Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 24, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Morning convection has zapped any instability and the atmosphere has
been pretty worked over. As a result, the chances of severe weather
is much lower. We are still expecting some evening storms, however.
This activity could be marginally severe with wind and hail threats
along with heavy rainfall. Otherwise, lows tonight will be in the 50s
and 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Storm chances will be very low during the extended period. A longwave
ridge will build over the Central Plains. Highs next week look to be
hot and in the upper 90s to around 100. Mild lows in the 60s and 70s
will prevail during this typical Summer pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

A large thunderstorm complex will affect all terminals through
this TAF period. The best time frame for most terminals will be
0230 to 0600 UTC. Very strong winds at or above 45 knot gusts will
be likely with these storms. After the storm complex pushes
through, there will still be a couple hours of trailing-stratiform
region precipitation with infrequent lightning and variable winds.
Winds should settle in the 0900-1200 UTC time frame and eventually
become westerly. West winds will prevail during the day Monday at
12 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  87  67  97 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  59  86  65  97 /  60   0  10   0
EHA  57  87  66  99 /  60   0  10   0
LBL  60  89  66  99 /  60   0  10   0
HYS  61  86  66  96 /  70  10   0  10
P28  66  88  68  97 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
300 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 /200 AM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across western Kansas
for Sunday. These storms are capable of producing hail up to the
size of baseballs along with damaging wind up to 75 mph. Heavy
rainfall is also possible as well with supercell growth resulting
in areas of localized flooding. An isolated tornado or two also
cannot be ruled out at this time.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Upper level ridging over the western high plains and lee side
troughing over eastern Colorado will give way to much warmer
temperatures nearing 100 degrees and gusty south to southwest
winds up to 30-35 mph through the end of the week. Heat index
values will be in the 100-105 degree range, especially in the
eastern and southeastern counties of the viewing area where
relative humidity values will be higher in the 40 percent range.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  No hazards.

* Tuesday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Thursday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Friday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for southwestern Kansas after 4PM
CDT.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
554 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018

KSZ061-250100-
Hamilton KS-
554 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
MDT...

At 554 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southwest of Towner to 12 miles north
of Two Buttes Reservoir. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Syracuse and Coolidge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10155 3775 10154 3775 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 293DEG 27KT 3842 10212 3782 10254

UMSCHEID