Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 30, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

The latest models early this afternoon continues to suggest the
warm mid level temperatures will limit the chances for convection
early this evening along a surface boundary that will be located
near the Colorado border and northwest Kansas. Will however
continue with 15 to 20 percent chance for thunderstorms in this
area between 6 pm and 9 pm to cover the potential for a few
evening storms along this boundary. The better chances for
convection overnight will be from 9 pm and 4 am as an upper level
trough crosses western Kansas. 850mb warm air advection and 0-1km
forcing will both be improving ahead of this upper level trough.
Downdraft cape and model soundings suggesting strong gusty winds
will be possible with these storms overnight. Quarter hail also
can not be ruled out early tonight.

By early Sunday morning an area of high pressure will begin to
build into western Kansas as the cold front moves across Oklahoma
and eastern Kansas. Based on the clearing skies expected during
the day and 850mb temperatures forecast at 18z Sunday and 00z
Monday it appears the highs Sunday afternoon will be mainly in the
mid 80s. The exception will be in portions of south central
Kansas where highs could reach the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Westerly downslope flow on Monday will become more southwesterly
through mid week as an upper level trough begins to establish
itself along the coast of California and an upper high moves
westward across the eastern United States. The latest forecast
warming trend in the 850mb to 700mb level early in the week across
western Kansas continues to support highs rebounding back into
the 90s on Monday with 95 to 100 degree highs still looking likely
Tuesday through at least mid week. Several subtle waves will be
embedded in the developing southwest flow early in the week which
may result in a slight chance for storms Monday night but Tuesday
through mid week any thunderstorms that may develop late day and
early in the evening appears to stay west of the Colorado border.

Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through late
week as a west to east upper level ridge axis builds into the
central Plains. Weak flow aloft will continue to favor any late
day/evening convection to stay west of Colorado. Highs will be in
the 90s but with some higher dew points returning the afternoon
heat index readings could easily climb into the 100 to 103 degree
range late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

VCTS or TSRA possible for all TAF sites from 02Z-06Z. Best chance
of thunderstorms looks to affect HYS from 03Z-07Z. Cloud ceilings
should come up by 12Z and gradually clear through the rest of the
TAF time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  88  66  93 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  62  86  65  93 /  50   0  10  10
EHA  62  85  66  94 /  30  10  10  20
LBL  66  86  66  94 /  40  10  10  10
HYS  64  87  64  93 /  70   0   0  20
P28  71  89  69  94 /  60  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
348 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-010900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
348 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018 /248 AM MDT Sat Jun 30 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across central
and portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon through this
evening. The main threat will be quarter to golf ball size hail
and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible
across southwest Kansas late Monday afternoon through Monday
evening. There is a marginal risk for severe weather.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late afternoon through the
evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

32

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
525 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

KSZ090-302330-
Barber KS-
525 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARBER COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, the public reported strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Alva to 3 miles west of Burlington to 2 miles
northeast of Great Salt Plains Lake. Movement was north at 20 mph.
Reports of 50 to 55 mph winds have been recorded in Alva and
Cherokee Oklahoma.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kiowa, Hardtner, Sharon and Hazelton.

LAT...LON 3700 9872 3712 9872 3739 9836 3738 9835
      3700 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 186DEG 18KT 3678 9865 3689 9848 3675 9816

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND GST     MEDICINE LODGE ASOS SIT 37.28N 98.55W
06/30/2018  M52 MPH          BARBER             KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION P28, MEDICINE LODGE ASOS SITE.

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
922 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

KSZ043-044-010315-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
922 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCOTT AND WESTERN LANE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 922 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorm outflow
winds 8 miles west of Scott State Lake, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Dighton, Grigston, Healy, Scott State Lake, Modoc,
Shallow Water, Manning, Amy and Shields.

LAT...LON 3870 10044 3827 10042 3827 10112 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 284DEG 26KT 3867 10107

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1017 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

KSZ043>045-010415-
Lane KS-Scott KS-Ness KS-
1017 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NESS...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT
AND LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1017 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Pendennis to 3 miles south
of Amy. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dighton, Ransom, Utica, Alamota, Beeler, Pendennis, Amy, Shields and
Arnold.

LAT...LON 3869 9988 3827 9997 3827 10074 3870 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 272DEG 27KT 3877 10041 3843 10062

TATRO