Moderate to heavy rain during the first few days of the month sent the Green River above flood stage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Moderate to heavy rain during the first few days of the month sent the Green River above flood stage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 3, 8:05 PM CST, 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 805 PM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 For aviation section only. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 340 AM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 A secondary cold front will rotate south into and through the region early today. This front will usher in much colder temperatures and plenty of cloud cover, but no precipitation is expected at this time. High temps will stay in the 40s with a brisk northwest wind. Unseasonably cold air will continue to funnel south into the region tonight/Tue and into Wednesday as Canadian high pressure sinks south through the Plains and into the Gulf Coast states. In fact, high temperatures on Tuesday are not expected to make it out of the 30s over much of the forecast area. An upper level disturbance will serve to keep skies cloudy on Tuesday, and may even bring a touch of light snow or flurries to locations along/east of the MS River. Not expecting any impacts at this time tho. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 Forecast models remain in relatively good agreement through much of the week, which lends higher than average confidence to start the long term. Continued model variability by the end of the week lowers confidence in the eventual impact of a storm system forecast to track across the Deep South over the weekend. Starting with daybreak Thursday, high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Smokey Mountains with southwest winds across our immediate forecast area. This should give temperatures a slight nudge higher, with highs on Thursday forecast to range from 40 to 45 degrees. Unfortunately, this slight moderation appears short lived as a cold front is progged to make passage Thursday afternoon and evening. The passage of the front will result in a small chance of light precipitation, which should be primarily in the form of rain. A few snowflakes are possible late Thursday afternoon into the evening if enough moisture is left over as the cold air filters in behind the front. Dry weather should take hold late Thursday night and much of Friday as cold high pressure builds south from the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. A storm system currently out over the Pacific is forecast to track across California into the southern Plains late in the week, then into the Deep South over the weekend. As moisture from this system overruns the cold air mass at the surface, it is forecast to bring the potential for wintry precipitation to the forecast area Friday night into Saturday night. While model timing remains fairly stable, the eventual track of the low is still in flux and is ultimately the key as to how much and what type of precipitation eventually falls. Over the past 24 hours, all models have trended south with the low and its associated moisture. The end result is a forecast that has relatively more frozen and less liquid precipitation. At the same time, overall precipitation totals have been adjusted lower to account for less moisture due to the southward shift in the low's track. Keep in mind the current forecast is a blend of a number of forecast models. Given the amount of uncertainly inherent in forecasting a winter storm 5 to 6 days out, potentially significant changes to the forecast are possible, and it all hinges on the track of the low. If the low tracks further north, less frozen and more liquid/mixed precipitation can be expected. If the low tracks even further south than currently forecast, then most of this event may end up passing by south of the area. Continue to monitor forecast updates in the coming days. && .AVIATION... Issued at 805 PM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 While northwesterly winds will generally remain below 12 knots throughout the 24 hour TAF period, any remaining VFR cigs are forecast to lower everywhere to MVFR levels as the night goes on. Some improvement may be seen west of the MS River Tue afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...RJP AVIATION...DB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 348 AM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-041100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 348 AM CST Mon Dec 3 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Mixed wintry precipitation is possible Friday night into Saturday. At this time, it is still too early to speculate on specific precipitation types, amounts, and potential impacts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Green River. Some low-lying woods and fields near the river were inundated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 794061.