California, 2018

Heavy Rain in California, May 16 to 17, 2018

May 16 to 17, 2018 · NWS REV · 7 events in 4 counties and zones

S. on the 16th and persisted through the 17th.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS REV wrote it up.

A broad area of upper level low pressure moved into the western part of the U.S. on the 16th and persisted through the 17th. Bands of moderate to heavy rain developed north of the main center of the low stretching across the northern Sierra and into far western Nevada on the 16th.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 4:40 AM PST, 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 4:40 AM PST, 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
540 AM PDT Wed May 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Quick update to add thunderstorms to all areas this morning. A lot
of buildups seen this morning, and we have already seen a
thunderstorm develop over Galena Ridge west of Reno. The overall
forecast remains on track. While cloud cover may be an issue for
some areas this morning, there are many breaks currently. Some
strong storms will occur, and it still looks most likely from
Mineral County north into Pershing County where the most breaks
are this morning. There is also a noticeable break north of Reno
from Eastern Plumas and Lassen Counties into the Black Rock
Desert. If this lasts, strong storms are possible here as well.
Main threats will be gusty winds, and pea to marble hail.

With more breaks this morning, heavy rain could be more of an
issue this afternoon with stronger storms. Something to watch
for...X

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 AM PDT Wed May 16 2018/

SHORT TERM...

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected
throughout the region today. The main weather threats today will
be periods of heavy rain, possibility of accumulating small hail
(snow above ~8-8500'), and lightning. Ponding on roads, and low
visibility will likely be the biggest hazards for transportation
with the potential for isolated minor to moderate flash
flooding depending on just how much storms are able to develop.

Precipitation is expected to start in the late morning in the
Sierra and central western Nevada with a few hours of heavy rain
and high elevation snow, especially around the Tahoe Basin and
in the Reno/Carson City area. The area with the most persistent
signal for significant heavy rain potential and runoff concerns
is around Churchill and Pershing Counties during the late
afternoon and into the early evening. It's also possible the
northern Sierra and Lassen counties could be a heavy rain threat
later in the afternoon, but clouds will have a better chance of
inhibiting convection in that area.

The cut-off low pressure that has been spinning over the region
this last week is finally being pushed north of the Nevada border
this morning as another area of low pressure is currently moving
into the central California coast. This will create a wide area of
divergence aloft over the region and bring a new round of upper
level forcing. Clouds are expected to inhibit some storm
development today, but it currently looks like there will be
enough clearing and instability to get stronger storms to form,
especially around Mono/Mineral counties where the best chance for
clear skies will be this morning.

Model simulations are pointing towards the possibility of a
mesoscale complex of storms developing around Mineral county this
afternoon and moving into Churchill and Pershing counties later
in the day. This type of convective development is very difficult
to predict but most models are simulating a similar scenario with
the potential for 1-2 inches of precipitation if this feature
develops.

One question that persists today is how much cloud cover inhibits
surface heating that could add to the instability. The band of
light showers in the region overnight moved north faster than
models had forecast with current IR satellite observations showing
good clearing in the southern part of the CWA. It is really
difficult to say how much increasing cloud cover could hamper
storm development, but the latest guidance is pointing towards
some strong thunderstorm development today.

Lighter showers are expected on Thursday with only a slight chance
of thunderstorm development. By Friday it looks like the main
area of concern will be in the central and southern Sierra where
thunderstorms could develop with potential for heavy rain and high
elevation snow. -Zach

LONG TERM...Saturday into next week...

It is slowly becoming a bit clearer on the timing of the upper low,
with the models and ensembles in better agreement for the weekend.
They are also in better agreement with timing of the next low for
Monday into Tuesday, although the track is still hazy.

For the weekend, the GFS/EC have a weak wave moving through in light
west flow aloft between the upper lows. Instability is not overly
impressive, but will keep the slight chance to low chance for the
Sierra and adjacent eastern slopes. Sunday the low approaches, but
the southwest flow ahead of it will increase. For now, the track
appears to be toward the SF bay area which would put the best
forcing north of a KSVE-KLOL line, but this could change. With the
stronger SW flow, Sierra convection will be hard pressed to form
unless it's early in the afternoon. Have the best chances east of
there and then where the best forcing is for Sunday. SW winds will
make a decent appearance, with peak gusts of 25-30 mph. Keep in
mind, this is the best idea for now, but with the way the models
have been changing, this forecast may be way off.

Monday into Tuesday, the area will be affected by the upper low.
Where it tracks will determine best chances. It could end up being
similar to what we see tomorrow, or just generic thunderstorms. Will
keep the chance pops going both days area-wide with a decrease
Wednesday as the low pulls away. Temperatures will be near average
through the period, although Monday could be cooler depending on
track of the low. X

AVIATION...
FG will continue around the Tahoe terminals and Sierra Valleys this
morning with LIFR conditions. Expect it to burn off between 15=16Z.

The upper low will move in today with High chances of SHRA and
embedded TSRA for Reno-Tahoe area 17-23Z, about 80-90% for each
terminal. Some small hail is also likely to occur with MVFR to
local IFR conditions and mtn obscuration in the showers/storms.
These showers and storms will move north and east during the
evening. 70-90% chances for periods of MVFR CIGS/VIS at
KSVE/KLOL/KNFL 23-06Z this evening. KMMH/KHTH will still see storms
around, but chances of those terminals being affected are less, 40-
50% and 18-23Z. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorms, where
peak gusts could approach 35-40 kts.

More thunderstorms Thursday, but not as widespread with chances 40-
50% for any terminal. Wind gusts to 40kts and small hail primary
threats. Thunderstorm threat a little less Friday into Saturday
before possibly increasing again early next week with another upper
low. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

7 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Lassen

When
May 16, 5:00 AM PST to May 17, 5:00 AM PST
Where
Lassen County, 2.8 mi E of Crest
Reported by
RAWS
Coordinates
40.731, -120.317

Ravendale RAWS, 5 miles south-southeast of Ravendale (elevation 5450 feet) reported 0.62 inches of rainfall in a 24-hour period from 16 May 0500PST to 17 May 0500PST.

Heavy Rain, Nevada

When
May 16, 6:00 AM PST to May 17, 7:30 PM PST
Where
Nevada County, 2.06 mi NNW of Flonston
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
39.428, -120.033

Mesonet station FARC1, 2 miles northwest of Floriston (elevation 5188 feet) reported 0.67 inches of rainfall from 16 May 0600PST to 17 May 1930PST.

Heavy Rain, Placer

When
May 16, 6:00 AM PST to 2:00 PM PST
Where
Placer County, 30.51 mi NW of Sorensens
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
39.136, -120.219

Mesonet station WRDC1, 2 miles south of Alpine Meadows (elevation 6764 feet) reported 0.60 inches of rainfall from 16 May 0600PST to 1400PST.

Heavy Rain, Sierra

When
May 16, 6:35 AM PST to May 17, 4:35 AM PST
Where
Sierra County, 9.19 mi SSE of Loyalton
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
39.566, -120.161

Mesonet station TT142, 6 miles north-northwest of Stampede Reservoir (elevation 6260 feet) reported 1.14 inches of rainfall from 16 May 0635PST to 17 May 0435PST.

Heavy Rain, Sierra

When
May 16, 7:00 AM PST to May 17, 7:00 AM PST
Where
Sierra County, 1.07 mi W of Sierraville Drwtr Ar
Reported by
COOP Observer
Coordinates
39.580, -120.370

COOP observer station SERC1, Sierraville Ranger Station reported 0.53 inches of rainfall in a 24-hour period from 16 May 0700PST to 17 May 0700PST.

Heavy Rain, Lassen

When
May 16, 11:59 AM PST to May 17, 6:59 AM PST
Where
Lassen County, 6.91 mi E of Madeline
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
41.054, -120.338

Mesonet station BDOC1, 6 miles east of Madeline (elevation 5927 feet) reported 0.93 inches of rainfall from 16 May 1159PST to 17 May 0659PST.

Heavy Rain, Lassen

When
May 16, 12:04 PM PST to May 17, 5:04 AM PST
Where
Lassen County, 12.6 mi NNW of Eagle Lake Resort
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
40.756, -120.892

Mesonet station GORC1, 9 miles northwest of Spaulding (elevation 6215 feet) reported 0.66 inches of rainfall from 16 May 1204PST to 17 May 0504PST.

What these are

Heavy Rain
Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in California, May 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 762276, 762271, 762273, 762122, 762274, 762123, 762272.