew points hold over our north/east with drier easterlies prevailing there. Model soundings show a strong inversion below 10K feet, effectively capping our rain chances this pm. This is assisted by teleconnected height rises aloft, in response to the parent Low pinwheelintg its way toward us from the Plains. We do see some warm sector elevated/insentropic lift to our south, around MEM, but this area is staying firmly south of us. Short res models suggest that should continue to be the case for most of the rest of the pm. Things change tonight as the Low moves into Missouri, and the surface warm front is ultimately drawn northward into/across our area. The ridge is shunted east and the modeled soundings show the inversion breaks down, allowing the ample warm/moist advection to begin to precipitate. Thunder chances are minor, as we see the back off on the swody1 with gen risk only. It looks to be mainly with the lift of the warm front as an assisted lifting force, so from about 00z-09z is the convective (slight) chance mention. Storm total qpf looks to stay below 1/2 inch for the event, maybe at 1/4 inch or less for most of us. Most of the pcpn chance is with the warm front tonight. A lingering pop in our north/east is carried tmrw, until the Low itself passes with the trailing cold fropa. It'll be slightly cooler/drier behind the front for Sunday, but still seasonal. Pcpn chances return quickly Sunday night, as the upper flow backs on the other side of the east ward departing ridge. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Forecast confidence is rather high in the larger-scale features through the extended portion of this forecast. The latest GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all bring a potent storm system eastward across our region Monday. It will be a wet day, with at the least, elevated showers and thunderstorms. The exact path of the system will determine whether surface-based instability will develop and bring the potential for severe storms. The deep-layer wind shear will be impressive, so with any tangible surface-based instability, supercellular structures will be possible. However, the strong forcing may result in more linear structures, if the boundaries are well-defined. The system will be nearly occluded, so the surface boundaries may not be so well defined. At this point, Monday is certainly worth monitoring closely for severe weather potential. The Monday system will move by fairly quickly, but more energy will dive south behind it and carve out a larger-scale trough, which may keep the area wet into Wednesday. This trough is expected to push east of the area later Wednesday into Thursday, as surface high pressure settles overhead. There definitely will be a good chance of a light freeze in the north Tuesday night, and over most of the area Wednesday night. The growing season is trying to get going across the region, but has not reached the point where we will begin issuing Frost and Freeze products just yet. The surface high will slip east of the area next Friday, and some warm advection precipitation will be possible Friday or Friday night. Temperatures will start out near normal levels Monday and then dip well below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. We will begin to climb back toward normal Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 As low pressure approaches tonight, shower coverage will be on the increase through the evening, especially 02-08Z. A thunderstorm is also possible later this evening, primarily west of the Wabash and LBL (including KCGI/KPAH). Ceilings will lower to MVFR through the evening and persist through much of the night. Partial clearing is possible in western portions (KCGI/KPAH) later tonight, which could lead to the development of patchy fog. Eastern portions of the area (including KEVV/KOWB) will likely hang on to MVFR ceilings through much of Saturday, while VFR conditions return to the rest of the area. Southeast winds ahead of the warm front will become southerly with the front's passage tonight, then shift westerly on Saturday behind a cold front. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 215 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-171000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 215 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A slight chance of thunderstorms will accompany a warm front's passage across the area tonight. Severe storms are not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A chance of thunderstorms is forecast Monday. It appears the best chance will be over western Kentucky, where severe storms cannot be ruled out at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter should stay abreast of the latest forecasts and updates for potential activation chances.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
928 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018
MOZ100-170315-
Wayne MO-
928 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 927 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Piedmont, moving east at 40 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Greenville In Wayne County, Williamsville, Shook and Mill Spring.
LAT...LON 3714 9078 3718 9022 3709 9022 3708 9011
3704 9011 3704 9015 3701 9015 3701 9017
3699 9017 3699 9018 3696 9021 3696 9022
3694 9022 3699 9071 3700 9073 3705 9073
3705 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 270DEG 33KT 3706 9072
RJPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
954 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018
MOZ107-170315-
Carter MO-
954 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 953 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hunter, or 8 miles southeast of Van Buren, moving east at 35 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Ellsinore and Hunter.
LAT...LON 3702 9091 3703 9073 3700 9073 3700 9071
3697 9072 3697 9070 3693 9070 3693 9068
3689 9068 3688 9066 3682 9067 3687 9096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 270DEG 33KT 3695 9088
RJPThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 181 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:59 UTC.
8 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Dime-sized hail was reported at the junction of U.S. Highway 60 and State Route 21, and then east to Ellsinore.
A shed was damaged, a metal barn was leveled, and power lines were down on Highway 25. Debris was scattered approximately 300 yards. A pivot irrigation system was blown over.
Damaging winds struck parts of northern Stoddard County. Near Bell City, a house sustained shingle damage, and pieces of aluminum siding were wrapped around tree branches. At Painton, an attached garage sustained roof damage.
The hail accumulated four inches deep in some areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, March 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 739920, 739921, 739922, 739929, 739923, 739930, 739924, 739925, 739927, 739928.