A slow moving low pressure system, in combination with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Gordon, and abundant moisture brought a long duration heavy rainfall event to much of the Bluegrass region of eastern Kentucky. Southwesterly low level winds ahead of a very slow moving cold front ushered rich moisture into eastern Kentucky, which when combined with the available lift, resulted in copious…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A slow moving low pressure system, in combination with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Gordon, and abundant moisture brought a long duration heavy rainfall event to much of the Bluegrass region of eastern Kentucky. Southwesterly low level winds ahead of a very slow moving cold front ushered rich moisture into eastern Kentucky, which when combined with the available lift, resulted in copious amounts of rainfall. This, in combination with several inches of rain the past couple of days, led to widespread flooding and flash flooding as multi-day rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches occurred with isolated totals near 7-8 inches.
Bath, Montgomery, and Menifee Counties all saw significant impacts. This includes 50-70 homes and 20-25 businesses, one of which was a school in Menifee County, being inundated with water. Numerous roads were damaged as culverts were washed out, forcing schools to close the following day. Disaster declarations were made for Montgomery and Menifee Counties while nearly a dozen water rescues were performed. Additionally, a nine year old boy was swept into a culvert in Morehead.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 7:13 AM EST, 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 813 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 758 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018 A band of showers and some embedded thunderstorms continues to persist near the Interstate 64 corridor. Dual Pol estimates indicate that rainfall in this area is nearing the 3 hour Flash Flood Guidance in a few locations. A Flood Advisory has been extended for some of this area accordingly. The area extent of the Flash Flood Watch remains valid as well. Main updates were to adjust temps toward recent observations and raise pops over the next couple of hours near the I 64 corridor. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018 The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon have more or less merged with a frontal zone that extends across the Commonwealth this morning. An upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes to the Mid MS Valley and Lower OH Valley early this morning. At the surface, an area of low pressure was over western KY with a warm front extending east and northeast along or just south of the I 64 corridor. Showers and a stray thunderstorm or two were ongoing across the region at this time. Overall, rain rates have decreased overnight and there has been a relative lull in the activity for much of the southern two thirds of the area. PW is expected to remain in the 1.75 to about 2.1 inch range into this evening as the upper level trough progresses east and an upper low briefly closes off over MI. At the surface, low pressure should reach OH this evening with the trailing cold front moving across East KY this evening and tonight. With abundant moisture in place, rather widespread convection is anticipated especially this afternoon and evening. This convection should continue to produce locally heavy rainfall. Portions of the area have received heavy rain during the past 24 hours. The heaviest rain has generally been northwest of JKL especially nearer to the I 64 corridor. Some locations nearer to JKL as well as in Pike County picked up heavy rain as well so the areal extent of the Flood Watch has remained unchanged. Locations that receive more substantial heating would develop stronger instability and possibly experience a stronger storm or two or perhaps a locally severe thunderstorm with gusty winds being the main threat. This has been highlighted in the Marginal Risk from SPC and is also noted in the HWO along with the locally heavy rain and flash flood risk. The upper trough/low should continue gradually progressing across the Great Lakes and into Ontario by the end of the period while the surface low tracks toward Lake Erie. The trailing cold front should eventually pass east of the area on Monday. Overall, a decreasing chance of convection and rain rates is expected overnight and into the day on Monday and as a drier airmass begins to move in. Temperatures should reach near normal levels today with cloud cover leading to slightly above normal temperatures tonight. Low level moisture should linger into Monday despite the overall moisture in the column decreasing. The persistent low clouds on Monday will suppress high temperatures which should only reach the low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 332 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018 The models are in good agreement with the near term portion of the extended, showing the main trough associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon moving off to the northeast and dissipating. Closer to the surface, the cold front from Sunday and into Monday will stall just southeast of Kentucky by Tuesday evening. The boundary will then slowly meander back north into eastern Kentucky early Wednesday and remain through Friday. This will keep chances of showers in the forecast, with the potential for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday as well. The models seem to be coming into better agreement than past runs with the trajectory of Tropical Storm Florence; however, the ECMWF continues to show the storm moving more inland than the GFS. Both models do show it progressing up to the North Carolina and Virginia border by late Friday, but progression slows into the weekend with a gradual transition into the northern stream due to zonal flow aloft. With this system near the end of the forecast period, confidence is low whether eastern Kentucky would be impacted. However, this will continue to be monitored with future model runs. High temperatures for the extended will start out in the upper 70s and then gradually increase to be in the mid to upper 80s by the end of the week. Lows will follow a similar trend, starting out in the low 60s and gradually increase to the mid to upper 60s by Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018 Some valley locations initially have MVFR to IFR fog while more northern locations near or north of I 64 have convection ongoing with as well as low clouds. Valley fog should gradually lift through 14Z or 15Z with ceilings also gradually improving during that period in the north as the warm front gradually lifts toward the OH River. A lull in convection is anticipated late in the morning, but with daytime heating, shower and thunderstorm activity will pick back up especially after 18Z ahead of the cold front as low pressure tracks into OH. As this convection and cold front work across the area, a gradual return to MVFR and some IFR is expected in most locations during the later 12 to 15 hours of the period. Winds will be light on average through the period outside of any thunderstorms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>112-119-120. && UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 441 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>112-119-120-101145- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Elliott- Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 441 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Multiple rounds of showers and some thunderstorms will lead to locally heavy rain through this evening. This additional rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially in locations that experience multiple thunderstorms. In addition, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Wednesday through Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of heavy rain, flash flooding, or high water. KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-113>118-101145- Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox- Bell-Harlan-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher- Including the cities of Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, and Whitesburg 441 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain through this evening. Localized flash flooding is possible, especially in locations that experience multiple thunderstorms. In addition, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Wednesday through Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flash flooding or high water. JP
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:52 UTC.
10 flood, 7 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A few inches of water was observed flowing across Spencer Road southeast of Mount Sterling.
Water was observed across Stepstone Road southwest of Owingsville, as well as along Kentucky Highway 36 near Interstate 64.
Water of an unknown depth was observed flowing across Flat Creek Road southeast of Sharpsburg.
Water of an unknown depth was observed flowing across Wyoming/Blue Rock Road north of Owingsville.
Emergency Management reported swiftly flowing water resulting in major road and culvert damage near the intersection of Hinkston Pike and Garden Springs Drive in Mount Sterling.
Water was observed flowing over Kentucky Highway 36 near Interstate 64 south of Owingsville, resulting in the closure of the road. Additionally, a woman was rescued from rapidly flowing flood waters as her vehicle became submerged northwest of Olympia.
Water was observed covering Martha Mills Road south of Flemingsburg.
Flooding occurred throughout and around Mount Sterling. Four water rescues were performed and an estimated 30-50 homes were inundated by flood waters along with 20 businesses.
Kentucky Highway 15 was covered with water in a couple of places east of Stanton. Additionally, overflow drainages became covered with water as they overfilled their capacity, including those as far southeast as Halls Branch Road.
Emergency Management reported water over the road in several spots on Kentucky Highway 211 near its intersection with Kentucky Highway 36 southeast of Olympia.
Several vehicles were submerged in water in Morehead, including police cruisers. Several roads were closed due to water covering them from overflowing creeks and streams. Additionally, a nine year old boy was swept into a culvert by flood waters near Morehead. His body was found a week later in the Triplett Creek area.
Water flowed across most county roads, resulting in numerous road closures. Water was observed entering about 20 homes, leading to a few water rescues. One school sustained flood damage along with a couple of local businesses.
Emergency Management reported lingering flooding late Sunday evening into early Monday, forcing several roads to remain closed for a period of time.
Halls Branch southeast of Stanton spilled out of its banks, resulting in rapidly flowing flood waters threatening Halls Branch Road.
A local media outlet reported water flowing across Dog Trot Road outside of Frenchburg. This led to the road completely washing out.
Dispatch reported water flowing over several roads, including Fitchburg Road east of Ravenna.
Water was observed rushing across Adams Ridges Road from Brush Creek just west of Clay City.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flood, Rowan | 2018-09-09 | 9 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 773409, 773410, 773411, 773412, 774126, 773423, 773413, 773416, 773414, 773415, 773417, 773418, 774124, 773421, 773419, 773420, 773422.