A cold front produced a narrow broken line of thunderstorms of which two reached severe limits across portions of northeast Mississippi during the early afternoon hours of December 31st.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A cold front produced a narrow broken line of thunderstorms of which two reached severe limits across portions of northeast Mississippi during the early afternoon hours of December 31st.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 30, 11:47 PM CST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated Aviation Discussion for 06Z TAFs && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1129 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018/ UPDATE... Quick update to add patchy fog to the entire forecast area. Most locations are reporting 2-4 statute miles of visibility at this hour. Conditions should begin to improve as a warm front, currently over north Mississippi, lifts northward across the area through sunrise. AC3 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 813 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018/ UPDATE... Quick update to add scattered thunderstorms to the entire forecast area. Mainly elevated convection is occurring as a shortwave lifts northward across the area. Latest mesoanalysis shows an area of 100-500 J/kg of MUCAPE and bulk shear around 40 knots along and south of I-40. Due to the lack of a surface boundary and more instability, storms will remain relatively weak with small hail and heavy downpours with the most organized of cells. Expect scattered storms to continue through the overnight hours...as another embedded wave lifts northward after midnight. The rest of the forecast is in great shape. AC3 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018/ DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a surface low in the Northern Gulf of Mexico south of Houston. A warm front extends from this low up into portions of Southern Alabama an Georgia. Meanwhile, a subtle mid-level shortwave embedded in southwest flow aloft and subsequent isentropic lift has resulted in the development of rain showers over portions of Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. The aforementioned warm front is expected to begin lifting north across the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Showers are expected to become more numerous to widespread with time tonight with the potential for perhaps an elevated thunderstorm or two. Short term models indicate a surface low will move north into Arkansas on Monday and into Southern Illinois and the Ohio River Valley by Monday night. Increasing low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and shear will be supportive for the development of showers and thunderstorms in the form of a line on Monday. However, surface based instability will be on the weaker side and perhaps struggling to reach 500 J/kg. Nonetheless, this may be enough to produce strong to perhaps a few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the primary threat if boundary layer winds can be transported to the surface. Sufficient low level directional shear may result in the development of a tornado or two perhaps embedded within the line if conditions become favorable on Monday. In addition to the severe thunderstorm threat, precipitable water values will be approaching 2 inches supporting a localized heavy rainfall threat across the Mid-South tonight into the day Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to taper off Monday afternoon and Monday evening as a cold front pushes through the forecast area. This will bring precipitation free weather back for Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Long term models indicate precipitation chances will return in the form of overrunning rain as another upper level low develops over the Southwest United States, moves into the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by late this week. Unfortunately, model run to run differences are making precipitation type forecasts difficult to pin down this far out with the GFS being the cooler model and ECMWF favoring a warmer temperature profile. Consequently, have kept rain or snow mention in the affected areas until this can be better determined in subsequent forecasts. Stay tuned... High pressure is expected to return next weekend as the upper level low departs the Lower Mississippi Valley. CJC && .AVIATION... Ceilings are the big issue with during the overnight periods, some areas will be in LIFR range for ceilings especially in the warm sector. Heavy rain tonight with some limited visibilities. Winds will increase in the next couple of hours along with the wind shear in the low levels as there is a low level jet near 60 kt in the lowest 3 kft. Thunderstorms will develop in the morning and will move east as the front moves across the area. Winds will diminish a few hours after the front moves through and will be almost westerly. Ceilings may hang in a little longer than the forecast. TLSJr && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 340 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-312345- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 340 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the day on Monday, especially along and east of the Mississippi River. Damaging winds will remain the primary severe weather threat, along with a potential for a tornado or two. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 22 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:15 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees down in Amory and on Highway 371 north of town.
Tree down, equipment shed damaged and minor damage to a house roof.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 796727, 796724.