Isolated showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon of July 2nd, in response to a very hot and humid air mass, characteristic of temperatures near 100 degrees, and increasing low level moisture from the east from an upper low pressure system that began to drift west along the Alabama and Mississippi coasts. Given the very hot temperatures and moderate instability in place, one of…
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The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon of July 2nd, in response to a very hot and humid air mass, characteristic of temperatures near 100 degrees, and increasing low level moisture from the east from an upper low pressure system that began to drift west along the Alabama and Mississippi coasts. Given the very hot temperatures and moderate instability in place, one of these storms quickly became severe over Northern Bienville Parish, with damaging winds downing numerous trees and power lines over the communities of Gibsland and Bryceland. These storms quickly dissipated by sunset with the loss of heating.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 1:33 PM CST, 4 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Showers continue to trend downward concerning coverage across portions of Northeast Louisiana while heating and a persistant shear axis embedded within a ridge of high pressure aloft has allowed for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms just north of our region across portions of Western and Central Arkansas. Otherwise, another day of upper 90s to near triple digit temperatures across the remainder of the region but relief is in sight across portions of the region in the form of increased rain chances and if not that, then increased cloud cover which should help to offset temperatures somewhat through the short term portion of the forecast. This aforementioned disturbance expected to bring us these increased precipitation chances is otherwise called a TUTT low (short for Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) or another technical term for a Upper Level Cold Core area of low pressure. This disturbances, if they affect our region, typically reside to the south of a strong ridge of high pressure aloft and given that they are typically embedded in the easterlies, move from east to west, typically along the Gulf Coast. This is exactly the type of set up we have currently across the Eastern CONUS with a strong ridge of high pressure across the Middle Atlantic with the ridge axis extending south and west into the Ouachitas and into the Texas Hill Country. Vis Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a build up of scattered to numerous areas of convection across Eastern MS and Western AL with the best coverage noted along the SE LA and S MS Gulf Coast. This feature will retrograde westward, underneath the ridge axis overnight and through the day Tuesday, bringing with it increase rain chances across most of the region. As is the case today, the highest rain chances should be felt across our southern most zones or south of the I-20 Corridor Tuesday into Tuesday Night with the best rain chances across our southwest third for Wednesday as the TUTT low moves quickly westward into Central Texas by Wednesday Night. Convection could produce brief heavy downpours but the convection should be moving relatively quickly with the low itself and thus, widespread flooding is not likely with this type of system even tropical moisture will be associated with the system. Even across our areas where rainall chances are much less, i.e. north of the I-20 Corridor of Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana, the increased cloud cover should help to lower max temperatures the next couple days but areas along and northwest of the I-30 Corridor could still flirt with triple digits for Tuesday. Did not stray too far from forecast MOS temps as they looked pretty good given the scenario described above for the short term. 13 .LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Tuesday/ ...Beneficial rainfall to begin this first week of July... Expect an upper trough centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico this Monday morning to continue slowly retrograding W throughout this holiday week. The first trough in the short term gets replaced by another trough late Wednesday into Thursday which will keep rain chances rather high throughout this week. By late Thursday, this second trough will move ashore into SE TX. However, expect a weakness to remain on the ERN side of the very strong 600 dekameter ridge at 500 HPa centered over CO for this weekend and early next week. The GFS then forecasts another weak trough to retrograde W along the Gulf Coast with SCT showers and TSTMS in the forecast for early next week as well. With increased cloud cover and rainfall during this week with the above said trough passage, expect temperatures to fall to near normal for early July, that is highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s. These lower temperatures and light to moderate rains should at least keep drought conditions from deepening through mid July. VIII && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1157 AM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018/ AVIATION... Showers are trying to slowly dissipate across NE LA and SW AR attm but should reignite with the aid of afternoon heating across these same locations later today. Have included VCSH at the ELD/MLU terminals to account for this but coverage will be too isolated to mention at the TXK terminal. Expect that VFR conditions should prevail outside rain areas through the day with any convection dissipating after 03/00z this evening. Still watching for a disturbance along the Northern Gulf Coast to migrate westward overnight and through the day Wednesday. This disturbance should have abundant mid level cloud cover associated with it increasing during the late night hours across N LA and SC AR with that cloud cover spreading westward during the post dawn hours on Wednesday. Scattered convection will also be possible with this disturbance to have introduced VCTS as early as 03/09z at the MLU terminal and by 03/15z at the SHV/ELD/TXK to account for the scattered convection. Winds through the remainder of the day will be mostly variable and near or under 10kts with winds decoupling after dark this evening. Look for mostly variable winds beyond 03/12z for Wednesday with speeds under 10kts. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 95 76 92 / 20 40 40 30 MLU 75 89 73 92 / 50 70 70 20 DEQ 73 96 74 93 / 20 20 20 10 TXK 75 95 75 93 / 20 20 20 20 ELD 74 91 73 93 / 30 40 30 20 TYR 74 97 75 91 / 10 20 40 40 GGG 74 97 75 90 / 10 30 40 40 LFK 74 95 74 87 / 10 50 60 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && 13/VIII/13
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1037 AM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-011>014-018>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-030000- Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette- Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Red River- Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell- La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass- 1037 AM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today across the region in response to weak disturbances aloft. These disturbance will interact with daytime heating to produce this convection but these thunderstorms should not be severe in nature. Otherwise, the heat will continue to be the main story today with daytime highs expected to range in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees. When you combine these temperatures to the afternoon humidity values, we should see heat index temperatures this afternoon reaching near 100 to 105 degrees. If you must be outside, remember to take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday... An upper level disturbance will drift west across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into Southern Arkansas and much of Louisiana Tuesday, which should help initiate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the region. However, one more day of very hot temperatures is expected especially over East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, portions of Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana, as temperatures again climb into the upper 90s, and resultant heat indices range between 100 and 105 degrees. These scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist Tuesday night and Wednesday over much of the region as this disturbance continues to drift west across the area. Brief heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds will be possible in the stronger storms. While these storms may become more isolated Thursday, scattered showers and thunderstorms should increase Friday through Sunday, ahead of a potential series of upper level disturbances that will again shift west across the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency managers, amateur radio operators, and storm spotters, will not be needed through tonight. LAZ010-017-TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-030000- De Soto-Sabine-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee- Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine- 1037 AM CDT Mon Jul 2 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight... An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over much of the area today. As a result, temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees this afternoon. When combined with the humidity, heat indices will range from 100 to 105 degrees once again. If you must be outside, remember to take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday... An upper level disturbance will drift west across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into Southern Arkansas and much of Louisiana Tuesday, which should help initiate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the region. However, one more day of very hot temperatures is expected especially over East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, portions of Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana, as temperatures again climb into the upper 90s, and resultant heat indices range between 100 and 105 degrees. These scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist Tuesday night and Wednesday over much of the region as this disturbance continues to drift west across the area. Brief heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds will be possible in the stronger storms. While these storms may become more isolated Thursday, scattered showers and thunderstorms should increase Friday through Sunday, ahead of a potential series of upper level disturbances that will again shift west across the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency managers, amateur radio operators, and storm spotters, will not be needed through tonight. 13
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Shreveport LA 650 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2018 LAZ012-030045- Bienville LA- 650 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISH UNTIL 745 PM CDT... At 650 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Gibsland, or 14 miles southeast of Minden, moving south at 10 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Gibsland, Bienville, Bryceland, Mount Lebanon and Sailes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3237 9316 3258 9311 3258 9299 3236 9296 TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 004DEG 9KT 3253 9305 19
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
654 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2018
LAZ004-005-030045-
Lincoln LA-Claiborne LA-
654 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLAIBORNE AND
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN PARISHES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...
At 654 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Arcadia, or 13 miles southeast of Homer, moving south
at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Athens, Spring Lake, Lake Clairborne, Corinth, Mount Zion and Aycock.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3258 9268 3259 9318 3262 9318 3275 9314
3276 9274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 008DEG 11KT 3266 9289
19The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:07 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous trees and power lines were downed over much of Gibsland.
Trees and power lines were downed in Bryceland, and over much of the northern half of Bienville Parish.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Louisiana in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Louisiana, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 754726, 754727.