An upper trough that had been in place for a couple days with temperatures in the low to mid 80s continued to produce showers with heavy rainfall. 5 help produce torrential rainfall in south and east-central Kentucky causing some minor flooding and small hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
An upper trough that had been in place for a couple days with temperatures in the low to mid 80s continued to produce showers with heavy rainfall. Precipitable water levels above 1.5 help produce torrential rainfall in south and east-central Kentucky causing some minor flooding and small hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 12:21 PM EST, 2 hours earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 121 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 .Forecast Update... Issued at 922 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 Widespread rain with embedded thunder has been falling along the lower Ohio Valley in an area of low/mid level convergence along a broad surface boundary, in a corridor of max precipitable water around 1.6 inches, and beneath some weak upper level divergence. Radar presentation has been indicating a slow weakening of most of the activity, but we did a quick update to significantly increase PoPs and QPF for the next few hours where rain has moved into western sections of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 Indeed the wave now over central Missouri is starting to spark off storms in a band along the Ohio River in western Kentucky. This gives some credence to the earlier models thinking our southwest Indiana counties should go first with activity this morning...then firing off further scattered storms to the east and southeast. Have trended the forecast to the latest hi-res guidance that most closely matches this thinking. That raises the chances into the likely range for our eastern counties...so will issue a zone update shortly. && .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 After our record warm first half of May, today we back off to somewhere roughly halfway between normal and those records...with highs in the low to mid 80s. A weak trough of low pressure at the surface is partially to blame, as it will keep in some cloud cover as well as good rain chances. Another cause is a couple of areas of low pressure aloft, one to our west and one to our southeast that will slowly merge together. Expect with lower convective temperatures today that we should have an earlier onset of storms. Isolated cells could pop up at anytime, as they still are just to our north in IND's area and another now in Marion county, KY. Some of the high-res guidance is focusing on our northwest counties, such as Dubois County, IN, for initiation by late morning. The RAP picks up on this potential likely because of a shortwave moving into western Missouri at this hour. These storms could then set the stage for more scattered to numerous activity areawide by mid afternoon. Storms will be slow moving today, with main push being from outflow boundaries from other storms. Once again, we will have to watch for localized flooding, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of storms. Tonight, convection will be slow to wane, but should become isolated in nature by midnight. Expect lows a few degrees colder than this morning, as we do end up with a slight northerly component of the surface wind. .Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 Thursday into early next week will feature a stretch of warm and unsettled weather. Upper troughing will continue to develop and propagate across the region Thursday into Saturday. The 500 mb low is forecast to pivot right over the forecast area Friday into Saturday. So we'll have upper level support in place for at least chance PoPs in multiple periods, but the upper level flow will remain weak overall. On Thursday, the atmosphere will remain warm, moist, and somewhat unstable. Compared to recent days, lower thicknesses and copious cloud cover will limit surface heating/destabilization. Afternoon highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely during the afternoon hours. Low-level convergence is weak and uncertain, and leftover outflow boundaries from Wednesday night may provide a source of lift. Weak low-level boundary lifts north on Friday, supporting at least chance PoPs and a slight chance for a storm with the upper low overhead as well. The whole system takes on a negative tilt and pivots northeast of the area Friday night into Saturday. Highest precip chances for Saturday are across the eastern forecast area. A relative lull in rain is expected starting either Sat morning or afternoon and continuing through Saturday night. Highs Saturday should reach the low to mid 80s. A low pressure system forecast to track through the Midwest and Great Lakes will bring additional rain and thunderstorm chances to the area Sunday and Monday. PoPs increase from northwest to southeast Sunday-Sunday night as a cold front approaches. Sunday will likely be the warmest day in the long term, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. But temperatures won't fall all that much behind the front next week. The front actually weakens quite a bit and slows/stalls over the area Monday-Monday night. If this scenario plays out, this would bring a good chance for additional thunderstorms Monday afternoon as the boundary layer heats up. Forecast for Tuesday is uncertain, but will hold on to chance PoPs across the south for now with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 A humid, stagnant atmosphere will support scattered pop-up showers and storms this afternoon and early this evening. Where ever a cell does form, locally heavy downpours can be expected, but they won't last long in any one spot. Convection will wane this evening with quiet conditions overnight. Some light BR/HZ may form by morning. Tomorrow will be more of the same with scattered storms popping up, especially in the afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && Update...13 Short Term...RJS Long Term...EBW Aviation...13
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 1154 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-171600- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 1154 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 /1054 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the region. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, brief gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue for the next several days. The risk of heavy rainfall will increase on Thursday with deeper moisture in place. A cold front moving through the region should bring additional thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should report any flooded roads or creeks as well as stronger wind gusts. 13
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
136 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
KYZ035-040-161800-
Woodford-Franklin-
136 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AFFECTING THE
FRANKFORT AREA...
At 134 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms just west and
just east of Frankfort. Movement was east at only 10 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Bryant, Slickway, Benson, Capital City Airport, Broadville
Manor, Woodlake, Peaks Mill, Switzer, and Harvieland.
Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
brief localized flooding especially in the city of Frankfort.
LAT...LON 3830 8474 3824 8473 3813 8481 3812 8498
3813 8498 3832 8496 3835 8496 3836 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 287DEG 10KT 3828 8490 3816 8492
13Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
149 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
KYZ035-040-161815-
Woodford-Franklin-
149 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN IN
THE FRANKFORT AREA...
At 148 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms in and near
Frankfort. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Slickway, Capital City Airport, Broadville Manor,
Woodlake, Switzer, Harvieland, Kennebec, Big Eddy, and Jett.
Torrential rainfall is occurring, and may cause localized flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Winds to 50 mph are enough to break branches from trees. Please use
caution.
LAT...LON 3827 8474 3823 8473 3810 8479 3811 8487
3812 8487 3811 8488 3812 8496 3829 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 294DEG 9KT 3826 8485 3815 8489
13Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
KYZ036-037-041>043-049-162000-
Bourbon-Scott-Fayette-Nicholas-Clark-Harrison-
300 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...
NORTHERN CLARK...BOURBON...NICHOLAS...NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND
HARRISON COUNTIES...
At 258 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Cynthiana to
Highlands. Movement was east at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms and
localized flooding will be possible. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.
Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Paris, Cynthiana, Carlisle, Meadowthorpe, Thoroughbred
Acres, Northland, Highlands, Bryan Station and Breckinridge.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3830 8385 3812 8408 3804 8404 3805 8455
3856 8440 3858 8420 3855 8421 3855 8416
3852 8418 3849 8417 3843 8400 3842 8400
3844 8397 3836 8392 3836 8389 3835 8390
3836 8387 3833 8386 3834 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 260DEG 31KT 3849 8417 3810 8450
MJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
302 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
KYZ039-040-047-048-056-162000-
Mercer-Woodford-Jessamine-Garrard-Anderson-
302 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MERCER...
SOUTHERN WOODFORD...NORTHWESTERN GARRARD...EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON AND
JESSAMINE COUNTIES...
At 302 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Versailles to near Harrodsburg.
Movement was east at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.
Locations impacted include...
Nicholasville, Harrodsburg, Wilmore, Burgin, Oregon, Bondville,
Talmage, Jessamine, Logana and Stone.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3784 8446 3785 8447 3784 8449 3782 8447
3780 8447 3778 8452 3777 8452 3777 8451
3776 8451 3775 8450 3767 8454 3779 8494
3807 8484 3793 8447 3792 8447 3791 8445
3787 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 278DEG 12KT 3800 8471 3774 8478
MJThe Louisville radar (KLVX), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:21 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Broadcast media reported that high water covered Broadway near Rucker Avenue in Georgetown, Kentucky.
Broadcast media reported Burton Pike near Cincinnati Road was impassable due to high water.
The Emergency Manager reported Gerthie Gentry Road was impassable due to flood waters. The water was going down at the time of the report.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 746867, 746868, 746869.