Scattered thunderstorms with rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour lingered over a few locations in the Ozarks causing localized flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms with rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour lingered over a few locations in the Ozarks causing localized flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 5:25 AM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 In the near term, will be monitoring for an increase in shower/tstm coverage toward 5-6am along and northeast of a a frontal boundary lifting northward into sw MO and far se KS. Some of this development will occur ahead of the complex of storms now over northern OK/southern KS while another area is expected to fill in along the corridor from just n-e of the KC Metro southeast into the Lake of the Ozarks Region and into south central MO. The development will occur with increased low level lift with a modest veering low level jet. MUCAPEs of 1000-1500 j/kg could support some small hail with stronger updrafts. The convection, particularly over the eastern cwfa will linger through the morning hours and weaken toward midday with persistent cloud cover and weak instability and upper level support/lift. However, better instability over the western cwfa should allow additional scattered sfc based convection to develop this afternoon along any boundaries left over from the morning activity. Sfc temperatures getting back up into the upper 80s/near 90 with mlcapes of around 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear of around 30 knots would support strong/severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main potential hazards. A lot of small scale details have to play out to be too precise, but in general the western cwfa west of MO Hwy 65 would have the better chances for isolated stronger storms at least initially. Some of this activity may drift east with time into the early evening before weakening. Weak support aloft in terms of a lifting mechanism will probably limit the overall coverage of the renewed convection. A compact stronger upper low and shortwave will move through the Dakotas and into the Corn Belt IA/northern MO by 12z/7am Thursday. Some guidance brings the southern extent of some thunderstorms as far south as our cwfa late tonight into early Thu. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 Thursday-Friday: The shortwave moving through early Thu should move off to the east in short order and we will carry only modest chances for rain through early afternoon over the eastern cwfa. Progged temperatures over the western cwfa are well up into the 90s and wouldn't be surprised if a few counties may need a heat advisory Thursday. With rising heights in the wake of the shortwave, Friday will be the overall hottest day of the week with some triple digit readings possible in the Joplin/Four-State Region. Weekend: A weak sfc trough will move through late Friday with lower dew points/daytime humidity for the weekend. At or above normal high temperatures are still expected, but it will be a "drier heat". Given the drier air mass, it looks like the GFS MOS guidance may be a little cool for highs this weekend. The blended forecast in our database is a few degrees warmer as is the ECMWF. Monday-Tuesday: The upper level low over will drift from the Great Lakes to the OH Vly Region while another shortwave moves through the northern Plains by Sunday/Monday. An upper level ridge ahead of the next approaching shortwave should keep things dry Monday. Guidance really starts to vary by Tuesday with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean more aggressive in moving the shortwave farther south into the Midwest and lower MO River Vly. The ops ECMWF and Canadian hold the upper ridge over the southern U.S. more firmly in place (drier). The model blend does have some low tstms chances with the GFS's influence for Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 Scattered convection was found across the region this morning, with the most concentrated area to the north and east of the TAF sites. Expect this convection to wane later this morning, with additional storms possible again later today and this evening. Overall, ceilings will be in the VFR flight category with localized IFR conditions likely within the storms. Have covered the later periods with a prob30 group. There could be additional storms towards the end of the TAF period but confidence not high enough to include at this time. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Raberding
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 514 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191015- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 514 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited hail risk. Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk. Limited flooding risk. Elevated lightning risk. Limited excessive heat risk. DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning over parts of the area. Stronger storms with small hail, frequent lightning and pockets of heavy rain are expected this morning from the Truman Lake and Lake of the Ozarks Region in central Missouri south to the West Plains and Alton areas. Some flash flooding will be possible where storm movement causes persistent heavy rainfall to fall over the same areas. This area of storms will weaken by early afternoon. Additional scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will be possible where daytime heating occurs over parts of southwest and west central Missouri. Isolated storms will have the potential for damaging winds and large hail. Heat index values in the upper 90s are expected over southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances will linger into early Thursday, mainly for eastern counties in the outlook area. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible Friday. Heat index values of 100 to 107 will be possible over southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri Thursday and Friday afternoons. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... With only a limited or localized overall risk for severe storms today and this evening, a general spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf DSA
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 105 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:29 UTC.
6 flash flood, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Benton County dispatch reported that Highway 7 south at Turkey Creek was flooded and impassable.
The COCORAHS station (MO-SR-1) 3miles east of Lowry City reported a 24 hour rainfall of 4.02 inches most of which fell in 6 hours during the afternoon of the 18th.
Numerous city streets were flooded and impassable in Warsaw, Mo.
The Mesonet station WRSM7 in Warsaw reported a 24 hour rainfall of 6.16 inches. The majority of the rain fell in a 6 hour period during the afternoon of September 18th.
Reports of several feet of water flowing over roadways along Highway 5 northwest of town were received.
Linn Creek was flowing out of its banks and flooded across Highway 54 in Linn Creek, MO. o.
Hay bales were reported floating after 5 to 6 inches of rainfall. Damage to farm fencing was reported from rapidly flowing flood waters.
The Warm Fork Spring River running through Warm Fork Park in ran out of its banks and flooded the Park. The roadway along Warm Fork Spring River was reported as under water with water rising slowly.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 771517, 771532, 771518, 771533, 771520, 771522, 771525, 771528.