Isolated thunderstorms developed as the atmosphere became strongly unstable during the afternoon and early evening hours. Mixed layer capes were near 3000 j/kg.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed as the atmosphere became strongly unstable during the afternoon and early evening hours. Mixed layer capes were near 3000 j/kg. The storms drifted slowly south and southwest around a strong upper level high centered over the Missouri Valley. An isolated damaging wind gust was observed with the strongest cell.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 2:20 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
320 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
The excessive heat today that prompted a warning to be issued
this morning produced widespread heat indices in the 108 to 115
range. KPAH ASOS managed a sweltering 114 this afternoon.
Will need to monitor some isolated convection down near the TN
late this afternoon, and also an outflow boundary heading south
along the Wabash River Valley due to the high instability in place
across the region. Not expecting much of an organized severe
threat, but any storm that goes up in this extreme heat could
produce some decent wind gusts 40-50 MPH or so.
The good news is that a break from the extreme heat seems in
order, at least in temporarily in the short term. The upper ridge
that has been responsible for the heat is expected to retrograde
back to the west on tonight/Fri. This will allow a cold front to
push south into and through the region. There will not be much
overall moisture return ahead of the front, and upper support also
looks minimal as the front cross area. This, along with the
negative diurnal timing of the front, should serve to limit
thunderstorm coverage to scattered at best. Better news is that
extensive cloud cover Friday will likely hold temps down in the
80s at most locations, and give us at least a temporary break
from the excessive heat streak. In fact, we should see most
locations fall back well into the lower and mid 60s Friday night.
Some cooler areas along the I-64 corridor may even see some
readings drop into the upper half of 50s by sunrise Sat. Saturday
still looks like the pic day of the weekend, and most likely the
pic day of for the next 7 to 10 days. High temperatures will stay
in the 80s with a nice northeast breeze and much more comfortable
humidity levels.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
As an expansive upper ridge (594+ decameters) gets re-established
across the PAH forecast area on Sun, an inverted surface trof to the
southwest of the center of high surface pressure could be a focus
for possible shower and tstm activity in the increasingly unstable
atmosphere, mainly across the southern half of the region. Low level
winds will have begun to gain at least some southerly component by
then, thus surface dewpoints are expected to return to the lower
70s, providing some additional fuel for deep moist convection Sun
afternoon.
The setup of the winds and low level moisture should maintain the
possibility that isolated to scattered shower and tstm activity will
linger into Mon and Tue afternoons for parts of the region,
according to the 12Z GFS/CMC. However, the 00Z ECMWF had a drier
forecast, with the inverted trof depicted farther south than the
GFS/CMC (but the 12Z ECMWF version was more in line with the other
12Z models). Thus, at this time, PoPs at any one location will not
be any higher than low chance through at least mid week. Many areas
will remain dry.
Temps are expected to inch up a degree or two with each passing day
in the extended forecast, and lows should rebound to the upper
60s/lower 70s. By midweek, afternoon heat indices are expected to
return to the 100 to 105 range again.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds expected. Bases will be above
vfr thresholds. The cumulus clouds will dissipate around sunset.
Winds will generally be light.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
086-087-109>112-114.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ100-107-108.
IN...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
KYZ001>022.
&&
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...GMHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 352 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-061000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 352 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for most of the region until 8 PM. The heat index will peak between 108 and 114 degrees this afternoon. Please refer to the Excessive Heat Warning product for more details. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight. The main hazards will be lightning and heavy rain, though any storm that forms during the heat of the day or early evening could also contain strong and gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur mainly Sunday through Tuesday over parts of the region. The main hazards will be locally heavy rain and lightning. Heat indices of 100 to 105 will be possible from mid week on. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:35 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Two trees were blown down over a roadway in the city limits of Clinton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 762098.