Several hours of moderate to heavy rainfall this morning led to localized flooding northwest of Ewing in Fleming County. This long duration of intense rain was driven by a stationary frontal boundary in conjunction with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Gordon.
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The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Several hours of moderate to heavy rainfall this morning led to localized flooding northwest of Ewing in Fleming County. This long duration of intense rain was driven by a stationary frontal boundary in conjunction with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Gordon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 8, 9:14 AM EST, 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1014 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018 Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them into the mid morning hours. Temps appear to be a bit slow to warm up today so did temper them a tad. In addition, with the bulk of the shower and embedded thunderstorm activity to the north, will begin to see a north to south temperature gradient with the persistent rainfall and cloud cover to the north. Thus, may expect to see more instability to the south and eventually more discrete or clustered thunderstorms to the south. However, it is noted that there will be a cap to bust, though not strong. Have updated the pops to adjust for this reasoning. Also, fog has been removed from the zones and a new zfp has been issued. UPDATE Issued at 622 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018 Updated to ingest current observations for temperatures and dew points. Also, the radar shows some convection entering the northern portion of Fleming County. Therefore, increased PoPs for this region through the morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 415 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018 Current surface analysis shows a low pressure system, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon, over Missouri and Arkansas with a stalled front extending over the southern portion of Kentucky. As the surface low pressure system moves to the northeast over the Ohio Valley this weekend, a warm front will lift northward over Kentucky early Sunday before a cold front advances towards eastern Kentucky later Sunday. The main bulk of the precipitation for the short term will be with the passage of the cold front. However, the total rainfall expected with this system has trended downwards in the last couple of days. Generally, between 0.5 and 1.5 inches is expected through the end of the weekend over eastern Kentucky, with the highest amounts along and north of the Mountain Parkway in the Bluegrass region. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat with this system, but thunderstorms are also possible through Sunday, mainly in the afternoon/evening hours each day. Followed the lead of the CONSShort for PoPs today since it had a good handle on current trends. The CONSShort as well as the HRRR and RAP models show a relative lull in convection until this afternoon/evening. For Sunday, stuck with the Blend for the most part. Although, did increase PoPs during frontal passage Sunday. Followed close with guidance and CONSShort for temperatures. Today's highs will be in the mid to upper 70s in the north and mid 80s in southeastern Kentucky. Sunday's highs will be similar, with upper 70s in the north and low 80s in the south. Low temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 440 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018 The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge over the Atlantic in the vicinity of Bermuda and another ridge over the Pacific extending into the southwestern US. A weak upper low is expected to be over the Great Lakes to begin the period with a trough to its south into the MS Valley and Lower OH Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to be over OH to begin the period with a cold front trailing south into KY and the southeastern states. The surface low should track into the Great Lakes early next week although the trailing cold front should slow down and become stationary or nearly stationary across the Appalachians. However, as mid level heights increase across the southeast and the OH and TN Valley, the boundary should return west and northwest across the area at midweek before becoming ill defined by Thursday and Friday. At that point, attention will turn to what is expected to be Hurricane Florence near the Carolinas Thursday through the end of the period. Although the track of this system remains uncertain and it should not have any affect on the region prior to the end of the period, some guidance that has a more westerly track would bring some precipitation to the region associated with its remnants about a week from now. The approaching cold front and shortwave trough working into the region should lead to numerous to widespread showers Sunday night and into Monday with some thunderstorms possible. With the rather slow movement of the boundary some locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out early in the period or at least some locally heavy rain totals when combined with rain that falls during the short term period. This could lead to some rises on area creeks and localized high water or even flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Once, the upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley Monday night into Tuesday, coverage of convection should decrease. Generally diurnally driven isolated to scattered convection cannot be ruled out each day from Wed into Fri despite some increase in mid and upper level heights as a rather moist airmass for early September persists and daytime highs reach above normal levels. Temperatures will average below normal Monday into Tuesday with the boundary over the region or just to the east of the area. Temperatures should moderate by the second half of the week to above normal levels corresponding to the rising heights. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2018 Low clouds and stratus continue to gradually lift across the region with the fog most widespread in the Big Sandy region per observations though valley fog is present elsewhere. With the slow northward advancement of a frontal boundary over Kentucky and approach of remnants of Gordon, showers and thunderstorms are possible today. An initial band of convection will affect locations near and north of I 64 including KSYM through 14Z. Additional convection should peak between 18Z and 0Z. Most TAF sites will be affected by shower activity, but did include VCTS at most locations. Winds, outside of any storms, will generally be light. Outside of convection, conditions should be mainly VFR though locations along and north of I 64 such as KSYM should be MVFR for much of the final 12 hours of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...CGAL LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...CGAL/JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 449 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 449 AM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A couple of storms could produce locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Sunday through Monday, leading to isolated flash flooding. Thunderstorms on Sunday could also produce strong wind gusts. Thunderstorms are also possible at times Sunday evening through Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flash flooding or high water. JP/CGAL
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch reported that Johnson Creek Road northwest of Ewing was washed out due to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 773262.