Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 11 to 12, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
758 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 756 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Storms made an attempt in central KS but fairly quickly died from
apparent combo of capping and dry air aloft. Latest run of HRRR
seems to have captured this fairly well, and supports fairly quick
development 0200-0300 UTC in central KS which then spreads/expands
south during the night. This is consistent with the general model
trends throughout the day. Grids have been updated to delay the
onset slightly. Assuming storms do develop, plan is to expand
severe thunderstorm watch south. -Howerton

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Tonight:
Main focus is thunderstorm potential. Salient issues include
apparently overly generous initialization of 850MB moisture by
1200 UTC models, generally weak upper flow and impressive push on
cold front across western KS this morning. These all make timing
and location of initiation/onset in the forecast area challenging.
Forecast was swayed heavily by combo of afternoon HRRR/RAP
forecasts which suggest storms will ramp up around 0000 UTC and
dive mainly south. Direction appears to be heavily influenced by
cold pool given weak upper flow. Impressive 700-500MB directional
shear suggest some large hail possible early with discrete cells,
with shear decreasing during the event. Storms and precipitation
could linger through daybreak in southeast KS.

Tuesday:
Storms may linger a bit past daybreak Tuesday in southeast KS,
otherwise post frontal/post outflow airmass is expected. Models
seem a bit optimistic with synoptic front across the state during
the day. Assuming storms develop as anticipated tonight, seems
more likely that the effective front will be in OK, with a much
slower return to the north. This would push best chance for
precipitation much later Tuesday night, potentially close to
daybreak Wednesday. Obviously boundary location will impact
temperatures and heat indices as well.

Wednesday-Thursday:
Potential for extensive clouds/precipitation Wednesday, especially
early in the day. This makes maxes Wednesday a bit challenging.
Otherwise, drier and warmer airmass anticipated on Thursday.
Nudged initialization maxes up a bit based on 1000-850mb
thicknesses, and winds up a bit given surface pressure gradient
and 850MB flow. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Increased temperatures/winds slightly on Friday, as per Thursday
forecast. Otherwise dry and relatively warm. While a rogue storm
or two is possible at peak heating, chances of storms too low to
mention for most of this period. Upper ridge axis drifts east and
builds, so only minor changes in heights is forecast. There is
some consensus for small storm chances in northern sections with
approaching front on Monday. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

A frontal system will be moving through the region this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms, some severe storms are possible and
are likely to affect all terminals at some point during the hear
TAF period. Only RSL is not expected to have thunderstorm activity
this evening. Once the thunderstorms pass, there may be some
residual rain for a few hours but VFR conditions will quickly
return. VFR conditions are also expected to dominate during the
day tomorrow for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  94  71  90 /  30  10  40  40
Hutchinson      69  93  68  89 /  30  10  50  40
Newton          70  92  68  88 /  40  10  50  40
ElDorado        70  91  69  87 /  30  10  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   69  94  71  89 /  10  10  40  40
Russell         62  92  65  91 /  10  10  50  20
Great Bend      62  92  66  90 /  10  10  50  20
Salina          67  93  67  90 /  30  10  50  30
McPherson       68  93  67  89 /  30  10  50  30
Coffeyville     67  93  72  89 /  40  20  30  50
Chanute         67  92  70  87 /  50  10  40  50
Iola            67  91  70  86 /  40  10  40  50
Parsons-KPPF    67  93  71  88 /  40  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

MESOSCALE...PJH
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
827 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-130130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
827 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms are expected to develop this evening in central
Kansas, and spread south overnight. Damaging winds up to 65 mph and
locally heavy rain due are the main threats throughout the night.
Golfball sized hail is also possible with any isolated storms
during the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is some uncertainty on the
timing and location. The latest indications are storms are less
likely in the evening and more likely closer to daybreak Wednesday.

Heat indices around 100 degrees are forecast each afternoon from
Thursday through Saturday for much of the area.

There is a chance of strong storms Sunday night in central Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PH/Ketcham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
936 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

KSZ049-051-052-120300-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-Saline KS-
936 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Southeastern Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 1000 PM CDT

* At 936 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Windom, or 9 miles west of
  Mcpherson...moving northeast at 55 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Mcpherson, Lindsborg, Galva, Marquette, Assaria, Gypsum, Ramona,
  Windom, Durham, Tampa, Lost Springs, Mcpherson Airport, Roxbury and
  Bridgeport.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3861 9737 3861 9693 3853 9693 3826 9791
      3858 9792 3880 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 239DEG 49KT 3842 9783

METZGER