A slow moving line of thunderstorms developed from mid to late this afternoon across central Kentucky. As this line progressed east into the Bluegrass region of eastern Kentucky, these storms increased in coverage as rainfall rates increased.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A slow moving line of thunderstorms developed from mid to late this afternoon across central Kentucky. As this line progressed east into the Bluegrass region of eastern Kentucky, these storms increased in coverage as rainfall rates increased. This led to instances of flash flooding across portions of Bath and Montgomery Counties. These storms continued to move east into the evening hours, creating additional flash flooding from Morehead to west of Sandy Hook.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 2:51 PM EST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 351 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018 The short term period will feature above normal temperatures and chances of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Temperatures will not be quite as warm as yesterday and the day before, due to widespread cloud cover and precip, but will still top out in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday. Forecast lows the next two nights will likely be in the lower 60s. The best chance for rain should be Thursday and Thursday night, as a frontal boundary moves slowly across the area. The primary concern today and tomorrow will be locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding due to this. Although we do not expect widespread flooding to occur, the slow movement of any thunderstorms and the presence of large amounts of low level moisture will bring the potential for localized flooding issues where heavy rain and thunderstorms occur. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 351 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018 A warm and unsettled pattern will continue late this week into next week across eastern Kentucky. An upper level low/trough will be positioned across the western Ohio River Valley as a surface low noses northward through the Tennessee Valley. Showers and storms will be a good bet by late morning through the afternoon, particularly nearer the Lake Cumberland and Bluegrass regions. Downslope flow farther east amid the higher terrain may initially cut down on rainfall totals there. Nonetheless, precipitable water values increasing to near 1.75 inches will promote the threat for flooding. Storm motions will at least increase from previous days with approach of larger scale synoptic forcing, potentially shaving off a larger amount of flooding potential. Heights will rise Saturday as the upper low fills and lifts to the north, subsequently bringing diminishing precipitation chances later in the day as shortwave ridging approaches from the west and relatively drier air filters in. Sunday may also bring a relative lull in overall precipitation chances, prior to another uptick into Sunday night or early next week as energy in eastern Canada and additional support stemming from a system moving from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest bring another front south into the Ohio Valley. This would likely spell continued shower/storm chances into next week as high temperatures generally remain in the low-mid 80s with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2018 A slow moving frontal boundary, along with weak impulses of energy in the upper atmosphere, will keep a chance of scattered showers and storms in the forecast through out the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to prevail most of the time through out the period, but any given airport could experience MVFR or worse conditions when affected directly by a thunderstorm or intense rain shower. MVFR conditions due to fog or low cloud based may occur at the TAF sites between 4 and 11Z on Thursday. Winds in general should be light and variable, but could become stronger and quite gusty during any thunderstorms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...AR
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 355 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-171100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 355 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon through Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible through tonight. The stronger storms will occur through early this evening and could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Localized instances of high water or flash flooding are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Thursday through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms from Thursday into Friday could produce locally heavy rain at times. Localized instances of high water or flash flooding are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. JP/CGAL/AR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1119 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0353 PM TSTM WND DMG EAST BERNSTADT 37.19N 84.12W
05/15/2018 LAUREL KY 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ON HWY 490.
0422 PM HAIL EGYPT 37.31N 83.90W
05/15/2018 E0.88 INCH JACKSON KY EMERGENCY MNGR
DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT THE JUNCTION OF 412 AND KY
3443.
0445 PM HAIL PAYNE GAP 37.16N 82.66W
05/15/2018 E0.75 INCH LETCHER KY PUBLIC
REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
0542 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW FISHPOND LAKE 37.16N 82.70W
05/15/2018 LETCHER KY PUBLIC
WATER FLOWING ACROSS WEBB BRANCH ROAD SEEN ON SOCIAL
MEDIA.
0610 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W FISHPOND LAKE 37.16N 82.69W
05/15/2018 LETCHER KY 911 CALL CENTER
REPORT THAT PARTS OF HWY 3406 ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
0610 PM FLASH FLOOD ENE WRIGHT 37.16N 82.73W
05/15/2018 LETCHER KY 911 CALL CENTER
CHARLIE WHITE LANE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODED ROADWAY.
0621 PM FLASH FLOOD W FLEMING-NEON 37.19N 82.71W
05/15/2018 LETCHER KY PUBLIC
SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE SHOWING ROADWAY IMPASSABLE DUE TO
FLOODING.
0703 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSE TOLLIVER TOWN 37.17N 82.70W
05/15/2018 LETCHER KY PUBLIC
FLASH FLOODING DISPLACED CULVERT NEAR BILL MOORE BRANCH
&&
TBREWERThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:33 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
County Emergency Management reported several roadways containing at least half a foot of flowing water near Flat Creek and west of Owingsville, leading to a vehicle becoming stranded on U.S. Highway 60 near the Montgomery County line.
A citizen reported water flowing over a bridge on Aarons Run Road near Bunker Hill Road northwest of Judy.
Emergency Management observed water flowing over Flemingsburg Road about four miles north of Morehead. Additionally, a local creek in Morehead quickly overspilled its banks, leading to water flowing down a local road.
Local Emergency Management reported water flowing over Kentucky Route 7 near Wells Creek Road southwest of Sandy Hook. Crews were called to rescue a dog stuck in high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 745282, 745283, 745284, 745285.