Although the majority of severe weather within the region concentrated barely to the south, east and especially north of this six-county North Central Kansas area, it was still an active Tuesday afternoon and evening of convection for the local area, featuring one severe-criteria wind report and fairly widespread heavy rain. m.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Although the majority of severe weather within the region concentrated barely to the south, east and especially north of this six-county North Central Kansas area, it was still an active Tuesday afternoon and evening of convection for the local area, featuring one severe-criteria wind report and fairly widespread heavy rain. The lone, marginally-severe report consisted of estimated 60 MPH gusts in Burr Oak at 7:30 p.m. CDT. Rainfall-wise, the vast majority of the area received at least 1, and large portions of five of the six counties (except Phillips) received at least 2-3 of rather-needed rain. However, somewhat excessive amounts of 3-4+ occurred in much of Mitchell, Smith and eastern Jewell counties, with some of the highest official 24-hour totals (NWS coop and CoCoRaHS observers) featuring: 4.63 at Formoso, 4.33 near Webber, 4.30 at Smith Center and 3.87 at Cawker City. Although there were surely instances of fairly minor flooding and possibly even brief flash flooding, ground truth reports were rather limited. However, one automated river gauge in the area detected minor flooding, as the gauge along the White Rock Creek east of Burr Oak eventually crested around 16.6 ft. on the morning of the 21st (flood stage is 15 ft.).
Breaking down event evolution/timing, isolated strong storms bubbled up intermittently over mainly Mitchell/Jewell counties between 3:30-6:00 p.m. CDT. Then during the ensuing three hours, convection increased in coverage and intensity across the area as a whole, due in part to one storm complex building southward out of Nebraska, and another brushing into the area out of west-central Kansas. By around 9 p.m. CDT, the strongest storms had departed to the east-southeast. However, between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m. CDT, the southern fringes of the local area were skirted by the northern edges of a squall line tracking through central Kansas, bringing another uptick in gusty sub-severe winds and heavy rain before all activity finally faded for the night. Closing with some meteorological background, this day held well-anticipated potential for severe storms and heavy rain, as low-amplitude shortwave energy tracked into Kansas around the southeast periphery of a larger-scale trough/closed low centered over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a fairly well-defined and generally west-east oriented quasi-stationary front stretched near the Nebraska-Kansas-border, right across the heart of the local area. This promoted an environment characterized by east-southeast breezes, afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s-low 90s F and dewpoints in the mid 60s-low 70s F. During the height of evening convection, the mesoscale environment featured between 30-35 knots of deep-layer wind shear and mixed-layer CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 19, 12:55 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
155 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018
Attention remains on the potential for severe weather and heavy
rain/flooding this evening and tonight. The weather pattern remains
active with a potent closed upper low edging east of the northern
Rockies with a lead shortwave lifting out of the base of the trough
across CO, which will interact with a frontal boundary across the
plains later today/tonight. The surface boundary this morning was
oriented from southeast CO, northeast to KHYS to K61 to KLNK and the
front has lifted a little farther to the north early this
afternoon.
Short term models suggest a couple areas for storm development, with
the first round of storms initiating along the front across western
KS/southwest Neb with continued development along the boundary
through the evening. While to the west, convection over Wyoming is
expected to sustain and reach our area after dark and move through
during the overnight hours. The environment will be favorable for
strong to severe storms especially focused along the boundary for
our southern zones, as instability averages 2500 j/kg with
effective shear around 30kts. The primary storm threats will be
large hail and damaging winds, however an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out through the evening.
Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding is the next concern
from the storms with precipitable water values of 1.5" to 1.75"
which are 150 to 200 percent of normal for this time of year. While
it's been fairly dry for most areas, the precipitation rates and
amounts from the storms is a concern. The Belgrade area picked up
1.5" of rain in just 20 minutes this morning and rainfall rates of 1
to 2 inches an hour may be realized. Given the potential for heavy
rain and flooding, the flash flood watch has been expanded farther
north along the boundary where confidence in heavy rain potential is
higher. Rain amounts across our central zones is a little more
uncertain, in between or on the northern edge of convection in the
evening and on the southern end of the high plains storms tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing/linger into the day
Wednesday or redevelop under the influence of the mid/upper low
pressure system across the plains, but severe weather chances
diminish and focus along the frontal boundary to our east. We've
been talking about the arrival of cooler weather for awhile now, and
temps Wednesday will reflect the post frontal airmass with highs in
the 70s to low 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018
Models are not in complete agreement on the progression of the upper
low across the plains on Thursday with the NAM the slowest and
farthest south and west, tracking the system through eastern KS vs
Kansas City area on other models. Regardless, on the back side of
the system, wraparound showers will remain possible through the
day. Thursday will also see a continuation of the cool conditions
with highs mainly 70 to 75 degrees, and as previous shift
mentioned, gusty north winds may make it feel even cooler.
Friday is still shaping up to be dry in between weather systems in
shortwave ridging/rising heights behind the departing upper low.
Temps will recover to some degree, but still below normal in the 70s
to low 80s. The pattern turns active again Friday night and
continues through the weekend and into next week as a series of
shortwave troughs cross the Central Plains. While each day will
not be a rainout, multiple chances for showers and storms exist,
providing the chance for beneficial rains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018
Complicated TAF period with low clouds this morning at IFR, which
have recently raised to MVFR. Generally expect MVFR clouds through
the day with chances for showers and storms increasing heading
into the evening and overnight hours. Strong to severe storms are
possible, with hail/wind the primary hazards. Brunt of precip
should move east of the terminals Wednesday morning with low cloud
remaining possible into the daylight hours.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NEZ076-077-
082>087.
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...FayHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Hastings NE 148 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 201200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 148 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, primary from 4 pm and into the overnight hours. The storms will be capable of producing large hail the size of ping pong balls and damaging winds to 70 mph. In addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, primarily southwest of the tri-cities. Areas of heavy rainfall accompanying the storms may lead to localized flooding. A flash flood watch is in effect for all of north central Kansas and locations south of a line from Cambridge to Clay Center and Geneva, Nebraska. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Except for the daytime of Friday, there are intermittent chances for thunderstorms each day through Monday. Severe weather is unlikely Wednesday through Friday, and it is too early to accurately evaluate the severe risk into the weekend and early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and this evening. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:02 UTC.
3 heavy rain, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A storm total rainfall amount of 3.87 inches was recorded at Cawker City, with 3.56 inches recorded 10 miles south-southwest of Beloit.
A storm total rainfall amount of 4.63 inches was recorded in Formoso, with 4.33 inches recorded three miles east-northeast of Webber.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches was common across the area. The highest totals included 4.30 inches at Smith Center, 4.20 inches six miles north-northeast of Bellaire, and 3.35 inches in Lebanon.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, June 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 763333, 763334, 762938, 762929.